🟡 Israel attacks Iran, US protests continue, China deploys 2 aircraft carriers in Pacific | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #24/2025

and, the Gentle Singularity.

, and

Jun 16, 2025

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Executive summary

Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear weapons program and military leadership - Israel and Iran are now at war
Anti-ICE and No Kings protests took place in over 2,100 locations in the US and remained largely peaceful
Trump steps up deportation plans, backs down from targeting agricultural, hotel and restaurant workers
China simultaneously deployed two aircraft carriers in the Pacific
The US seeks a peace deal in the Rwanda-Congo conflict by July
Sam Altman writes about the “Gentle singularity”
The bird flu virus strain that infected a Michigan dairy farmer is capable of airborne transmission

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Geopolitics

Middle East

Israel v. Iran

Summary of events

Israel surprise attack

On Friday, Israel launched strikes on Iranian soil, killing a number of top military officials and nuclear scientists and targeting missile launchers, air defense systems and nuclear sites. Israeli airstrikes killed heads of Iran’s Armed Forces, Islamic Republican Guard Corps (IRGC), and Aerospace Force, the IRGC’s Intelligence Chief, the deputy to the Intelligence Chief, and other military leaders. Israel has also killed at least ten of Iran’s top nuclear scientists. Trump reportedly vetoed an Israeli plan to target Khamenei.

Iran’s response

In response to Israel’s attacks, Iran has launched more than 370 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel. As of today, Israeli officials said that 24 people have been killed and more than 500 injured in Israel. However, Iran has launched fewer missiles over the past day, perhaps both because Israel’s targeted destruction of Iran’s command structure has degraded Iran’s decision-making capabilities and because Israel has destroyed equipment needed to launch missiles. So far, Iranian proxy forces, including Hezbollah and Iraqi militias, have not participated in military actions against Israel, with the exception of the Houthis, which have launched missiles against Israel in support of Iran.

Israel’s continued attack

Israeli airstrikes are ongoing, and rumors of attacks launched from within Iran, by Israel or others, are circulating as well. Israeli officials have said that Israel is planning to conduct attacks for at least two weeks. There is a limit to Israel’s stockpiles of precision missiles, bombs, and interceptors and to Iran’s numbers of ballistic missiles, and those limits could set a limit on the scope of the current conflict. If other countries are not drawn into the offensive operations of the war and current rates of attacks continue, both sides would likely deplete their stockpiles within weeks, not months.

So far, in addition to targeted killings of key regime military leaders, Israel has hit nuclear weapons facilities, including at Natanz and Isfahan, although it appears that the damage at Natanz is surface-level. Similarly, the Fordow nuclear enrichment facility has not been destroyed. Fordow was built deep underground, and it will be difficult for Israel to destroy the facility without conducting a commando raid or dropping 30,000 pound ground-penetrating bombs that only the US can deliver.

On Monday, Netanyahu said that the Israeli Air Force currently has total control over Tehran’s airspace. Israel has told some Tehran residents to evacuate the city ahead of planned strikes, and roads out of Tehran are jammed with traffic as residents flee.

The Israeli foreign minister said on Sunday that Israel’s goal is not regime change; however, Netanyahu also said on Sunday that regime change “could certainly be the result because the Iran regime is very weak."

As we were about to send this brief, Iran signals it seeks an end to hostilities and a return to the negotiation table.

Escalatory pathways and our probabilities

Oil exports from the region account for about 20% of global oil flows and a higher share of natural gas flows, so attacks on oil and gas facilities represent a key threshold in this conflict. Oil and gas exports from the region could be affected if Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, attack tankers in the Strait, or attack oil facilities in the Gulf states, or because Israel attacked Iranian oil and gas facilities. An Iranian official reportedly stated that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is actively being considered.

Israel struck Iran’s oil facilities in the South Pars offshore gas field and hit an oil refinery close to Tehran. The South Pars field is the largest gas field in the world and the source of “two-thirds of Iran’s gas production, which is consumed nationally.” The Pars gas field is shared with Qatar. Qatar acts as an intermediary and peace broker in the region and hosts the largest US military installation in the Middle East. Primarily, though, Israeli strikes on oil and gas facilities raise the risk that Iran would retaliate by restricting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the damage to Iran’s gas field and oil refinery, oil prices have stayed below $75 per barrel for now, with Iran’s main export facilities on Kharg Island having been spared so far. US CENTCOM commander Gen. Erik Kurilla told the US Congress that 85-90% of Iranian oil sales are to China.

