🟡 US comedian’s show suspended after government pressure, Russian jets flew over Estonia, open-source AIs designed new genome variants || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #38/2025
Executive summary
Top items:
Geopolitics: Russian jets entered Estonia’s airspace. An agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia could bring Saudi Arabia under Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella.
US Politics: A US comedian’s show was suspended after the FCC chair exerted pressure on his network and on companies that own local TV stations. The Trump administration plans to announce actions targeting left-wing groups.
Tech and AI: Open-source AIs were used to design variants of a simple virus genome, eliminating the need for most lab work.
Economy: The US Fed cut interest rates by 0.25%, in line with expectations. The Shiller PE ratio is 39.95, the highest since the dotcom bubble.
Forecaster estimates:
What is the chance that Maduro will still be in power on Jan 1, 2026? 88% (30%, 90%, 92%, 95%, 96%)
What is the chance that any US troops will be reported to be on the ground in Venezuela in 2025? 11% (3%, 7%, 8%, 55%)
What is the chance that the US military will be reported to strike any location on Venezuelan land in 2025? 39% (10% to 70%)
What is the chance that Russia will fly at least one more jet over Estonia in 2025? 38%.
Conditional on Russia flying at least one more jet over Estonia in 2025, what is the chance that it will be downed by Estonian or NATO forces? 13% (10% to 20%)
What is the chance that another late-night comedian in the US will lose his show for at least one month in 2025? 19% (12% to 30%)
Overall, the combination of continued violations of NATO airspace, the FCC exerting pressure on a network to fire a comedian, and the new AI generated virus, is enough to move our alert status to yellow (🟡), denoting our impression of increased risk and a pointer to our reserve team to pay more attention to this week’s events.
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Geopolitics
Europe
Multiple Russian jets entered Estonia’s airspace. Three MiG-31 fighter jets were involved, and they remained in Estonia’s airspace for 12 minutes. In response, NATO sent Italian F-35 fighter jets to intercept them. Russian jets have entered Estonia’s airspace at least three other times in 2025, but this comes after Russian drones entered Polish and Romanian airspace very recently, and Estonia’s Foreign Minister called the incursion “unprecedentedly brazen”.
Estonia also invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty, which requires all member states to attend a discussion about the issue that is a threat to its territorial integrity, political independence, or security. Since NATO’s founding in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked only 7 times prior to this month. As reported last week, Poland invoked article 4 this September 10th. The better-known Article 5 has been invoked only once, by the US, after the attacks of September 11, 2001.
Some in Estonian media also asked the Prime Minister about why the Russian jets weren’t shot down, to which the PM essentially replied that there are rules of engagement and that the NATO response was sufficient. However, the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Estonian Parliament took a more hawkish stance, implying that a Russian jet will be shot down “next time” (the “17 seconds” in his tweet referring to the amount of time that a Russian jet spent in Turkish airspace before being shot down in 2015).
Forecasters estimate a 38% chance (range, 20% to 61%) that Russia will fly at least 1 more jet over Estonia in 2025. They note that there have been four such instances this year, and 40 since 2014, giving a high base rate. But, on the other hand, Russia might want to try a different provocation. One forecaster brings up Vaindloo island as a good spot to fly over.
We also estimate a 13% chance (range, 10% to 20%) that, conditional on Russia flying at least one more jet over Estonia in 2025, it will be downed by Estonian or NATO forces. We think NATO is quite unwilling to escalate conflict with Russia.
And: Denmark will buy $9B worth of air defense systems. Elections in the Republic of Moldova will be be held on September 28 amid Russian interference. France saw large-scale protests against proposed government budget cuts.
United States
Comedian Jimmy Kimmel’s late-night TV show was suspended after a threat by the FCC chair over comments that Charlie Kirk’s alleged killer was a MAGA supporter. The suspension was likely done to smooth upcoming potential merger agreements between ABC affiliate companies that own local TV stations, which would require FCC approval. In a social media post after Kimmel’s show was suspended, Trump also called for two other comedians to lose their shows, and later, he threatened NPR as well. While many in the US welcomed the loss of his show, others feared that it represented an inroad against free speech and towards government control of the media.
For comparison, in the same week, a Fox and Friends TV show host advocated dealing with some portion of the homeless population by giving them an “involuntary lethal injection, or something. Just kill them.” He later apologized, but his network received no threat from the FCC despite the inappropriateness of his remarks.
The case for being extremely alarmed is that erosion of free speech by the media is part of the Project 2025 plan, as written by the current FCC chair, who acknowledged that Project 2025 plan is being followed; selective government pressure on media outlets the administration deems unfriendly to its viewpoints through threats over government licensing will inevitably erode media freedom. On the other hand, the case for being less alarmed is that the Biden administration deployed similar pressures on private social media (although the claim that the White House limited free speech was ultimately dismissed by the Supreme Court because of lack of standing, although with some bitter dissents), and so this case does not display radically new government capabilities. At the same time, that tu quoque line of argument is itself conducive to a degradation of norms.
