Sentinel minutes for week #40/2024

Status: yellow; forecasters did not anticipate events spiraling into global catastrophes this week but tensions between Israel and Iran remain high, while H5N1 and Mpox continue to spread.

Geopolitics

Middle East 

Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel, and some of the missiles appeared to avoid interception. Some struck or landed close to Israeli military and intelligence installations. The United States and the United Kingdom assisted or were ready to assist Israel’s defense.

Israel has vowed to respond, apparently warning Iran that it could strike its nuclear sites. Some Israeli officials including a former Prime Minister have called for such an attack, but others have said it’s not on the table. The United States and the G7 have warned against it because they fear it will result in an Iranian response and could result in Iran definitively making the decision to build a nuclear weapon. Russia has reportedly been sharing nuclear secrets with Iran, raising Israeli fears about Iran’s intentions.

A strike on Iranian oil refineries is also being discussed, according to President Biden and others, though the United States is opposed to this in part because it could affect the US Presidential election (crude oil prices and gasoline futures have already risen) and in part because it could lead to Iran targeting oil infrastructure in the US-allied Gulf states.

Forecasters currently think that Israeli strikes on Iranian military sites (such as missile launchers) by the end of 2024 are almost certain (~90%) to occur. They are less certain about a strike on Iranian oil facilities or nuclear sites; in aggregate, they believe there’s a 50% chance (range: 35%-70%) that Israel will successfully strike at least one nuclear site and a 61% chance (range: 50%-67%) that Israel will successfully strike at least one Iranian oil facility within the same timeframe. Forecasters noted that Iran has around ten main oil facilities, so striking even one could do significant damage. They also noted that Israel fired warning shots close to Iranian nuclear sites after Iran last launched ballistic missiles in April.

Meanwhile, Israel has continued with its invasion of Lebanon, in a combination of airstrikes, raids and incursions with the intention of rooting out Hezbollah. Strikes on Beirut were particularly notable. US officials were caught flat-footed.

Europe

European countries carried out an exercise to coordinate their emergency medical response in a land war.

Sahra Wagenknecht, head of the new German left-wing party BSW, called for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine.

Africa

A new report revises the number of people killed in a terrorist attack by al Qaeda in Burkina Faso earlier this year to 600.

Biorisk

H5N1

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is conducting an extensive probe into the Missouri bird flu case. According to them, “the virus has two potentially important mutations, meaning two amino acid differences, in comparison with the viruses previously characterized during this event that could affect antigenicity.” 

Two people in California have been infected with bird flu, caused by occupational exposure to dairy cows, bringing the total number of confirmed cases in the United States to 16. There have been 0 fatalities. A third probable human bird flu case has also been detected in California, in another dairy worker.

H5N1 is occasionally detected in wastewater in various cities, most likely from animal sources, but it would be useful to obtain more wastewater sequence data. Also, it should be noted that if H5N1 were to spread to humans via infection from dairy cows, initial wastewater sequence data would look like cattle-origin H5N1 sequences, with an increasing number of mutations.

H5N1 continues to spread in dairy herds, especially in California. The virus has been found in a total of 282 dairy herds in the US to date, including 82 herds in California, which is actively testing herds. H5N1 has been killing 10-15% of animals in affected dairy herds.

Mpox

Mpox continues to spread in and near the Democratic Republic of Congo, including in the capital, Kinshasa. "The Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported more than 30 000 suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases, and 990 deaths since the start of 2024 – accounting for 90% of the cases reported from 15 countries in the African region so far this year." Ghana has confirmed its first case of mpox, and about 230 suspected cases are being investigated. The specific clade that caused the confirmed case is currently unclear.

Congo has begun a major mpox vaccination campaign. Nigeria is set to begin its mpox vaccination campaign. A total of 275,000 vaccines have been delivered to sub-Saharan Africa so far. However, vaccine efficacy will likely fade over about one year.

The World Health Organization has approved the first mpox diagnostic test, a real-time PCR test, for emergency use. This will help to boost global access to testing.

Other biological risks

A Marburg virus outbreak in Rwanda continues to grow but will soon hopefully be under control, thanks to public health efforts, including vaccination.

As climate change raises temperatures, some counties in the US are now having to deal with dengue and other mosquito-spread illnesses, like West Nile Virus.

Tech

OpenAI has raised $6.6B in its latest funding round, with the company now valued at $157B. OpenAI’s recent moves towards becoming a for-profit has received significant criticism, including from two employees that recently quit, Gretchen Kreuger and Carroll Wainwright, with Wainwright saying “you should not believe OpenAI when it promises to do the right thing later”. Elon Musk said the company is “evil”, and that he thinks the move is illegal. OpenAI has asked investors to avoid investing in competitors.

A Department of Homeland Security assessment anticipates that Russia, Iran, and China will attempt to influence the US elections, including by using artificial intelligence to disseminate fake and divisive information.

Presidents Biden and Xi are to hold a phone discussion in the coming days with a focus on AI risks and safety. US officials have said that they “seek opportunities, whenever possible, to find common ground with China, whether on issues such as fentanyl or discussions on artificial intelligence risks and safety.”

South Korea convened an international summit seeking to establish a blueprint for the responsible use of AI in the military, though any agreement is not expected to be binding.

Meta announces a new AI model that can generate video with sound.

Microsoft has revamped Copilot with new voice and reasoning capabilities.

The US Commerce Department has said it plans to award $100m to boost the use of AI in developing new sustainable semiconductor materials.