🟢 Sentinel minutes for week #1/2025

Top items:

• US Department of Health and Human Services to award $306M in funds to help bird flu monitoring. Our forecasters predict a 4% chance of an H5N1 pandemic this year.

• Microsoft to invest $80B in datacenters for AI in 2025.

• Oracle strongly against Biden’s AI Export control framework.

Biorisk

The US Department of Health and Human Services has said it would award $306M in funds to help bird flu monitoring. Other agencies are awarding additional funds for bird flu monitoring and to help prepare for the possibility of a bird flu or other pandemic, as well.

Over 900 dairy farms in the US have tested positive for H5N1 bird flu.

The Canadian teenager with a severe case of H5N1 has recovered. She had a history of asthma and a BMI greater than 35.

A study of 46 H5N1 cases identified between March and October 2024 reveals that 20 were exposed to infected poultry and 25 were exposed to infected dairy cows. 1 had no identified exposure and was the only case involving hospitalisation. Almost all patients had conjunctivitis and around half had fever. The median age was 34 years.

An article in The Guardian suggests that the world is not any more prepared for a new pandemic than it was before Covid. In 2022, the WHO started negotiations for a global pandemic accord, to lay the foundation for international cooperation during the next pandemic. Negotiators are aiming to reach an agreement by May.

Our forecasting team provided estimates on the probability that there would be an H5N1 pandemic this year, and gave a 4% chance (range: 2.5% to 8%). For the purposes of our forecasting, we defined a pandemic as the WHO making that declaration. For more background, our team gave some help to Scott Alexander’s H5N1: Much More Than You Wanted To Know.

Forecasters wanted to highlight that some of the reporting on H5N1 has been misleading, for example the narrative that “H5N1 is one mutation away from a pandemic”. GAVI say: “While the researchers think it’s unlikely that this single change could turn bird flu into a pandemic – it would also need to evolve better viral replication and stability in the human body – this type of mutation could be a concerning stepping-stone.”

This article discusses “the current pressing need for comprehensive and long-lasting mpox control across endemic regions." In the long run, mpox and the risk it poses to humanity isn't going away. To address the current outbreaks, the authors argue that mpox vaccines "are not silver-bullet solutions. Coupled with vaccine introduction, more impactful public health communication and education and investments into improving the standard of care in the DRC are needed to effectively address the current outbreak and build resilience against future mpox spread."

A metapneumovirus outbreak in China is reportedly causing some hospitals to be overwhelmed.

Geopolitics

The Americas

President Biden has blocked the takeover of US Steel by Japan’s Nippon Steel.

The US Treasury Department was hacked by a Chinese group, and the White House says a 9th US telecom firm has been hit by a Chinese espionage attack.

The Biden administration considered contingency plans to strike nuclear facilities in Iran if the country took steps to develop a nuclear weapon rapidly.

Homelessness reached a record high in the US in 2024, and US credit card defaults jumped to their highest levels since 2010.

There was a truck attack in New Orleans, killing 14, and injuring 35, inspired by ISIS. The attack is being investigated by the FBI as an act of domestic terrorism. The attacker also died. And an active-duty member of the US military killed himself before exploding a Tesla Cybertruck in front of a Trump Hotel in Las Vegas. He had PTSD and thought the US was heading towards collapse.

Middle East

Israel has destroyed Hezbollah rocket launchers in southern Lebanon.

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics report that the population of Gaza is down 6% since the start of the Israel-Gaza war.

Israel warned at the UN that Yemen’s Houthis risk sharing the same fate as Hamas and Hezbollah.

Israeli PM Netanyahu stayed in the hospital for prostate surgery.

Ukraine’s president Zelensky says Ukraine is preparing to resume diplomatic ties with Syria.

A senior Hamas official has said they want a ceasefire deal as soon as possible.

President Biden and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan discussed plans to strike Iran’s nuclear sites if the regime sped toward a bomb.

Despite a severe energy crisis, an economic crisis, and foreign policy defeats, the number of people estimated to be protesting in Iran has not increased in the past week.

Israel announced an increase in its propaganda budget by USD 150M to combat Gaza narratives.

Iran is to hold nuclear talks with France, Britain and Germany on January 13.

Yemen’s Houthis claim to have shot down a 13th MQ-9 Reaper drone.

Europe

Ukraine halted the decades-long transport of Russian natural gas through Ukraine to Europe on New Year's Day by refusing to renew a transit agreement. Gas prices in Europe are not expected to be affected, as the few remaining countries purchasing Russian gas have arranged for alternate supplies or alternate delivery methods.

One exception is Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway enclave in Moldova, which cut off heating and hot water supplies to households when Russian gas stopped flowing. Its leader has said they have only 10-20 days of gas supply left. Moldova’s Prime Minister has said they face a security crisis.

