Hi, I am suprised I do not read about Greenland in this report. What do you think what is the chance Trump´s administration would really buy it/occupy it by 2029?
Hey, thanks for your comment. In Week 2 of 2025, we gave this a 14% chance: “Forecasters think that a Greenland acquisition by the US, whether by annexation or a compact of free association, is an unlikely but real possibility in Trump’s first term; they give it an aggregate chance of 14% (range 2% to 37%).”
Edit: Polymarket gives a 10% by eoy 2025, but I see you asked by 2029, which does give it enough time for the wheels of the administration to e.g., do a referendum etc. Maybe 25% then?
I'm trying to make sense of Donald Trump's world, but I’ve failed to predict him many times already. So while I’d say the probability of this is below 50%, I can still imagine him actually going for Greenland. What concerns me most is the potential ripple effect—it could normalize the idea of occupying territory simply because you need it, setting off a dangerous precedent.
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Thanks man
Hi, I am suprised I do not read about Greenland in this report. What do you think what is the chance Trump´s administration would really buy it/occupy it by 2029?
Hey, thanks for your comment. In Week 2 of 2025, we gave this a 14% chance: “Forecasters think that a Greenland acquisition by the US, whether by annexation or a compact of free association, is an unlikely but real possibility in Trump’s first term; they give it an aggregate chance of 14% (range 2% to 37%).”
Polymarket gives it ~10%; that doesn't seem that off. https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-in-2025?tid=1742849779544
I'm curious whether you see the more alarming versions of this (occupation, NATO fragments) as live possibilities.
Edit: Polymarket gives a 10% by eoy 2025, but I see you asked by 2029, which does give it enough time for the wheels of the administration to e.g., do a referendum etc. Maybe 25% then?
I'm trying to make sense of Donald Trump's world, but I’ve failed to predict him many times already. So while I’d say the probability of this is below 50%, I can still imagine him actually going for Greenland. What concerns me most is the potential ripple effect—it could normalize the idea of occupying territory simply because you need it, setting off a dangerous precedent.