US/Israel attacks on Iran delayed it by 1 to 37 months.
I was surprised by how high this is:
> Will a ban or moratorium on states regulating AI be part of federal law by 2027? 17% (10% to 35%)
You don't seem to argue for it in the text.
- It seems like this was rejected surprisingly strongly by many Republican leaders.
- BBB possibly picked a lot of the low-hanging legislative deals.
- Midterms are coming up soon-ish.
- AI will in expectation become a bigger deal over time.
I'd have expected this range to be b etween 3% and 10%.
Yeah, I'm was at ~10%. 3% to 10% doesn't seem unreasonable. Two ways it could happen:
- Congress passes some AI regulation and *then* does the pre-emption
- Cruz takes another shot and succeeds, now knowing what shape the opposition has.
I'll ask the forecasting team for more flavor
I was surprised by how high this is:
> Will a ban or moratorium on states regulating AI be part of federal law by 2027? 17% (10% to 35%)
You don't seem to argue for it in the text.
- It seems like this was rejected surprisingly strongly by many Republican leaders.
- BBB possibly picked a lot of the low-hanging legislative deals.
- Midterms are coming up soon-ish.
- AI will in expectation become a bigger deal over time.
I'd have expected this range to be b etween 3% and 10%.
Yeah, I'm was at ~10%. 3% to 10% doesn't seem unreasonable. Two ways it could happen:
- Congress passes some AI regulation and *then* does the pre-emption
- Cruz takes another shot and succeeds, now knowing what shape the opposition has.
I'll ask the forecasting team for more flavor