> Taiwan is resisting US pressure to facilitate a shift of 50% of its semiconductor chip production capacity to American soil. This dispute could make the Trump administration less willing to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion or blockade—or more willing, because Taiwan’s semiconductor industry would be less expendable. One forecaster calls this a “variance play”.
I don't get the "less willing" case. Is it just that Trump would be mad at Taiwan and thus less willing to help? The realpolitik argument in the other direction is just so obvious, if you look at a Taiwan perspective rather than caring about other interests.
> US policy in Venezuela might seek to accomplish a variety of goals…
I’m not remotely an expert, but I saw an interesting hypothesis that the US was secretly also responding to Venezuela’s ever-escalating threats & plans to invade Guyana and seize the Essequibo region. https://siderea.dreamwidth.org/1884180.html Is there anything to that?
> Taiwan is resisting US pressure to facilitate a shift of 50% of its semiconductor chip production capacity to American soil. This dispute could make the Trump administration less willing to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion or blockade—or more willing, because Taiwan’s semiconductor industry would be less expendable. One forecaster calls this a “variance play”.
I don't get the "less willing" case. Is it just that Trump would be mad at Taiwan and thus less willing to help? The realpolitik argument in the other direction is just so obvious, if you look at a Taiwan perspective rather than caring about other interests.
> Is it just that Trump would be mad at Taiwan and thus less willing to help?
Yep.
> US policy in Venezuela might seek to accomplish a variety of goals…
I’m not remotely an expert, but I saw an interesting hypothesis that the US was secretly also responding to Venezuela’s ever-escalating threats & plans to invade Guyana and seize the Essequibo region. https://siderea.dreamwidth.org/1884180.html Is there anything to that?
I think this is a possibility, but I see it as a very secondary issue.
There is logic to this!