🟢 Gaza ceasefire agreed, Trump threatens 100% tariffs on China, OpenAI subpoena controversy || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #41/2025.
Executive summary
Top items:
Geopolitics: A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect in Gaza. The Trump administration rejected an offer from Maduro that would’ve allowed the US increased access to Venezuela’s oil and gold resources and reduced Venezuela’s ties to China and Russia.
Economy: Trump threatened to impose an extra 100% tariff on imports from China. The S&P 500 fell by 2.71% on Friday but partially rebounded on Monday morning.
Tech and AI: OpenAI used subpoenas against advocacy orgs described by critics as overreaching and intimidating. Its deal with AMD resulted in the chipmaker’s stock price soaring.
Forecaster estimates:
Forecasters assigned a 55% probability (range: 40% to 70%) to there being fewer than 150 deaths in the Gaza Strip because of IDF activity over the next six months.
They assigned a 37% chance (range: 30% to 51%) to a Palestinian Authority representative being involved in the administration of Gaza in the next 12 months.
They think there’s a 51% chance (range: 40% to 60%) that Netanyahu will be the Israeli PM at the end of 2026, and that there’s a 41% chance (range: 25% to 70%) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will have officially normalized relations by this time.
They assign a 3% probability (range: 1% to 8%) to the hypothesis that Russia was behind either a recent fire at an energy facility or a recent explosion at a defence facility in the US . Forecasters think there’s a 7.2% chance (range: 2% to 15%) that there will be a third fire or explosion at an energy or defence facility in the US before the end of October.
They believe there’s a 20% chance (range: 10% to 30%) that the headline US tariff rate on imports from China will be above 100% on November 3, 2026, the date of the US midterm elections.
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Geopolitics
Middle East
A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect in Gaza as part of the first phase of the Trump administration’s peace plan, with thousands of displaced people returning to their homes in the north of the region and the Israeli military withdrawing from some locations. All of the 20 living Israeli hostages have been freed, and 1,968 Palestinian prisoners have been released.
Egypt and the US are set to host a peace summit in Sharm-el-Sheikh to rally support for the subsequent phases of the plan and to discuss possibilities for the post-war governance of Gaza. However, Israel and Hamas are not set to attend the summit, and there are multiple sticking points. Hamas is refusing to lay down arms, while the Israeli government doesn’t want the Palestinian Authority, which is attending, to have a role in the governance of Gaza because the unification of the West Bank and Gaza could make a two-state solution more likely.
To examine the likelihood that the ceasefire will hold, forecasters estimated the chance that Israeli military activity will lead to fewer than 150 deaths in the Gaza Strip over the next six months. In aggregate, they assigned a 55% probability to this (range: 40% to 70%). As an indicator of whether the peace plan will be a stepping stone to a two-state solution, forecasters assigned a 37% chance (range: 30% to 51%) to a Palestinian Authority representative being involved in the administration of Gaza in the next 12 months.
The ceasefire could also have wider implications. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has been accused of prolonging the war to ensure his political survival. A corruption trial, a commission of inquiry into the October 7 attacks and fresh legislative elections in 2026 could pose a greater threat to his premiership in the absence of conflict. On the other hand, Netanyahu has an uncanny ability to hold on to power, and the electoral calculus may not shift by that much after the war. Netanyahu himself is also 75 years old, and although elderly, probably still views himself as the best person to lead the country. Forecasters think there’s a 51% chance (range: 40% to 60%) that Netanyahu will be the Israeli PM at the end of 2026.
A potential normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia was also ruled out because of the outbreak of the Gaza war; this could be back on the table if the peace plan succeeds. Forecasters expressed uncertainty about how good the peace plan would have to be in practice for Saudi Arabia to accede to normalization, and what the time frame would be required to prevent backlash in Saudi Arabia. Overall, we estimate a 41% chance (range: 20% to 70%) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will have officially normalized relations by the end of 2026.
The Americas
South America
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro offered to give the US full access to his country’s oil and gold resources and to reduce economic ties to China, Russia and Japan, in order to avoid a conflict with the US, but the Trump administration reportedly rejected the offer after lengthy discussions. In other news, the US granted Shell and Trinidad and Tobago authorization to develop a Venezuelan gas field.
Venezuela’s opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, won the Nobel Peace Prize.
OSINT ship watchers reported that as of October 8, the US Navy Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group (ARG), and with it, the ~2.2k Marines of the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), finished their preparations and refueling near Puerto Rico and were back at sea. The port had been very busy just days before. Since then, two replenishment oilers have been spotted in Ponce; one may already have left port. These ship movements suggest that the group of US Navy ships deployed to combat narcoterrorism in the Caribbean may soon move towards the coast of Venezuela.
The US requested permission to deploy radar and other military equipment in Grenada, near the coast of Venezuela.
In Brazil, >10K troops are reportedly conducting military training along the border with Venezuela. One forecaster suggests that this troop deployment may be intended to stem any potential tide of refugees fleeing possible upcoming military conflict in Venezuela.
Colombian mercenaries are now operating in the Sudanese civil war, having been contracted by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). One forecaster notes that this is an example of how wars can be mutually reinforcing, even if they are on different sides of the globe.
