The US bombed Kharg Island, home to Iran’s main oil terminal, but spared its oil facilities. A US Marine Expeditionary Unit is being sent from Japan to the Middle East. Trump and said that NATO faces a “very bad future” if its members didn’t send ships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and attempted to arrange a coalition to do so, but failed.
Would appreciate a "why it's yellow this week" in the executive summary.
IIRC yellow = no action needed but pay attention? If so would be useful to hear very quickly what to pay attention to / otherwise what the upshot of the yellow should be for me
Hey, thanks for raising this; I guess I'm so deep into this that I thought this was implicit:
- A longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz will raise oil prices and hurt the economy; one forecaster was throwing out 0.3-0.5% of global GDP if this goes on for three more weeks. In the worst case, this is a recession or depression. As we mentioned last week, Gulf States will now be pulling investment out of the US and into their own defense, e.g., procuring drone defenses from Ukraine
- On that topic, the conflict is pretty globalized, and this combines with the war in Ukraine. It seems worth watching the extent of Chinese and Russian support to Iran.
The update should be that these global events have the chance to make your life worse, initially through increased prices and then later perhaps through you just getting a worse deal as a citizen in a Western country. What you want to do at this point is up to you, you can try to play the markets, you can push forward consumption, you can invest your money in assets that are harder to tax or less vulnerable to inflation. You could look into charities that intervene in this region.
But also, some of the worst case scenarios, e.g., a nuclear weapon be used, will China invade Taiwan now, will the economy implode today, now seem screened off, so you don't want to be too paranoid either.
Yeap, the last sentences seems a paranoia starting. Surely, we forecasters must do our Best to keep a rational posture with more careful pondérations
Although one can say that. I times like these with so many news and events daily. I would say that 96% of Forecaster fall In the inside view trap and starts super estimating everything based on day to day signposts.
Idk, Sentinel is focused on the biggest risks, and considering whether they may manifest or not doesn't seem paranoical, particularly given that we concluded that in this case they *didn't*
Would appreciate a "why it's yellow this week" in the executive summary.
IIRC yellow = no action needed but pay attention? If so would be useful to hear very quickly what to pay attention to / otherwise what the upshot of the yellow should be for me
Hey, thanks for raising this; I guess I'm so deep into this that I thought this was implicit:
- A longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz will raise oil prices and hurt the economy; one forecaster was throwing out 0.3-0.5% of global GDP if this goes on for three more weeks. In the worst case, this is a recession or depression. As we mentioned last week, Gulf States will now be pulling investment out of the US and into their own defense, e.g., procuring drone defenses from Ukraine
- On that topic, the conflict is pretty globalized, and this combines with the war in Ukraine. It seems worth watching the extent of Chinese and Russian support to Iran.
- As a conflict, it will cause death and devastation. E.g., almost 700K people displaced in Lebanon: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lives-being-upended-massive-scale-lebanon-says-un-refugee-agency-2026-03-10/
The update should be that these global events have the chance to make your life worse, initially through increased prices and then later perhaps through you just getting a worse deal as a citizen in a Western country. What you want to do at this point is up to you, you can try to play the markets, you can push forward consumption, you can invest your money in assets that are harder to tax or less vulnerable to inflation. You could look into charities that intervene in this region.
But also, some of the worst case scenarios, e.g., a nuclear weapon be used, will China invade Taiwan now, will the economy implode today, now seem screened off, so you don't want to be too paranoid either.
How do you choose the color? Is it vibes based on everything going on, or numerical somehow?
Yeap, the last sentences seems a paranoia starting. Surely, we forecasters must do our Best to keep a rational posture with more careful pondérations
Although one can say that. I times like these with so many news and events daily. I would say that 96% of Forecaster fall In the inside view trap and starts super estimating everything based on day to day signposts.
Idk, Sentinel is focused on the biggest risks, and considering whether they may manifest or not doesn't seem paranoical, particularly given that we concluded that in this case they *didn't*