Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, FARC spinout drone attacks | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025
Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.
Executive summary
Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.
Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK.
Tech and AI: Meta’s policies explicitly allowed its AI chatbots to “engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual.”
And more: Three soldiers were killed and four others injured in a drone attack by FARC dissidents on the Colombian military.
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Geopolitics
Trump/Putin summit in Alaska
Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Before the summit, forecasters estimated a 27% (15% to 40%) probability of a ceasefire by October 1. After the summit, our forecast dropped to a 9% probability (2% to 30%).
Before the summit, Zelensky told his European counterparts that he would be willing to formally cede territory that Russia already occupies in exchange for freezing the conflict along the current frontlines, while Putin was demanding that Ukraine withdraw its troops from the entirety of the Donbas in exchange for a freeze everywhere else (a demand Zelensky rejected). Trump also threatened “severe consequences” for Russia if a ceasefire wasn’t agreed, presumably in the form of more military aid to Ukraine and further sanctions and secondary tariffs on Russia. Still, based on the failure of previous talks, our forecasts for the chance of a ceasefire were significantly below 50%, although the fact that Trump and Putin were meeting at all was setting high expectations (with Trump claiming a 75% chance that the summit would be successful).
After the summit, forecasters consistently reduced their estimates. Trump didn’t take the chance to exert pressure, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arguing that further sanctions would only prolong the war. Instead, Trump adopted Putin’s position of aiming for a comprehensive peace agreement, which would likely take much longer to achieve, as there are many issues to resolve. With Putin proposing a land swap (potentially slanted 10-to-1 in favour of Russia) that puts Russian soldiers on the Kyiv side of the extensive defensive lines Ukraine has built, some of our forecasters believe there is a big gulf between the two sides’ positions, a sentiment echoed by Rubio. Others think that withdrawal from the Donbas might be acceptable to Ukraine if there are robust security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a peace deal, most likely in the form of European boots on the ground in the country.
US officials have said that the US is now willing to participate in a security arrangement for Ukraine, marking a shift from their previous stance that Europe would be solely responsible for this. However, it isn’t clear whether Russia has softened its stance on security guarantees for Ukraine. US envoy Steve Witkoff claims it has, whereas Rubio was more evasive, merely saying that this is something they’re “working on” and that Russia has to understand. A Russian envoy in Vienna claimed that Russia agrees that Ukraine should have “reliable security assurances”, but it isn’t clear what that means.
Overall, Putin used the summit to increase his status in the eyes of Russians and third-party nations, by standing with Trump as a peer. For Trump, the summit distracted from his domestic problems and placated his base, who can say that he tried diplomacy. Politically, enough time had likely passed between his previous anger at attacks on major Ukrainian cities far from the front lines and the present softening of his stance on Russia.
Forecasters now view the possibility of a ceasefire by October 1 as remote, but some can envisage it if the broad outlines of a deal are quickly agreed at the imminent White House summit with Trump, Zelensky and multiple European leaders (and it is the case that Russia has softened its stance on security guarantees). However, even if a deal is agreed, Putin could shift the goalposts. Alternatively, if there is another row between Trump and Zelensky, Ukraine is very unlikely to stop fighting and agree to Russia’s terms before October 1, even if the US suspends military aid and intelligence support to Ukraine.
If a ceasefire does happen, it would lower the risk of a nuclear exchange between nuclear-armed Western countries and Russia over the next year, and would probably lower energy prices for populations around the world as the supply of Russian oil and gas increases.
Middle East
Israel is negotiating with several countries (Indonesia, Libya, Somaliland, Uganda and South Sudan) to take in Gazans. Indonesia previously agreed to take in 2,000 Gazans. South Sudan strongly denied that talks were occurring. Forecasters estimate a 20% probability that Israel will relocate 1K or more Gazans to a country in Sub-Saharan Africa before the end of 2025. On the one hand, it has a lot of internal logic for Israel. Initial voluntary relocations could help to de-stigmatize future displacements, and cash can be appealing to a host nation. Relocations can be framed as humanitarian, rather than as acts of ethnic cleansing. On the other hand, Muslim-majority nations are likely to be strongly opposed to any such move.
Israel continues to receive international condemnation. Ireland intends to pass a bill to ban the import of goods from Israel, and Australia will recognize a Palestinian state. Deaths from starvation continue.
Terrorists in Gaza were caught using the emblem and vests of the World Central Kitchen.
Europe
Poland, Sweden and Norway accused Russia of cyberattacks on dams and water infrastructure. Sweden is building a new multi-layer radar system capable of detecting threats from the sea, air and space, and are aiming to have it operational by 2026.
A “potentially serious nuclear incident” took place at a Scottish naval base. A source mentions that the UK’s Royal Navy has experienced difficulties with recruiting and retaining personnel in general, and nuclear engineers in particular—see for instance a recent patrol lasting for a grueling 204 days.. The UK could continue to lose expertise while still being a nuclear power, and these incidents could become larger and more serious with time.