United States
White House officials have reportedly been holding increasingly serious conversations about invoking the Insurrection Act, including discussions about when and how to do it.
The Trump administration plans to investigate the activities and financing of liberal groups that it accuses of funding and organizing political violence. AG Pam Bondi vowed to “destroy the entire [Antifa] organization from top to bottom.”
In the state of Tennessee, an explosion at an ammunition factory likely resulted in the death of at least 18 people. In California, meanwhile, there was a major oil refinery fire. The timing of the two incidents, potential links between the ammunition factory and Ukraine’s defence effort, and the abnormal scale of the fire at the refinery led some to speculate that Russia may have been behind the incidents, especially as oil refineries in Russia have been targeted by Ukraine (with US assistance). On the other hand, there are plausible technical explanations for why the incidents occurred, and such events are fairly frequent, with a long but not exhaustive list of similar incidents on Wikipedia, and two similar incidents having occurred earlier this year..
Our forecasters assign a 3% probability (range: ~1% to 8%) to the hypothesis that Russia was behind at least one of the incidents, and think there’s a 7.2% chance (range: 2% to 15%) that there will be a third fire or explosion at an energy or defence facility in the US before the end of October. If there is a third fire in such a short period of time, some forecasters would take it as a strong update on Russian involvement.
The US government shutdown continues, with the Trump administration taking the opportunity to fire thousands of federal workers. Trump stated that the layoffs “should be Democrat-oriented”.
Asia
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense released its 2025 National Defense Report, which discusses increasing Chinese military activities and hybrid warfare targeting the island.
Pakistan launched an airstrike on Afghanistan’s capital Kabul. In retaliation, the Taliban carried out attacks on Pakistani military posts.
North Korea held a military parade and displayed its new intercontinental ballistic missile.
Africa
Ethiopia accused Eritrea of preparing for war. The two countries have a long-running dispute over access to the Red Sea. Ethiopia also recently completed the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a major self-financed project for the country.
Europe
French President Emmanuel Macron reappointed Sébastien Lecornu as PM, just days after he had resigned.
Technology and artificial intelligence
OpenAI legal intimidation tactics. Nathan Calvin, a lawyer who works for policy non-profit Encode AI, was reportedly subpoenaed by OpenAI, with a sheriff’s deputy allegedly asking for access to his private messages. Encode AI filed an amicus brief in support of Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, with the aim of preventing it from becoming a for-profit company.
OpenAI said that the reason for having subpoenaed the company itself was the said amicus brief. However, the company’s head of mission alignment said that what happened to Calvin was probably wrong, in part because OpenAI’s lawyers also requested materials related to SB 53, California’s recently passed AI safety bill.
The founder of another non-profit, The Midas Project, that advocates for the safe development of AI, recently said that he had a similar experience, despite not having supported the lawsuit. Meta has also been subpoenaed in recent months because of its reported links with Elon Musk’s attempted takeover bid for OpenAI.
Researchers at Anthropic, the UK Government’s AI Security Institute and the Alan Turing Institute published a pre-print suggesting that data used to train AI models can be corrupted with a relatively small number of documents.
OpenAI and AMD announced a partnership to deploy 6GW of AMD GPUs, resulting in AMD’s stock price soaring. This comes on top of a recent deal between OpenAI and Nvidia, and CEO Sam Altman says there are more deals to come.
A group at the University of Toronto uncovered an apparent AI-enabled influence operation aimed at overthrowing Iran’s government. They conclude that Israel is most likely behind it.
In a recent interview, Sam Altman confirmed his 2015 comment that he believes the development of superhuman machine intelligence (now more commonly known as superintelligence) is the greatest threat to the existence of humankind. This is notable, as from mid-2023 until now, he has avoided publicly commenting on this risk. In the interview, he also said that we should push for global AI governance. Despite this, there is no sign that he intends to steer OpenAI away from developing superintelligence.
Economy
The Chinese government announced expanded export control rules for rare earth metals and refining technology, and on graphite and lithium batteries, mirroring US export controls on semiconductor chips. It also announced retaliatory port fees for US ships docking in Chinese ports. Following the announcement of new restrictions on rare earth exports, the US reached out to China by phone, and China did not take the call.
In retaliation for new Chinese export restrictions, US President Trump threatened to impose an extra 100% tariff on imports from China starting November 1 “or sooner,” triggering a 2.71% drop in the S&P 500 on Friday. We can expect a drop in US imports from China to follow if these tariffs are implemented. Trump and President Xi were due to meet at the end of October, but while this meeting is now less certain to occur, Trump said that he hasn’t yet cancelled it. Forecasters believe that there’s a 20% chance (range: 10% to 30%) that the headline US tariff rate on imports from China will be above 100% on November 3, 2026, the date of the US midterm elections.
The Dutch government seized Chinese chip maker Nexperia, because of “serious governance shortcomings” and to protect European economic security.
Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg and Forbes point out how investment in AI is somewhat cicular, recycling Nvidia’s cash through multiple AI deals, and called on AI companies to provide more financial detail and clarity.
Biorisk
The World Health Organization released an update on the chikungunya virus, reporting that there were 445,271 suspected and confirmed cases and 155 reported deaths around the world from January 1 to September 30 2025.