🟩 Anthropic export controls lifted, Russia closed border crossings with some neighbors, OpenAI mulls giving US a 5% stake || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #27/2026
No dramatic global cyberattacks yet :(
Executive summary
Geopolitics: Russia closed its railway border crossings with Estonia, Latvia and Finland, prompting speculation about a possible mobilization of troops.
Before January 2, 2027, will Russia launch a mass mobilization that involves at least one of the following: involuntary mobilization of at least 300k reservists, forced deployment of active-duty reservists to combat zones, or involuntary mobilization of at least 300k male civilians above and beyond the compulsory 12-month draft requirement? We think there’s a 41% (15% to 85%) chance.
Will at least 100 Russian troops enter Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and/or Estonia in hostility (in total), by July 1, 2027? Irregular forces will count. We think there’s a 4% (0.5% to 25%) probability.
If so, will NATO forces capture or kill at least 100 Russian troops in one or more of these countries, combined, by July 1, 2027 as reported by ISW? There’s forecaster dissent [58% (11% to 90%)] as to this probability.
If so, will the following countries all come to the military aid of the invaded country(ies): Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, France, and Britain? We think there’s a 91% (50% to 99%) chance.
Technology and AI: US export controls on Anthropic’s Fable and Mythos models were lifted. OpenAI is considering giving the US government a 5% stake in the company. Britain’s next prime minister may be more AI-skeptical than its current one.
Will the UK pass legislation that imposes binding rules on the most powerful AI models being developed, by 2027? We give this a 26% (15% to 40%) probability.
When will OpenAI’s GPT 5.6 Sol (or equivalent, if renamed) be publicly available? Our aggregate 50th percentile estimate is July 12th, with an 80% confidence interval from tomorrow through August 1.
Biorisk: Ebola cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continue to rise, with 506 deaths reported as of July 4, up from 360 last week.
Geopolitics
Europe
Russia suspended the movement of people, vehicles and cargo through the remaining seven railway border crossings with Estonia, Latvia and Finland, effective July 1. The move could be an attempt to prevent men from leaving Russia before a possible mass mobilization; this would be consilient with previous reporting. We think there’s a 41% (15% to 85%) chance that there will be an involuntary mobilization of at least 300k reservists, forced deployment of active-duty reservists to combat zones, or involuntary mobilization of at least 300k male civilians above and beyond the compulsory 12-month draft requirement. Forecasters note that this would be a gamble, but also that the forced mobilization of reservists is a smaller ask.
Russia said that Ukraine may have used a long-range ballistic missile for the first time, while Ukraine continues to launch medium and long range drone attacks against Russia. Russian fuel shortages continue, with nearly all of its regions experiencing supply disruptions as a result of drone attacks by Ukraine. Russia continues to strike targets in Ukraine; at least 22 died earlier today in Russian attacks that struck residential buildings in Ukraine.
The US told Poland that it anticipates Russia trying to test US and NATO resolve by launching an incursion in Poland. The US warned that Russia could target critical infrastructure with missiles or drones and that Russian or Belarusian forces could potentially cross into Polish territory from Kaliningrad or Belarus. Officials from Latvia and another country warned of the risk of a Russian military provocation in Poland or in the Baltic states as well, and Polish PM Donald Tusk said that “various types of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months.”
We think there’s a 4% (0.5% to 25%) chance that at least 100 Russian troops (regular or irregular) will enter Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and/or Estonia in hostility by July 1, 2027. If this happens, we think there’s forecaster dissent 58% (11% to 90%) about whether NATO forces will capture or kill at least 100 Russian troops by July 1, 2027. But there is broad forecaster agreement, with a 91% (50% to 99%) chance assigned, that all of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, France and Britain would be involved in the defense of the invaded country or countries.
Forecasters would generally consider a confrontation between Russia and NATO as unwise, and 100 as a large threshold. But the question could resolve positively if Russia used a salami-slicing strategy where this threshold is reached cumulatively with many small skirmishes rather than a single large one, with NATO’s response being unclear. But forecasters also note that the countries under consideration have robust border surveillance.
Russia reportedly carried out surveillance of nuclear sites in Europe using drones launched from its ‘shadow fleet’ of ships, over an 18-month period starting in late 2024.
Middle East
The Strait of Hormuz remains semi-open, and the Iran war remains semi-frozen. The number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz remains higher than was seen for much of the Iran War, but the 7-day average remains well below 50% of the pre-war figure. Several European powers now regard Iranian fees for transit through the Strait as inevitable.