United States
A US appeals court says that the Trump administration can cut billions in foreign aid.
Trump picked a loyal supporter, E.J. Antoni, to head the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The choice was not well received by investors or economists. He suggested that the BLS should pause releasing monthly jobs reports until the data could be made more reliable but later backtracked and said that he would continue to release the reports if he is confirmed. He was in the crowd at the Capitol on January 6; the administration said he was a “bystander.”
Annual wholesale inflation (the producer price index) rose 3.3% for the year ending in July.
Lawyers for migrants being held in the “Alligator Alcatraz” prison in Florida claim that their clients are battling terrible health conditions. Gov. DeSantis of Florida announced that the state plans to open a second immigration detention facility, to be called “Deportation Depot.”
800 DC National Guard troops were deployed in the capital. Several hundred more National Guard troops from South Carolina, West Virginia and Ohio will soon join them.
California Gov. Newsom plans to launch a redistricting effort in the state, in response to Trump’s and Texas Gov. Abbott’s push to redistrict Texas to obtain five more Republican seats in Congress.
Elsewhere in the Americas
Three soldiers were killed, four others injured in a drone attack by FARC dissidents on the Colombian military
Asia
China and India are in talks to resume border trade of domestic goods across their previously hotly contested Himalayan border after a 5-year hiatus. China’s foreign minister will visit India this week. We previously reported on India and China scrapping visa restrictions on each other’s citizens.
A Chinese navy ship collided with a Chinese coast guard vessel while pursuing a Philippines coast guard boat. Subsequently, China claimed to have expelled US warships from “Chinese territorial waters” in the South China Sea.
A former senior US Navy commander warned that the US is unprepared for a Chinese attack on Taiwan’s energy system, warning that China could attempt to block imports of LNG, which is used for around half of Taiwan’s power production.
On India’s Independence Day, Modi vowed to punish Pakistan in the event of future attacks.
Africa
Children are dying of hunger in Darfur's el-Fasher city, with the Sudan war continuing to rage on. There is precedent for a terrible famine in the region, with a famine having killed 70K people in 1998.
There was an alleged attempted coup in Mali.
The US approved sales of weapons worth $346 million to Nigeria.
The US imposed sanctions on an armed group and mining firms in Congo over the sale of illicit critical minerals.
Artificial Intelligence
In an internal document, Meta included policies that allowed its AI chatbots to “engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual,” according to a report from Reuters. Meta changed those portions of the document after being contacted by Reuters.
DeepSeek’s next AI model was reportedly delayed by an attempt to use Chinese chips from Huawei, highlighting China’s continuing dependence on NVIDIA chips. On the other side, the US is reportedly placing tracking devices on chips being exported to detect diversions to China.
Anthropic’s Claude 4 model now supports million-token context windows.
The Wall Street Journal analyzed thousands of public postings of conversations with ChatGPT, and found dozens of examples of users experiencing AI psychosis.
Altman said “AGI” has become a pointless term. One forecaster believes there’s some merit to his claim, because there are now so many varied yet common definitions that it is often unclear what people mean by the term. However, Altman’s position is complicated because under current arrangements, Microsoft is not entitled to any of OpenAI’s “post-AGI” technology. Another forecaster believes that this is another example of people who claimed to have short (pre-2030) timelines shifting the goalposts.
A model developed by OpenAI achieved a gold medal-level score at the International Olympiad in Informatics. OpenAI is reportedly giving bonuses to some employees in the millions of dollars. Altman is planning a brain implant startup to compete with Musk’s Neuralink: OpenAI reportedly wants to invest in a startup called Merge Labs, which aims to merge humans and machines.
Sweden’s Prime Minister has received criticism for his use of ChatGPT, after saying that he regularly consults AIs for a second opinion on his decisions. Aftonbladet, one of the largest Swedish newspapers, accused Prime Minister Kristersson of falling “for the oligarchs’ AI psychosis”.
Biorisk
China continues to combat a chikugunya outbreak that we reported on last week, with the outbreak surpassing 10,000 cases and expanding to 119 countries, including Taiwan and temperate countries like France and the UK.
Gaza’s health system is in disarray, with hospitals overwhelmed, and drug-resistant bacteria spreading.
Bangladesh is bracing for a potentially devastating dengue outbreak as cases surge. The country has documented 105 deaths and over 26,378 infections so far this year
An Indian court ordered the removal of thousands of stray dogs from the Delhi region, responding to concerns about rabies. India is facing the highest rabies toll in the world, with approximately 5,700 deaths annually according to government statistics, while some estimates suggest the numbers could be as high as 20,000. The stray dog population in Delhi has surged, supposedly increasing from 60,000 in 2012 to close to 1 million today.