Sentinel minutes for week #29/2024

Status: green. Biden dropped out, CrowdStrike causes massive updates, more H5N1 human cases, & massive protests in Bangladesh.

Geopolitics

US

US President Biden has bowed out of the 2024 Presidential race on Sunday but will continue to serve out his term as President. He has endorsed VP Harris to be the Democratic nominee for President. VP Harris is almost certain to be the Democratic nominee as of this writing, as her candidacy has received endorsements from many key Democratic leaders and lawmakers, including from Govs. Whitmer, Newsom, and Shapiro and Sec. Buttigieg, all potential rivals for the Democratic nomination. ActBlue, an online fundraising platform for Democratic candidates and causes, received a near-record more than USD$52 million in donations on Sunday. It is now somewhat less likely that Trump will be elected President, although still likely that he will be. Republicans have called for Biden to resign.

Former US President Trump selected Senator JD Vance as his running mate in the 2024 presidential election. Sen. Vance espouses a very conservative agenda and brings his connections with Peter Thiel and other wealthy Silicon Valley patrons to Trump’s campaign. Notably, Sen. Vance opposes US involvement in Ukraine, and many Europeans are alarmed by his opposition to aid to Ukraine. He is a staunch defender of Israel but is no fan of China or Iran. He has called China the “biggest threat to our country,” and is supportive of defending Taiwan against China. In a Fox News interview, he said, “A lot of people recognize that we need to do something with Iran—but not these weak little bombing runs. If you’re going to punch the Iranians, you punch them hard.”

The US is considering tougher trade rules in a crackdown on companies selling advanced chips to China.

A Pentagon official stated that the US does not rule out the option of a nuclear first strike.

More details about the shooter who attempted to assassinate former President Trump continue to emerge. He was politically conservative and a registered Republican voter. He was an honors student who built computers and studied engineering. Reuters reports that, ‘“He was super smart. That’s what really kind of threw me off was, this was, like, a really, really smart kid, like he excelled,” the classmate said. “Nothing crazy ever came up in any conversation.”’ His internet searches suggest that he wanted to carry out “a high-profile shooting.” He flew a drone over the site of Trump’s rally hours before his assassination attempt. While conspiracy theories abound, he appears to have acted alone.

Russian war on Ukraine

The Economist published an article arguing that Russia is getting close to running out of a lot of its Soviet-era military materiel and that, as a consequence, it may soon have to scale back its offensive. Its persuasive claims are based on open-source intel analyses. While Russia would stand to benefit from a second Trump presidency and any resulting loss of US aid to Ukraine, this analysis suggests that a consequent Russian victory would not be assured.

Russia claimed that it had dropped a 3-ton glide bomb on Ukraine. A video shows its huge size.

Half of Ukraine’s power is knocked out, and this is expected to make the coming winter very difficult. Russian drones hit energy facilities in Ukraine this week, as well.

“The Russian government reacted to Ukraine’s alleged plans to assassinate President Vladimir Putin, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledging the dangers to the Russian President. This comes after the head of Ukraine’s intel directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, reportedly disclosed Kyiv’s plans to target Putin in an interview with a Ukrainian news outlet.”

Russia and Europe

A Russian nuclear-powered submarine steamed north towards Norway, and did so unexpectedly on the surface, together with a destroyer and a landing vessel. “The reason for the Tambov sailing on the surface instead of diving is speculated to be due to a limited crew and its transit status.The Norwegian Armed Forces are closely monitoring the movement of these warships in their area of interest.”

A terrorist attack by ISIS on a bus terminal was thwarted in Russia.

NATO and Ukraine

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said that a new NATO command to support Ukraine will be operational in September. ‘“We have agreed to establish a command to coordinate and provide security assistance and training for Ukraine,” he said on arrival at a European Political Community meeting in Britain.’ The command will be located in Germany and will involve 700 personnel.

Stoltenberg said that NATO will not be involved in any conflict that might result if Poland were to shoot down missiles over Ukraine. “Stoltenberg opposes Poland using its air defence systems to shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine. Stoltenberg emphasized NATO’s support for Ukraine without direct involvement in the conflict. Polish officials are considering options for intercepting Russian missiles in Ukrainian airspace.”

