US/Israel attacks on Iran delayed it by 1 to 37 months.
I was surprised by how high this is:
> Will a ban or moratorium on states regulating AI be part of federal law by 2027? 17% (10% to 35%)
You don't seem to argue for it in the text.
- It seems like this was rejected surprisingly strongly by many Republican leaders.
- BBB possibly picked a lot of the low-hanging legislative deals.
- Midterms are coming up soon-ish.
- AI will in expectation become a bigger deal over time.
I'd have expected this range to be b etween 3% and 10%.
Yeah, I'm was at ~10%. 3% to 10% doesn't seem unreasonable. Two ways it could happen:
- Congress passes some AI regulation and *then* does the pre-emption
- Cruz takes another shot and succeeds, now knowing what shape the opposition has.
I'll ask the forecasting team for more flavor
The Sentinel forecasters with higher numbers for the moratorium turned out to be more prescient, it seems.
I was surprised by how high this is:
> Will a ban or moratorium on states regulating AI be part of federal law by 2027? 17% (10% to 35%)
You don't seem to argue for it in the text.
- It seems like this was rejected surprisingly strongly by many Republican leaders.
- BBB possibly picked a lot of the low-hanging legislative deals.
- Midterms are coming up soon-ish.
- AI will in expectation become a bigger deal over time.
I'd have expected this range to be b etween 3% and 10%.
Yeah, I'm was at ~10%. 3% to 10% doesn't seem unreasonable. Two ways it could happen:
- Congress passes some AI regulation and *then* does the pre-emption
- Cruz takes another shot and succeeds, now knowing what shape the opposition has.
I'll ask the forecasting team for more flavor
The Sentinel forecasters with higher numbers for the moratorium turned out to be more prescient, it seems.