🟩 Ukraine peace plan, US continues activity around Venezuela, state AI regulation moratorium round 2 || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #47/2025
Executive summary
We’re a group of top forecasters who parse millions of news pieces a week to identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you. Here are our top items and forecasts for this week
Geopolitics: The US proposes a peace plan favorable to Russia, and Ukraine and the EU push back. US military activities around Venezuela continue.
Forecasters believe there’s a 25% chance (20% to 30%) that face-to-face negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian officials will happen before February 2026, and a 26% chance (15% to 40%) that both Russia and Ukraine will announce that they have agreed to a ceasefire of any duration, covering all of Ukrainian and Russian territory, by the end of March 2026.
They estimate that there’s a 71% chance (42% to 85%) that the US military carries out an attack on Venezuelan territory before 2026, and a 51% chance (20% to 70%) that Maduro will still be in power in Venezuela at the end of March 2026.
Tech and AI: The Trump administration wants to restrict the ability of individual US states to regulate AI. Gemini 3 was released. We updated our estimates of an AI cyberattack leading to ≥1B in damages.
They think there’s a 38% chance (30% to 55%) that Trump will sign an executive order that disincentivises or bans individual US states from passing certain laws that regulate the development of artificial intelligence before March 2026.
In light of increasing AI capabilities and last week’s Anthropic warning about AI-orchestrated cyber espionage, forecasters believe there’s a 51% chance (45% to 60%) chance that there will be an AI-assisted cyberattack causing at least $1 billion in damages over the next three months, slightly up from a 44% chance (37% to 50%) in week 35 of this year.
Economy: The US Federal Reserve is easing its oversight of banks and other lenders.
Geopolitics
Europe
The Trump administration said that it wanted Ukraine to quickly agree to a peace proposal developed by US and Russian negotiators that involved imposing limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces. Ukraine’s President Zelensky said that his country might have to choose between its “dignity” and retaining the support of the US, and the EU drafted its own counterproposal. US officials, including Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Special Envoy for Peace Missions Steve Witkoff, later held talks with Ukrainian officials in Geneva and worked on an updated peace framework. The possibility that Putin will breach any settlement is likely Trump’s primary concern with forcing a peace deal on Ukraine.
Keith Kellogg, currently the US Special Envoy for Ukraine, is likely to step down from his post in January, in part because he would have to be confirmed by the Senate to stay in his post for more than 360 days. One forecaster suggests that Senate support would be relatively easy to secure, so there could be additional reasons for his planned departure, including frustration with Witkoff, who helped to draft the latest peace proposal. Kellogg was widely viewed as sympathetic to Ukraine, so his departure will be a loss for Zelensky.
Overall, forecasters believe there’s a 25% (20% to 30%) chance that face-to-face negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian officials will happen before February 2026, and a 26% (15% to 40%) chance that both Russia and Ukraine will announce that they have agreed to a ceasefire of any duration, covering all of Ukrainian and Russian territory, by the end of March 2026.
Meanwhile, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Russia could be ready to attack NATO as early as 2028 or 2029, a sentiment echoed by Swedish Chief of Defense Gen. Michael Claesson.
Poland charged three Ukrainians suspected of collaborating with Russian secret services with “acts of sabotage of a terrorist nature” for an explosion that damaged a rail line used to deliver goods to Ukraine. At least two of the suspects fled across the border to Belarus, a Russian ally. Western media have not appeared to report whether those goods include military aid.
A Russian spy ship, the Yantar, pointed lasers at Royal Air Force (RAF) pilots who were tracking the vessel as it was moving in waters north of Scotland.
A former regional leader of the UK’s Reform Party was sentenced to 10-and-a-half years in prison after he pleaded guilty to taking bribes to make pro-Russia statements in the European Parliament and the media.
The Americas
Latin America
The US State Department’s official designation of Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization goes into effect on November 24. US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said that the designation provides the US with “new options” to use against the alleged drug cartel and its alleged head, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Trump has said that he might be willing to pursue talks with Maduro. However, as the Trump administration floated the idea of dropping leaflets exerting pressure on Maduro to step down, it looks most likely that Maduro has not made such an offer.
Last Thursday, the US flew a large number of military planes off the coast of Venezuela, in a show of force and perhaps as a dress rehearsal for future action. The flights exert pressure on the Maduro regime and collect data on Venezuelan military preparations for potential US military strikes.
The US issued a series of flight advisories for airspace in the areas of Puerto Rico, Venezuela and the Gulf of America. The notice for Venezuela advises of the potential for “heightened military activity” at any altitude. The advisory for the Gulf of America is for Tuesday 1400-1700 UTC and would be consistent with tanker refueling operations for US bombers during that time. One forecaster mentions that the advisory for Venezuela would be an act of war if announced for the US, or for Taiwan by China.
We’ve seen a few flights from Caracas to Panama (commercial) and back, and to Cuba, São Paulo (linked to the regime?), a few local flights, but the airspace has mostly emptied out, and airlines have generally cancelled flights. We think that diplomats mostly aren’t leaving. It also appears that the US is also sending more B-52 flights today.
Overall, forecasters estimate that there’s a 71% (42% to 85%) chance that the US military carries out an attack on Venezuelan territory before 2026, and a 51% (20% to 70%) chance that Maduro will still be in power in Venezuela at the end of March 2026.
A forecaster writes:
> All of the forces necessary are in place and the terror designation is now in effect. Reasons that I am not higher is that opening moves may be covert and Maduro may be able to engage in negotiations that stall a rush to a kinetic attack. There are splits within the Trump administration and the MAGA camp as to whether an against Venezuela deviates too far from an American isolationist policy. The NOTAM [air advisory] is a major escalation which increases my forecast that an attack is imminent.