Middle East

Israel and Hezbollah continue to edge closer to war. Israeli Defense Minister Gallant warns Hezbollah that the IDF can launch an offensive in Lebanon “in an instant.” ‘He says… that Israel is “approaching a decision-making crossroad.” “We are waging a limited war in the northern region. We are using a small part of the IDF’s power, but things can change in a second, from a main effort in the south to a main effort in the north, and it will be quick, surprising, and very sharp, it can also happen as a result of [Hezbollah’s] action.”’ An Israeli airstrike killed a top Hezbollah field commander in southern Lebanon this week, and the IDF is conducting exercises to prepare troops for war in Lebanon. In the meantime, Israeli residents along the country’s border with Lebanon are bracing for conflict, which they have seen many times before. On the Lebanese side of the border, some village areas are already destroyed. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed concern over the potential for a full-blown war between Hezbollah and Israel. As of this writing, the Polymarket prediction market puts the chance of an Israeli invasion of Lebanon before September at just over 30%, down from highs of 47% after Israel reportedly presented potential invasion plans to the US.

Israel’s war against Hamas continues, and prospects for a ceasefire in the near future seem dimmer. A week ago, an Israeli airstrike targeted Hamas’ military leader, Mohammed Deif. Hamas leaders claimed that Deif is “fine,” but there are increasing indications that he may not have survived. Since then, two Hamas officials have said that Hamas is withdrawing from Gaza ceasefire talks. In the past week, the head of the UN’s Palestinian relief agency, UNRWA, said that the Israeli military “flattened” the UNRWA headquarters in Gaza City. The IDF also conducted more strikes in Gaza.

An Israeli drone strike killed a prominent Syrian businessman who had close ties to Assad.

A Houthi drone attack killed one person and wounded at least 10 people in Tel Aviv. In retaliation, the Israeli military struck Houthi targets in Yemen. Several US lawmakers renewed calls for the Biden administration to designate the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.

US Secretary of State Blinken said that Iran is likely “one or two weeks away” from being able to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. ‘“What we’ve seen in the past weeks and months is Iran is actually moving forward” on developing fissile material, Blinken said Friday during a panel talk. … “Instead of being at least a year away from having breakout capacity to produce fissile material for a nuclear weapon, they’re probably one or two weeks away from doing that,” Blinken said, adding that “where we are now is not a good place.” “Now, they haven’t produced a weapon itself, but … you put those things together, fissile material, an explosive device, and you have a nuclear weapon,” he said. The United States was watching “very, very carefully” for any sign that Iran was working on the weapon side of producing a bomb, he said. The U.S. is also working on the diplomatic side to contain any further effort, Blinken said.’ National Security Advisor ‘Sullivan said, “I have not seen a decision by Iran to move” in a way that signals it has decided to actually develop a nuclear bomb right now.’

In Oman, ISIS claimed responsibility for an attack that killed six people at a Shiite mosque in the capital, Muscat. The gunmen were three brothers who were Omani citizens. The attack demonstrates that ISIS is attempting to develop a presence in the country.

South Asia

In Bangladesh, a tense situation exploded as the country deployed the army to quell massive job quota protests. In the end, the government backed down as the country’s highest court gave in to the protesters’ demands. Reuters reports that, “Nationwide unrest broke out over student anger against the quotas for government jobs, which included 30% reserved for the families of those who fought for independence from Pakistan. … The demonstrations – the biggest since Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was re-elected for a fourth successive term this year – have also been fuelled by high unemployment among young people, who make up nearly a fifth of the population. …. Soldiers patrolled the deserted streets of the Bangladesh capital Dhaka on Saturday, setting up roadblocks during a curfew imposed in response to student-led protests against government job quotas that have killed at least 110 people this week. … Internet and text message services have been suspended since Thursday.” The BBC reports that, “Bangladesh’s top court has scrapped most of the quotas on government jobs that had sparked violent clashes across the country that have killed more than 100 people. A third of public sector jobs had been reserved for the relatives of veterans from the country’s war for independence from Pakistan in 1971. But now the court has ruled just 5% of the roles can be reserved for veterans’ relatives.”

India and the US held a joint naval exercise in the Indian Ocean.

A senior Al Qaeda leader was detained in Punjab, Pakistan, because he allegedly planned to damage important sites in the province.