A wider regional war could develop from the current conflict. If Iran were to strike US bases and assets in the region, Jordan, or Saudi Arabian oil refineries, the war could escalate and become more protracted.

The US has denied any participation in Israel’s strikes on Iran, but the US has reportedly helped Israel to intercept missiles. In addition, the US knew about them beforehand and gave them a “green light”. Currently, additional US assets, including the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier, are headed to the Middle East. Also, on Sunday, June 16 into Monday, June 17, the US sent at least 32 air-refueling tankers from the US to locations in Europe. It is speculated that the tankers will be sent onward to the Middle East and that they could be used to support Israeli operations against Iran. Before Israel attacked Iran, the US ordered mandatory and voluntary evacuations of US personnel in the region as well – which was also an early clue about Israel’s upcoming attack.

The Islamic Republic has warned the US, Britain and France that its bases could be attacked if they help to defend Israel from drone and ballistic missile attacks. Jordan is also intercepting missiles and drones from Iran in its airspace and could presumably be targeted as well.

Regime change is possible in the short term and in the longer term. There are reports that a top Iranian official has been talking with Russian officials to secure safe passage for himself and his family if the regime collapses. Khamenei said, “Anyone who leaves Iran betrays the revolution,” in a clear indication that he feels that the regime is under threat. Israel could kill Khamenei and cause regime change directly, or its actions could facilitate regime change by groups within Iran in the near future or over the coming months to a small number of years.

A nuclear detonation is possible, but our forecasters consider this possibility to be exceedingly unlikely over the coming months. It is thought that Iran has not made a nuclear bomb, and because of the ongoing strikes, it is likely that the country does not currently have the capability to enrich uranium to a high enough level or to complete the other steps necessary to make and deploy a nuclear warhead. Israel is known to possess a nuclear arsenal, but none of its neighboring countries are in a position to cause an existential risk to Israel. Some of Iran’s ballistic missiles are succeeding in making it past US and Israeli multi-layered defenses, causing significant damage, but they do not come close to putting Israel at risk of collapse.

Markets, prediction markets and forecasting platforms

The Sentinel team made some rapid-fire forecasts on the following questions:

Will Iran attack a US base in the region by the end of August? 38% (range: 25% to 48%) for larger attacks, and close to 100% for small attacks by proxies (apparently a drone has already been launched against a US consulate in Erbil). The US has been holding back a bit, and an attack by Iran might change that.
Will the US strike Iranian soil by the end of August? 43% (range: 30% to 55%). A bunker buster is the most likely option for a limited strike because it is beyond the capabilities of Israel and can be targeted precisely to avoid populated areas. Trump is apparently resisting the idea, but the US has a unique capability, and its use could shorten the length of time Israel needs to conduct strikes to destroy the most highly relevant targets.
Will Iran block the Strait of Hormuz or attack a tanker in the Strait by the end of August? 32% (range: 25% to 45%). This would be a dumb move by Iran because it would hurt Iran and China more than anyone else. It would benefit Russia by causing higher oil and gas prices. Iran might still do this out of desperation and a lack of other options for retaliation.
Will Iran attack an oil facility in the Gulf States by the end of August? 12% (range: 7% to 30%).
Will Ayatollah Khamenei be killed or flee Iran by the end of 2025? 58% (range: 30% to 80%). Considering all of the top commanders who have been killed, Khamenei’s fate is precarious. Normally, leaders and regimes are very difficult to unseat, but when the US is involved, they usually fall (Qadaffi, Mubarak, Hussein, Milosevic). The US may get more involved, and Israel also has overwhelming air superiority.
Will the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2025? 51% (range: 20% to 78%). It seems like it’s a particularly unstable year, and the regime looks like it's about to fall, but this process might still take longer than a year.
Will there be a nuclear detonation in the Middle East in the next 12 months? 0.4% (range: 0.05% to 1%).
Will the US and Iran resume nuclear talks by the end of August? 33% (12% to 50%).

In addition, prediction markets and forecasting platforms have moved reasonably fast to add questions on this topic.

Dashboard

Friend of Sentinel & reservist Nathan Young has a dashboard here.