Ukraine received its first natural gas shipment from the US. Ukraine's largest private energy company took delivery of the shipment in Greece.

Five liquid natural gas (LNG) tankers in Russia's shadow fleet, and named in new EU sanctions against Russia, are stalled in sea ice in the Arctic. Another is sailing in circles near Norway.

The US Helsinki Commission released a report on suspected and attributed acts of sabotage by Russia in Europe and the US since February 2022. The report states, "In conjunction with its war in Ukraine, Russia is simultaneously executing a shadow war on NATO to destabilize, distress, and deter the transatlantic alliance from its staunch support of Ukrainian sovereignty … the scale and calculated nature of Russian hybrid threats within NATO borders since 2022 amount to a covert shadow war."

Three dual German-Russian nationals have been charged in Germany with planning acts of sabotage against military and industrial targets in Germany.

German Federal Police reported problems with their border-control IT systems for several hours that caused long delays for air passengers trying to enter the country.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken claims. that Russia considered using nuclear weapons in Ukraine but was dissuaded by China. He also says that “even if the probability went from 5 to 15 percent, when it comes to nuclear weapons, nothing is more serious”.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has rejected the Trump team’s suggestion that European peacekeepers be stationed in post-war Ukraine.

Russia has threatened more nuclear tests.

Russia will abandon its moratorium on deploying short- and medium-range missiles.

Drag marks on the seabed were discovered following damage to the Estlink 2 undersea power cable, which connects Finland and Estonia. This provides further evidence of sabotage.

Greenland’s Prime Minister Mute Egede emphasised his desire to pursue independence from Denmark, during his New Year speech.

Elon Musk is to host the leader of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, Alice Weidel, in a live interview on Twitter.

Asia

China has moved one of its ships, the world's largest coast guard vessel, to a disputed shoal in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone.

A video clip that has millions of views in China calls for China to take Siberia and parts of eastern Russia after a hypothetical Russian defeat in Ukraine and collapse of Russia. The clip reflects a desire by the Chinese government to regain territory taken by Russia during the collapse of the Qing dynasty - and more.

Leaked documents reveal that Russia has prepared target lists for over 160 sites in Japan and South Korea in the event of a major war, dating back to 2013-2014. The plans, which focus on military engagements in the Asia-Pacific region, highlight Russia’s intentions to use non-nuclear cruise missiles to disrupt military operations and include both military and civilian/mixed infrastructure targets: command headquarters,radar installations, but also power plants and major transportation infrastructures like tunnels and bridges.

The US and Japan issued their first guidelines for extended deterrence, which outline the potential use of U.S. nuclear weapons in response to threats from China and North Korea. Final authorization remains with the US president.

Xi Jinping says “The people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family. No one can sever our family bonds, and no one can stop the historical trend of national reunification” in New Years’ speech.

The Chinese navy and Coast Guard conducted a maritime blockade drill in the Miyako Strait, a strategic waterway near Japanese territory where U.S. forces are stationed.

China has created two new counties in Xinjiang, but India has objected to their creation on the basis that parts of them fall into the Indian territory of Ladakh. This is, however, very unlikely to spiral into a global catastrophe as the dispute over this piece of land has been going on for decades.

Our forecasting team provided estimates on the probability that there would be an India-China war this year, and gave a 0.09% chance (range: 0.05% to 0.25%). For the purposes of our forecasting, we defined a war in this case as being a military conflict between India and China where there are more than 2,000 combined military fatalities between both sides.

A Himalayan megadam will give China the ability to turn off taps in India.

Pakistan attacked some positions of the TTP in Afghanistan, leading to the Afghan Taliban hitting several points in Pakistan.

China has called for the withdrawal of a US missile system from the Philippines.

India and Pakistan have exchanged a list of nuclear Installations, as part of measures to increase transparency and reduce surprises.

Technology

The Biden administration has designed an “interim final rule” for AI exports. Oracle is not happy about it.

The DOJ has asked the Supreme Court to reject Trump’s request to delay TikTok’s ban until after he takes office.

Microsoft is to invest $80B in datacenters for AI in 2025.

Meta has replaced Nick Clegg (former UK deputy prime minister and leader of the Liberal Democrats) with Joel Kaplan (a Republican operative who served 8 years in George W. Bush’s administration) as its global policy lead.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has directed the government and Sberbank to collaborate with China on AI, aiming to bolster Russia’s capabilities, particularly military ones, like autonomous combat systems, in the face of Western sanctions. It’s unclear what Russia can really offer China on AI, as they are set to be quite a minor player — perhaps training data from drone footage in the Ukraine war.

Nature

The Sun is exhibiting a moderate level of activity, with several X-class flares over the past week.