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One of your forecasters thinks that there's a 35% chance of 4 or more successful political assassinations in the US in the next 12 months?
This whole range (7% to 35%) all strikes me as crazy high - any specific justification? I think I'd be willing to bet very hard against that.
if one fits a poisson distribution with mean 2 (2 over the last 12 months, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_shootings_of_Minnesota_legislators and Kirk), the probability of 4 or more is 14% <https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/poisson>. Then one could increase from there because a recent political assassination makes the option more salient.
Doesn't take much more than a repeat of <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_shootings_of_Minnesota_legislators>.
One of your forecasters thinks that there's a 35% chance of 4 or more successful political assassinations in the US in the next 12 months?
This whole range (7% to 35%) all strikes me as crazy high - any specific justification? I think I'd be willing to bet very hard against that.
if one fits a poisson distribution with mean 2 (2 over the last 12 months, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_shootings_of_Minnesota_legislators and Kirk), the probability of 4 or more is 14% <https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/poisson>. Then one could increase from there because a recent political assassination makes the option more salient.
Doesn't take much more than a repeat of <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_shootings_of_Minnesota_legislators>.