Polymarket:

Metaculus:

Markets:

Gaza

Food shortages continue in Gaza.

USA

Trump deportation plans

Stepped-up detentions of undocumented immigrants by ICE have continued. Defense Secretary Hegseth directed ICE agents to target Home Depot stores where day laborers gather, or 7-Eleven convenience stores, instead of following the standard practice of developing target lists of suspected undocumented immigrants.

ICE has been conducting obtrusive and disruptive raids in Los Angeles County as part of its planned 30-day operation in the county. This has led to continued protests.

Trump has been publicly refining his deportation plans, de-emphasizing deporting agricultural, hotel and restaurant workers:

> Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace. In many cases the Criminals allowed into our Country by the VERY Stupid Biden Open Borders Policy are applying for those jobs. This is not good. We must protect our Farmers, but get the CRIMINALS OUT OF THE USA. Changes are coming!

And instead focusing on mass deportations in large Democratic cities:

> ICE Officers are herewith ordered, by notice of this TRUTH, to do all in their power to achieve the very important goal of delivering the single largest Mass Deportation Program in History. In order to achieve this, we must expand efforts to detain and deport Illegal Aliens in America’s largest Cities, such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York, where Millions upon Millions of Illegal Aliens reside. These, and other such Cities, are the core of the Democrat Power Center.

Politico also reported that the Trump administration is planning to hold thousands of undocumented immigrants in Guantanamo. At least 9,000 people are being considered for transfer starting within days.

Protests

Anti-ICE: Anti-ICE demonstrations have continued in Los Angeles and other cities. An 8pm-6am curfew enacted for downtown Los Angeles appears to be reducing violence and vandalism. Protests against ICE raids have occurred in at least 16 cities in 10 states and Washington, DC.

“No Kings” protests: It is estimated that more than 5M people participated in “No Kings” demonstrations against Trump in over 2,100 cities and towns across the US on Saturday. The total number of protestors may be the largest single-day total ever seen in the US.

Reactions against the protests

Texas Governor Abbott ordered 5K National Guard troops and more than 2K state police to be deployed to help local law enforcement to manage anti-ICE protests and the “No Kings” demonstrations against Trump that took place on Saturday. Texas National Guard troops remained under the Texas governor’s control and were not federalized.

Homeland Security Secretary Noem asked Hegseth to direct troops to "arrest rioters to help restore law and order".

Federal troops deployed to protest areas currently have authority only to protect federal personnel and property and do not have the authority to make arrests. For federal troops to have such an authority, the Insurrection Act would likely need to be invoked. However, an Army general said that troops in Los Angeles can temporarily detain individuals until law enforcement agents step in to arrest them.

Trump has reportedly discussed with multiple advisors how to involve federal troops in domestic law enforcement, to suppress crime or manage protests, since the beginning of his current presidency.

Forecasters think there is a 30% chance (range: 15% to 70%) that Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by the end of July. The most worrying threat model might be that the force grown to deport immigrants would begin to be used for other purposes, in what would be a “crossing the Rubicon” moment.

Other US

Musk publicly apologized to Trump on X, saying that some of his posts “went too far.” It remains to be seen whether the relationship between Trump and Musk can be mended.

Two Minnesota lawmakers were attacked by a gunman. One was killed.

China/Taiwan

China simultaneously deployed two aircraft carriers in the Pacific for the first time. This enables the carriers to conduct carrier-to-carrier exercises. One of the carriers, the Liaoning, also sailed inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone of Minamitorishima, Japan’s easternmost island, for the first time. This marked the first time that a Chinese aircraft carrier has sailed east of the so-called second island chain that includes Guam, where a US base is located. A Chinese fighter jet from the other carrier, the Shandong, also flew abnormally close to a Japanese reconnaissance aircraft.

On the mainland, China launched coordinated actions targeting “Taiwan independence” separatists:

The Chinese mainland has initiated coordinated actions against ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists, including issuing a wanted notice for 20 suspects involved in cyberattacks against a mainland company. This firm stance aims to deter any further promotion of independence from Taiwan by emphasizing that punitive measures will ensue against those who participate in separatist activities. Additionally, a Taiwan-based company connected to prominent advocate Shen Pao-yang has been banned from conducting business with mainland entities, reinforcing that enterprises related to separatist supporters will not be tolerated.

