Pilot writes to clarify that NOTAM not that reliable:
> Hello, civilian pilot here. You say that a NOTAM expiration of May 1 means it is "likely" that any operation will be completed by then, but that is putting too much weight on this information. NOTAMs are used for short-range flight planning, hours or days in the future. Expiration dates more than a few days out are often just a placeholder, since you have to file some expiration date. It's not unusual at all for NOTAMs with expiration dates months in the future to be abruptly cancelled, or for NOTAMs with expirations a week in the future to be reissued for much longer terms.
> As a concrete example, Beale AFB has a TFR to keep visual flights out of the way of its drone operations (formerly Global Hawks, now vague). Currently this expires November 2, but it's been reissued for years continuously with updated expiration dates. I would not infer anything about drones leaving Beale by November, or staying at Beale through November. Even if they were planning to transfer them out, we would probably not learn this until it had already happened and the TFR was cancelled.
> There just isn't much effort put into maintaining this as a future calendar of events, since that is not how this system is used. Even mundane construction and maintenance projects at civil airports have largely inaccurate expiration dates in the NOTAM system.
Well researched, thank you!
Pilot writes to clarify that NOTAM not that reliable:
> Hello, civilian pilot here. You say that a NOTAM expiration of May 1 means it is "likely" that any operation will be completed by then, but that is putting too much weight on this information. NOTAMs are used for short-range flight planning, hours or days in the future. Expiration dates more than a few days out are often just a placeholder, since you have to file some expiration date. It's not unusual at all for NOTAMs with expiration dates months in the future to be abruptly cancelled, or for NOTAMs with expirations a week in the future to be reissued for much longer terms.
> As a concrete example, Beale AFB has a TFR to keep visual flights out of the way of its drone operations (formerly Global Hawks, now vague). Currently this expires November 2, but it's been reissued for years continuously with updated expiration dates. I would not infer anything about drones leaving Beale by November, or staying at Beale through November. Even if they were planning to transfer them out, we would probably not learn this until it had already happened and the TFR was cancelled.
> There just isn't much effort put into maintaining this as a future calendar of events, since that is not how this system is used. Even mundane construction and maintenance projects at civil airports have largely inaccurate expiration dates in the NOTAM system.
> Thanks for your newsletter; it's insightful.
Iran reaching back to the US: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-foreign-minister-says-tehran-sent-response-trumps-letter-through-oman-irna-2025-03-27/