In Iran, memorial ceremonies for former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei began a week ago. Earlier today, thousands marched through the street behind his funeral procession, with many calling for vengeance against the US.
Israel’s defense minister said that IDF troops are to stay “indefinitely” in parts of Lebanon, Syria and Gaza.
Asia
China raised objections to Japan and the Philippines holding talks concerning maritime boundaries in the waters east of Taiwan without its inclusion.
Pakistan says that the Balochistan Liberation Army is a global terrorist threat and should be blacklisted by the United Nations (UN).
United States
The Supreme Court ruled that the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution guarantees birthright citizenship to all children born in the United States, including those born to parents in the country unlawfully or only temporarily. This ruling found that Trump’s executive order to restrict birthright citizenship, which was part of a broader push to restrict immigration to the US, violated the Fourteenth Amendment.
Africa
Burkina Faso’s military government severed diplomatic ties with France effective immediately, accusing Paris of “blatant neo-colonial ambitions” and of actively supporting subversive networks and terrorists.
Two rebel groups, a Tuareg-led rebel group and an al-Qaeda affiliated group, claimed responsibility for attacks mounted on five army positions across Mali on Saturday, which threw the country into greater turmoil. Tuareg fighters also claimed to have shot down a helicopter operated by Russia’s mercenary Africa Corps, which provides assistance with security to the Mali government; Russia has vowed to stand by the Mali government. The pair of rebel groups also conducted coordinated attacks, in which the government defense minister was killed, in April. The latest attacks show that the government has been unable to deliver improved security in the country.
Technology and artificial intelligence
AI progress continues apace, though without widespread dramatic cyberattacks (yet?).
The White House is still in talks with AI companies about voluntary model release standards, and the USG lifted its export controls on Fable 5 and Mythos 5; Fable 5 is now publicly deployed. OpenAI reportedly discussed giving the US government a 5% stake in the company, while its model GPT-5.6 Sol reportedly cheated at a relatively high rate on a suite of tasks developed by Model Evaluation and Threat Research (METR). Our forecasters think that the model will be publicly available by July 12th (median), with an 80% confidence interval from tomorrow until August 1st.
On the corporate war side, Claude models are now generally available on Microsoft’s cloud platform, planting the kiss of death on Microsoft’s AI dependence on OpenAI. And Google capped Meta’s Gemini use.
In the UK, Burnham may reconsider government support for self-driving cars and AI data centers if he becomes prime minister in a couple weeks. Some of our forecasters think this could be a sign that he’ll be more willing than outgoing PM Keir Starmer to bring in legislation imposing binding rules on the most powerful AI systems, which the ruling Labour Party promised in its 2024 manifesto. By 2027, our forecasters think this has a 26% (15% to 40%) chance of happening. Forecasters note that there is mention of this neither in the recent King’s speech nor in the parliamentary schedule, but Burnham may provide renewed impetus.
Ukraine is working on integrating AI more deeply into its kill chain.
And: Z.ai, the Chinese company behind GLM-5.2, claims the open-weight model can match Anthropic’s Mythos on certain cyber tasks. EU countries approved changes to the EU AI Act, including a ban on some AI sexual deepfakes and a delay on rules for high-risk AI systems. The UN published its first global assessment of AI, with its panel warning there are no guarantees the technology will not cause catastrophic harm. The Bank of England is considering an AI kill switch for trading bots to prevent a market meltdown.
Biorisk
Ebola cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continue to rise, with 1561 confirmed cases and 506 deaths reported as of July 4. A clinical trial for two Ebola treatments has opened for enrollment, and the first patient enrolled last Thursday. The WHO has added the first rapid molecular diagnostic test for the Bundibugyo ebolavirus to its Emergency Use Listing.
A toddler died from Marburg virus disease in Uganda. Marburg virus is a genetic cousin of ebolaviruses and causes a hemorrhagic fever similar to Ebola virus disease. Additional Marburg cases have not yet been identified. Uganda is experienced in controlling hemorrhagic fever outbreaks, and we do not expect the outbreak to grow substantially.
The WHO said that the hantavirus outbreak that started on a cruise ship in April has officially ended, with 13 cases total.
The world’s first artificial cell has been produced. The cell has a very small genome, and it is composed of 150 to 200 molecules, rather than the millions or billions seen in naturally occurring cells. Dubbed the “SpudCell,” it feeds, grows and replicates for about five generations, after which the lineage dies. Notably, it does not produce its own ribosomes, the cell factories that make proteins, but instead uses ribosomes that it ingests from bacteria. Synthetic biology experts do not view the creation of the SpudCell as having created life, but as a stepping stone towards that goal.