The US Navy held war games to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Africa

We have been covering the rise of military conflicts in Africa as the US retreats from the continent. Currently, however, the US is seeking a peace deal in the Rwanda-Congo conflict by July.

Sudan’s RSF claims control of the strategic border area with Egypt and Libya, as army forces retreat.

Areas near Sudan’s Khartoum are at risk of famine.

Economy

In trade negotiations, China and the US agreed on a framework for a deal. On the tariffs front, the US would impose 55% tariffs on Chinese goods, and China would impose 10% tariffs on US goods. In addition, the US would cease to revoke the visas of Chinese students. On the rare earths front, China will make it easier for US businesses to obtain supplies of rare earths, but the US and China haven’t yet agreed on arrangements for supplying rare earths to the US for military use.

Gold has surpassed the euro as the world’s second-most-held reserve asset by central banks.

Artificial Intelligence

Sam Altman published a new blogpost “The Gentle Singularity”. In it, he writes that we are past the event horizon and that the takeoff has started. He predicts that 2026 will likely see AIs that can find novel insights and that there may be robots that can do real-world tasks in 2027.

Altman says the tools they’ve already built exhibit a “larval” form of recursive self-improvement, and he envisions robots and AI automating the entire AI supply chain:

There are other self-reinforcing loops at play. The economic value creation has started a flywheel of compounding infrastructure buildout to run these increasingly-powerful AI systems. And robots that can build other robots (and in some sense, datacenters that can build other datacenters) aren’t that far off.
If we have to make the first million humanoid robots the old-fashioned way, but then they can operate the entire supply chain—digging and refining minerals, driving trucks, running factories, etc.—to build more robots, which can build more chip fabrication facilities, data centers, etc, then the rate of progress will obviously be quite different.

Altman does acknowledge in his post that the alignment problem, the problem of getting AIs to do what we actually want (including ensuring that superhuman AIs don’t wipe us out), has not been solved. And he suggests that solving it could be part of a best path forward.

Nostalgebraist writes about AI safety and the risks of hyperstition: threat models around AI increasing their saliency in pre-training.

Former OpenAI researcher Steven Adler published results from a series of experiments he ran with GPT-4o, finding that the model will often choose to prioritize preserving itself over the safety of its users.

New York passed a bill, the RAISE Act, which aims to address catastrophic risk from the most powerful AIs being developed, where death or injury is caused to more than 100 people or there is more than $1 billion in damages:

The RAISE Act has some of the same provisions and goals as California’s controversial AI safety bill, SB 1047, which was ultimately vetoed. However, the co-sponsor of the bill, New York state Senator Andrew Gounardes, told TechCrunch in an interview that he deliberately designed the RAISE Act such that it doesn’t chill innovation among startups or academic researchers — a common criticism of SB 1047.
“The window to put in place guardrails is rapidly shrinking given how fast this technology is evolving,” said Senator Gounardes. “The people that know [AI] the best say that these risks are incredibly likely […] That’s alarming.”

The bill still ultimately needs approval from Governor Hochul.

Mark Zuckerberg is now reportedly aiming for superintelligence, with a $15b investment for a 49% stake in Scale.ai. The new lab Meta is setting up to do this will reportedly be headed by Scale AI’s Alexandr Wang.

The Pentagon is slashing in half the team that tests AI and weapons teams for safety, the Office of the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation:

“The cuts make me nervous,” says Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who previously worked at the Pentagon in collaboration with the testing office. “It’s not that we’ll go from effective to ineffective, but you might not catch some of the problems that would surface in combat without this testing step.”

Nvidia released new AI robotics models. ChatGPT appears to have contributed to a mental health crisis in a man, previously diagnosed with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia, who was fatally shot by police. Temasek, BlackRock and MGX have formed a consortium to build AI infrastructure, aiming to mobilise up to $100 billion.

Biorisks

Sudan’s collapsing healthcare system is a global emergency in waiting, but one good piece of news is that there is now an oral cholera vaccination campaign in Sudan.

An Oxford vaccine against deadly Nipah virus is getting some regulatory support in Europe.

WHO extended the health emergency for mpox as cases continue to climb in West Africa.

A new coronavirus discovered in China raises some worries.

A recent CDC study reveals that the bird flu virus that infected a Michigan dairy farmer is moderately capable of airborne transmission in a ferret model.

Sentinel Global Risks Watch

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