Speaking personally, if the Supreme Court rules that they have to stop imposing the current tariffs (and refund importers if necessary), I'm very confident (~95%) that the administration will abide by this.
However, I think it's likely (~80%) he'll try to use another law (most likely Smoot-Hawley) to reimpose some of them. These fresh tariffs could also be legally challenged, but the courts have allowed the current ones to stand while the court cases continue, so I expect they'll do the same for any fresh ones.
Well, the Supreme Court is only ruling on a fraction of them. For that fraction, say 50% that the administration will try to find a different legal interpretation under which it can, then 50% that it survives further judicial scrutiny. So 75% for your question.
What’s the probability Trump actually stops imposing tariffs if the supreme court deems it unlawful?
Speaking personally, if the Supreme Court rules that they have to stop imposing the current tariffs (and refund importers if necessary), I'm very confident (~95%) that the administration will abide by this.
However, I think it's likely (~80%) he'll try to use another law (most likely Smoot-Hawley) to reimpose some of them. These fresh tariffs could also be legally challenged, but the courts have allowed the current ones to stand while the court cases continue, so I expect they'll do the same for any fresh ones.
> allowed the current ones to stand while the court cases continue
Yeah, so if the SC rules in mid 2026, then the administration offers a new legal interpretation we're already looking at 2027, wild
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Well, the Supreme Court is only ruling on a fraction of them. For that fraction, say 50% that the administration will try to find a different legal interpretation under which it can, then 50% that it survives further judicial scrutiny. So 75% for your question.