An Indian news organization claims that “50 trained, young terrorists from Pakistan” are now operating in Jammu — up from three in recent years.

China and Taiwan

China has suspended nuclear disarmament talks with the United States, citing US arms sales to Taiwan as a breach of trust.

China censored an article that called for Biden to exit the political stage and spend more time with his grandchildren, possibly because Xi doesn’t want people to call for him to exit the political stage, too.

Taiwan says that it is committed to strengthening its defenses after Trump made comments that suggested less than ironclad support for the island region. “Taiwan is committed to boosting its defences and working with the United States, the foreign ministry said on Thursday, days after Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump was quoted as saying Taiwan should pay to be defended.”

One commentator argued for a different US approach to the defense of Taiwan: a “strategy [that] entails arming Taiwan with the capabilities to inflict enough damage on the Chinese mainland to dissuade aggression in the first place” and for “the creation of regional alliances or partnerships to contain and deter China from an imperial jaunt in Asia.”

The Japanese and Taiwanese coast guards held their first joint search-and-rescue drill off Japan’s eastern coast, and China strongly opposed this drill being held.

China sent 18 military aircraft and seven warships to the Taiwan Strait on July 16.

Korean Peninsula

In a departure from previous US statements, Adm. Samuel Paparo, the commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, said that the US could “move forward” on providing nuclear submarines to South Korea if they are needed.

Africa

Mali’s ruling military junta has signed three cooperation agreements with Rosatom, the Russian state-owned nuclear company. Discussions about the construction of a low-power nuclear power plant have also been held.

The UN says that terrorism and organized crime are rampant in the Sahel region and are spilling over into West Africa coastal states.

In the northeastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a 15-day truce between the army and Rwanda-backed rebels has started. The US has been actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to reduce the ongoing violence that has displaced 7.3 million Congolese people.

Artificial Intelligence

The UK’s new govt seeks to regulate the most powerful AI models. King Charles III, in his King’s Speech, said that his Government would “seek to establish the appropriate legislation to place requirements on those working to develop the most powerful artificial intelligence models.” The new Labour government has previously indicated that it wants to make AI safety mandatory rather than voluntary. Former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, in his House of Commons response to the King’s Speech in his new capacity as Leader of the Opposition, warned that the UK is already the world leader in AI safety and that AI should not be over-regulated.

Biological Risks

Small numbers of farm workers are being infected with H5N1 influenza virus. A total of six human H5N1 cases have been reported among workers who culled a chicken flock infected with a strain descended from a cattle strain, and all cases are reported to be mild. However, not all farm workers who think they might have contracted an H5N1 infection are being tested, and some cases are likely being missed as the virus continues to spread among dairy cattle herds in the US. Nonetheless, the results of a recent, small seroprevalence study are reassuring; the study found no evidence that any of 35 workers on dairy farms with herds with confirmed H5N1 infections had been infected with H5N1 flu. One family in Oregon is worried that they may have contracted H5N1 bird flu, but given their lack of stated exposure to livestock, the symptoms that they report are likely caused by another virus. There is currently no evidence that H5N1 is spreading among humans; if it did, vaccines could be made available starting within weeks.

The risk of long Covid fell to an estimated 3.5% in the vaccinated, and 7.7% in the unvaccinated, in a population of US veterans following infection with Omicron. While this is good news, these are still substantial percentages, and with people becoming infected on average approximately once every two years, more people worldwide continue to develop substantial health problems because of Covid.

14.5 million children in the world have not received any vaccinations, and war is the main reason why, according to the UN. Another 6.5 million children are under-vaccinated. Vaccine hesitancy is also on the rise and is contributing to the large drop seen in global vaccination rates.

Malawi’s deadliest cholera outbreak has been declared to be over.

Malaria parasite resistance to artemesinin has risen over the past three years from 1% to over 20% in some countries in Africa. Artemesinin resistance has already appeared in Southeast Asia; based on experience there, one doctor estimates that malaria parasites will be largely resistant to artemesinin throughout Africa within 10-15 years. “We ask funders, especially di Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria and di US goment President Malaria Initiative make dem get vision and to raise funding for malaria control and elimination programmes so dem go fit match brake for di spread of artemisinin resistance for Africa”, reports GhanaWeb in the local dialect of English.

