"DeepSeek released a model that attained gold medalist level on the International Mathematics Olympiad. Google and OpenAI achieved this back in July, giving open-source AI a 5-6 month delay."
Hmm, interesting way to look at it. Neither OAI nor Google have yet released the model that achieved that capability.
> 55% (30% to 71%) chance to Venezuelan President Maduro being out of power by the end of March 2026
Wow! Source? And also: cause? I heard Trump has sent 15,000 troops to the region (and killed at least 80 people) without congressional approval, which... isn't enough for an invasion.
Sorry, it was meant to be 45%. The two forecasters who are above 50% think it's most likely that Maduro will be forced to step down and suggest that he doesn't have many real friends (either in the country or internationally). The three forecasters below 50% note that it's a short timeframe, that there aren't enough troops for an invasion force as you say (though if there were, the US tends to be pretty successful at removing people), and that Maduro is still trying to negotiate his survival.
"Amidts debate..." should be Amidst
Thanks, fixed!
"DeepSeek released a model that attained gold medalist level on the International Mathematics Olympiad. Google and OpenAI achieved this back in July, giving open-source AI a 5-6 month delay."
Hmm, interesting way to look at it. Neither OAI nor Google have yet released the model that achieved that capability.
> 55% (30% to 71%) chance to Venezuelan President Maduro being out of power by the end of March 2026
Wow! Source? And also: cause? I heard Trump has sent 15,000 troops to the region (and killed at least 80 people) without congressional approval, which... isn't enough for an invasion.
Sorry, it was meant to be 45%. The two forecasters who are above 50% think it's most likely that Maduro will be forced to step down and suggest that he doesn't have many real friends (either in the country or internationally). The three forecasters below 50% note that it's a short timeframe, that there aren't enough troops for an invasion force as you say (though if there were, the US tends to be pretty successful at removing people), and that Maduro is still trying to negotiate his survival.