Hi, I am suprised I do not read about Greenland in this report. What do you think what is the chance Trump´s administration would really buy it/occupy it by 2029?
Hey, thanks for your comment. In Week 2 of 2025, we gave this a 14% chance: “Forecasters think that a Greenland acquisition by the US, whether by annexation or a compact of free association, is an unlikely but real possibility in Trump’s first term; they give it an aggregate chance of 14% (range 2% to 37%).”
Edit: Polymarket gives a 10% by eoy 2025, but I see you asked by 2029, which does give it enough time for the wheels of the administration to e.g., do a referendum etc. Maybe 25% then?
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Thanks man
Hi, I am suprised I do not read about Greenland in this report. What do you think what is the chance Trump´s administration would really buy it/occupy it by 2029?
Hey, thanks for your comment. In Week 2 of 2025, we gave this a 14% chance: “Forecasters think that a Greenland acquisition by the US, whether by annexation or a compact of free association, is an unlikely but real possibility in Trump’s first term; they give it an aggregate chance of 14% (range 2% to 37%).”
Polymarket gives it ~10%; that doesn't seem that off. https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-in-2025?tid=1742849779544
I'm curious whether you see the more alarming versions of this (occupation, NATO fragments) as live possibilities.
Edit: Polymarket gives a 10% by eoy 2025, but I see you asked by 2029, which does give it enough time for the wheels of the administration to e.g., do a referendum etc. Maybe 25% then?