The Americas are experiencing the largest outbreak of dengue fever the region has ever seen. “Since the beginning of 2024, over 10 million dengue cases and over 5 000 dengue-related deaths have been reported from 80 countries/territories. Most cases globally have been reported from the WHO PAHO region. The over nine million cases reported by PAHO in 2024 are twice the number of cases reported throughout 2023. In the region, Brazil has reported most cases in 2024 (over eight million) followed by Argentina, Paraguay, Peru and Colombia.” Argentina reports over 520,000 dengue cases so far in 2024.

143 cases of travel-associated dengue fever cases have been reported in NY in the US so far in 2024. Dengue fever is spread by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which are not currently likely to thrive in New York state, so these cases are not likely to lead to local spread of dengue fever.

In Gujarat, India, 20 people are suspected to have died from Chandipura virus infections. “The virus, also known as the Chandipura Viral Encephalitis, is transmitted primarily by sandflies and mosquitoes, including the Aedes aegypti species that bite during the day and is also known to spread dengue. The infection can lead to encephalitis, or the inflammation of the active tissues of the brain.”

Vaccine-derived polio has emerged in Gaza because of extremely poor sanitation caused by the conflict.More than a million polio vaccine doses are being brought in to Gaza to vaccinate Palestinians; IDF soldiers will also be offered polio vaccines. According to the US CDC, “A vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) is a strain related to the weakened live poliovirus contained in oral polio vaccine (OPV). If allowed to circulate in under- or unimmunized populations for long enough, or replicate in an immunodeficient individual, the weakened virus can revert to a form that causes illness and paralysis. OPV is a safe and effective vaccine that contains a combination of one, two, or three strains of live, weakened poliovirus, and is given in the form of oral drops. OPV has been instrumental in eradicating wild polioviruses around the world, including in the United States, because it stops the spread of the virus by inducing immunity in the gut. VDPVs emerge when not enough people are vaccinated against polio, and the weakened strain of the poliovirus from OPV spreads among under-immunized populations.”

Computers and Cyberattacks

CrowdStrike bricked 8.5 million Windows machines worldwide. The company pushed an update to Windows machines that triggered the blue screen of death (BSOD); Reuters reports that the update likely skipped checks. Hospitals and banks were affected, airplanes were grounded around the world, and many flights remained canceled even three days later, among other problems. Many Internet and SMS services were suspended, and many overseas calls failed to connect. In the UK, the London Stock Exchange and NHS services were disrupted. It happens that the current CrowdStrike CEO was McAfee’s CTO when, in 2010, McAfee caused a problem with Windows XP that also disabled a large number of computers. The CrowdStrike BSOD event illustrates the fragility of our civilization; the consequences of a successful cyberattack on our critical infrastructure could be much worse. Root causes seem like compliance requirements forcing companies to go security theater, insufficiently testing the update before rolling it out, and imperfect but sticky architectural decisions in the modern compute stack. The update from Crowdstrike themselves was uninformative.

Significant cyberattacks continue happening regularly around the world. This week, we came across: a cyberattack that exposed the medical records of 12.9M people in Australia; an extensive ransomware attack that affected more than 200 government agencies in Indonesia; and the US, Philadelphia city employee emails were compromised.

Several hackers were arrested. Three pro-Russian hackers were arrested in Spain, and a 17-year-old English teenager was arrested in connection with a hacking group responsible for ransomware attacks on American companies.

Parts of Tonga have gone without internet service for more than two weeks after undersea cables were damaged. Making matters worse, the government forced Starlink to cease operations.

Climate Change

As ocean temperatures rise, the amount of oxygen dissolved in the water falls, and scientists are very concerned that this and other processes are reducing dissolved oxygen in the oceans towards dangerous levels. ‘A team of scientists is proposing that aquatic deoxygenation be added to the list of’planetary boundaries‘, which in its latest form describes nine domains that impose thresholds “within which humanity can continue to develop and thrive for generations to come.” So far, the planetary boundaries are climate change, ocean acidification, stratospheric ozone depletion, interference with the global phosphorus and nitrogen cycles, rate of biodiversity loss, global freshwater use, land-system change, aerosol loading, and chemical pollution. … “Relevant, critical oxygen thresholds are being approached at rates comparable to other planetary boundary processes.”’

The founder of Extinction Rebellion started a 5-year jail term in the UK on Friday.