United States
US President Donald Trump called the behavior of Democratic lawmakers seditious, and mentioned seditious behavior was punishable by death after they encouraged military and intelligence officials to disobey any unlawful orders they received from the administration. The White House later claimed that Trump does not want to see them put to death.
Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) are using license plate readers to track vehicle travel patterns within the US, to identify and stop drivers whose travel they deem “suspicious”.
China invested over $200M in over 2,500 critical infrastructure and technology projects in the US from 2000 to 2023.
Middle East
The Trump administration agreed to sell the US’s most advanced fighter jet, the F-35, to Saudi Arabia. This is despite concerns that the technology could fall into China’s hands and fears among some Republicans, in particular, that the sale could erode Israel’s military advantage in the Middle East, as Israel is currently the only country in the region that operates the jet.
Iranian nuclear experts held at least two covert meetings last year with Russian scientists and companies, to acquire technology and items related to nuclear weapons development. On one visit, Iranian scientists and engineers visited a company called Laser Systems, and in February 2025, a Laser Systems researcher visited Tehran. It is speculated that Iran may be attempting to acquire laser technology and expertise to validate their nuclear weapon designs without having to conduct explosive tests.
There was another breach of the ceasefire in Gaza, with Israeli strikes reportedly killing more than two dozen Palestinians after Israel alleged that Hamas fired on its soldiers in Khan Younis.
Asia
Pakistan’s armed forces killed 23 militants during raids near its border with Afghanistan.
Technology and artificial intelligence
In the US, Donald Trump is backing a proposal to disincentivise or ban individual US states from passing certain laws that regulate the development of artificial intelligence, with the White House in the process of drafting an executive order that may establish an AI taskforce to launch lawsuits against states that enact AI regulations and threaten federal funding for those states. Forecasters think there’s a 38% (30% to 55%) chance that Trump will sign such an executive order before March 2026. Forecasters point out that the time horizon is reasonably large, and that Congress is relatively ineffective and so an executive order might be the sole means for effective action from the administration on this topic.
Google released Gemini 3 Pro. It achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple benchmarks, including Humanity’s Last Exam, where it scores 37.5% without tools, and 45.8% with search and code execution. Claude Sonnet 4.5 scores 13.7% without tools, while GPT-5.1 scores 26.5%. Google also released Nano Banana Pro, which can generate even more realistic visual images, or diagrams with text such as this one:
Forecasters estimated a 51% (45% to 60%) chance that an AI-assisted cyberattack would cause $1B or more in damages in the next three months, up from an earlier estimate of 44% for a three month period earlier this year. Some forecasters were moved by Anthropic’s announcement last week, others just by rising AI capabilities.
METR evaluated OpenAI’s GPT-5.1-Codex-Max and found it to have a 50% time horizon of around 2 hours and 40 minutes, which they describe as an “on-trend improvement from GPT-5’s 2h17m”.
Robotics company Figure AI is being sued by a whistleblower who says he was unlawfully fired after warning executives about product safety, saying that the company’s robots could “fracture a human skull”.
The super PAC backed by VC firm Andreessen Horowitz and OpenAI’s President Greg Brockman has chosen NY Assembly member Alex Bores as its first target. The Leading the Future Super PAC has more than $100 million lined up to lobby against AI regulation. Alex Bores was one of the coauthors of New York’s RAISE Act, which requires developers of the most capable AIs to write, implement, and publish redacted versions of safety plans for their AI development, and to report critical safety incidents.
Nvidia’s Q3 2025 revenues beat market expectations, which initially eased concerns about an “AI bubble” and propelled the company’s stock price higher.
And: Anthropic is expanding its use of Google Cloud TPUs and Services, planning for up to 1 million TPUs. Microsoft and Nvidia announced new strategic partnerships with Anthropic, with Microsoft investing $5B, and Nvidia investing up to $10B. Microsoft’s “Agent 365” product will reportedly let businesses manage AI agents like people. Oracle may be underwater on its $300 billion OpenAI deal.
Economy
The US Federal Reserve is easing its oversight of banks and other lenders, and reducing the number of staff devoted to doing so. Some argue that this increases the risk of another financial crisis.
Japanese bond prices again reached new heights, as investors expect the new Japanese government to increase spending.
An analysis by Max Roser of Our World in Data suggests that progress against extreme poverty may end in the 2030s unless the poorest economies grow (or grow faster), at least when considering absolute numbers.
Bitcoin’s rout continued last week. Bitcoin’s price has fallen approximately 30% since its peak in October.
Big tech companies are expected to spend almost $3T from 2025 to 2028 to finance data centers. The companies are expected to issue approximately $200B in corporate bonds during this time, a dramatic increase over previous years.
Biorisks
An analysis by ProPublica suggests that bird flu may be able to spread between poultry farms by air.
A newly emerged subclade K strain of ordinary seasonal H3N2 influenza is spreading in several countries and raising concerns that this year’s flu season could be more severe than usual. Early data indicate that the subclade K strain carries multiple mutations that may make it more capable of evading prior immunity and somewhat less well matched to this year’s vaccine than usual. However, UK HSA data suggest that the current vaccine still offers reasonable levels of protection against infection across age groups and will likely offer reasonable levels of protection against severe disease as well.
You can listen to an informal discussion about that H3N2 strain on Twitter here.
A patient in Washington state in the US who had the first known human H5N5 infection, likely contracted from a backyard poultry flock, has died. The virus may pose an inherent risk to humans similar to that from H5N1 bird flu but is likely far less widespread.