Sentinel minutes for week #33/2024
Status: green. The WHO did declare the latest mpox outbreak to be a public health emergency.
Biorisk
Mpox
The World Health Organization declared that the latest mpox outbreak in the DRC and other African nations constitutes a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), and the Africa CDC declared the outbreak to be a public health emergency of continental security. Last week, forecasters assessed that both were, respectively, likely and almost certain to occur within the next year.
The WHO’s declaration came as Sweden became the first country outside Africa to record a case of the Clade 1b variant of mpox. In aggregate, forecasters believe that there’s a 92% chance (range: 90-95%) that at least 10 countries outside Africa will record at least one new case of mpox by the end of the year, but are less confident (55%) that more than 200 cases will be recorded outside Africa by the end of the year.
The European CDC maintains that the risk to the general population in Europe is low, an assessment that forecasters generally concur with for now, though for diverging reasons: better healthcare on the continent, stronger immune systems on a population level, or because the virus isn’t yet rampant in Europe. One forecaster remarked that they would be surprised if the infection fatality rate (IFR) will be much above that of the seasonal flu in Europe (the case-fatality rate for seasonal flu is about 0.16%). Although the case-fatality rate for Clade 1b of mpox is currently around 4%, forecasters believe that a significant portion of infections are being missed.
Countries and companies are preparing to donate mpox vaccines. The European Commission will donate 175,000 Bavarian Nordic vaccine doses and Bavarian Nordic, a Danish company, will donate 40,000 doses (with millions more well on their way). A week ago, the US announced $10M in donations to address the mpox outbreak in the DRC and surrounding countries. However, Canada currently has no plan to share vaccine doses.
H5N1
The WHO, along with the Food and Agriculture Organisation and the World Organisation for Animal Health, says that the global public health risk of the virus is currently low, in an updated report on H5N1
In the US, the Colorado Dept. of Public Health and Environment studied six cats infected with H5N1 bird flu and found that only one out of the six had any known exposure to infected dairy cattle. Two out of six were indoor-only cats, and the remainder were indoor-outdoor cats. These findings raise questions about how bird flu is spreading to cats.
Other biological risks
A new meta-analysis suggests that subacute and acute COVID-19 patients over the age of 65 were more likely to show evidence of cognitive impairment than similar cohorts studied before the pandemic. The passage of time after the infection did reduce some of the cognitive impairment in patients.
Humans are ingesting and inhaling more microplastics than at any time in recorded history. Microplastic consumption has risen sixfold globally since 1990, with Asian, African, and American countries all experiencing increases.
Geopolitics
Middle East
Hamas has withdrawn from the Gaza ceasefire talks despite Biden saying that a deal is close. Iran says that it will only refrain from attacking Israel if there is a ceasefire deal. US officials now assess that Iran is holding off on its retaliation against Israel, pending the outcome of ceasefire negotiations in Doha, and forecasters believe that it’s more likely than not that Iran will retaliate against Israel by the end of the year, but are less confident than they were a couple of weeks ago.
The United States has imposed new sanctions on Hezbollah. Canadians were advised to leave Lebanon, citing the risk of escalation between Israel and Hezbollah as fighting continues between the two sides. Forecasters believe that the probability of an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon by the end of the year to counter Hezbollah is roughly a coin toss.
The FBI is investigating an alleged plot by Iran to hack the Trump campaign, and Google says it also observed an Iranian group attempting to hack the Biden-Harris campaign. Despite this, Trump said that he hopes to “be friendly” with Iran, so one forecaster believes that this incident doesn’t significantly raise the risk of a US-Iran war on its own.
Europe
Ukraine’s incursion into the Russian region of Kursk continues, with its forces targeting strategically important infrastructure and reportedly making use of British tanks and Western HIMARS launchers. Russia additionally declared a state of emergency in a second region, Belgorod, following cross-border attacks from Ukraine, which have also seen Russian airfields targeted. Forecasters do not believe that the use of British tanks significantly raises the risk of a NATO-Russia war or of a nuclear catastrophe.
A new report suggests that Ukrainian elements were involved in the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in 2022, despite President Zelensky calling the operation off. This follows previous reports of Ukrainian involvement, but this account provides the most detail to date.
Asia-Pacific
South Korea and the United States will soon conduct one of their biggest military exercises of the year. The aim is to improve their ability to respond to threats posed by North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.
Tech
Elon Musk’s xAI launched Grok-2. Users have found that the model will freely respond to malicious questions, giving detailed instructions on how to build a fertilizer bomb. It also doesn’t appear to have guardrails on political content.
California has weakened its SB-1047 AI bill, which aimed to make frontier AI developers liable for catastrophic damages of their technology. Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has, notably, opposed the bill.
Sakana AI announced an automated scientist which it says is the world’s first AI system for automating scientific research. Some experts and observers expressed significant concern that the system tries to modify itself to improve its chances of completing tasks successfully.
The US has been putting pressure on the Netherlands to reduce exports of top-of-the-range ASML machinery to China. Recently, the Dutch Prime Minister diplomatically stated that he expects a “good result” from talks with the US the topic of export controls. Meanwhile, Chinese company Huawei is readying a new AI chip; the company is reportedly telling clients that it is comparable to Nvidia’s H100.