A presidential “proclamation”—so, not an executive order—requires companies sponsoring new H1B visas to pay a $100K fee. It’s unclear whether this will be operationalized as a yearly or a one-off fee. In the absence of an exemption, one downstream consequence would be that the US would probably recruit far fewer foreign doctors, leading to downstream effects for healthcare in the US. However, the courts may not allow the measure to stand.
On social media, Trump declared Antifa a “major terrorist organization”. This doesn’t have clear legal implications, as First Amendment protections apply to US domestic speech, and normally, declarations are about foreign terrorist groups. Moreover, Antifa is also not an official group, but rather a decentralized, informal movement. On the other hand, the Trump administration does control the Department of Justice and could direct investigations towards individuals that it suspects may support what it deems to be Antifa causes.
Also, on Truth Social, Trump asked Attorney General Pam Bondi to more actively prosecute some of his political enemies (commentary, more commentary).
AG Bondi also recently talked about going after “hate speech,” but shortly afterwards backed down after pushback from conservative voices.
Tens of thousands of people attended a memorial for Charlie Kirk in Arizona at which President Trump spoke.
And: The Trump administration cancelled an annual US hunger survey used to evaluate and prioritize food assistance. The CDC is in turmoil regarding vaccine recommendations..
Our overall recommendations depend on your particulars and risk profile. But, for instance, a left-of-center European entrepreneur might want to think for longer about whether to move to the US to start a startup, because although the financial climate remains better in the US than in Europe, the political climate has worsened. Or, for another example, it remains a good idea for readers concerned about tail risks to consider getting a residency permit, or a passport, in countries such as Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Uruguay, etc., in case the political climate in the US becomes more turbulent. At the same time, the costs of emigration are high, because it means leaving one’s family, friends and professional network behind.
The Rest of the Americas
The US struck a third Venezuelan boat in international waters. US Special Operations forces are reportedly in the Caribbean, and a fourth US destroyer has entered the Caribbean. Most US military ships and F-35s remained concentrated around Puerto Rico as of September 19. The White House is reportedly circulating a draft bill that would authorize the president to kill alleged narco-terrorists and wage war in countries allegedly harboring narco-terrorists. News that Maduro offered direct US talks in a letter dated September 6, seeking to avoid direct conflict, and that strikes on boats in the Caribbean started afterwards, have fueled speculation over US goals for Venezuela.
Forecasters didn’t reach consensus on whether Maduro will still be president by the end of the year, with an aggregate forecast of 88%. Individual forecasts were one at 30%, a “probably not,” and otherwise, four high-conviction “yes” forecasts (90%, 92%, 95%, 96%). Forecasters also disagreed about whether US troops would be reported on the ground in Venezuela by the end of the year, with an aggregate of 11% composed of four confident “no”s (3%, 7%, 8%) and one higher 55% forecast.
One forecaster summarizes the case for yes: Attempting to topple Maduro through military means and failing would look disastrous for Trump. The Venezuelan opposition does not appear coordinated enough to stage a successful coup. The base rate of leaders who have been in power more than a decade managing to hold onto power is extremely high (as an example, talks about the overthrow of the Ayatollah have quieted, and Castro died a very old man). It is not in Trump’s nature or in line with what he has sold to his base to get involved in a ground war.
On the other hand, another forecaster’s case for no is: the Trump administration has said that it does not recognize Maduro as the legitimate leader of Venezuela, reducing cocaine trafficking from South America would not likely involve Navy assets and F-35s in the Caribbean, and the assembled US military assets in the region appear to be intended for surgical strikes. With Special Ops forces also in the region, the groundwork for some operation in Venezuela is likely being laid. Whether Trump gives the go-ahead and whether a US operation could succeed in toppling Maduro are separate questions, but it looks likely that the US might try to coordinate with Venezuelan opposition groups to facilitate regime change.
Forecasters thought it more likely that the US military would strike Venezuelan soil in 2025, with an estimate of 39% (10%, 36%, 40%, 52%, 70%), but note that the bulk of their probability is on drug-related busts, not on regime change.
Middle East and Asia
Pakistan-Saudi Arabia agreement
Pakistan signed a defence pact with Saudi Arabia, in which the two countries vowed to defend each other in the event of an attack. Pakistan’s Defence Minister also indicated that Saudi Arabia would benefit from Pakistan’s nuclear program and may even fall under Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella, stating “What we have, and the capabilities we possess, will be made available to [Saudi Arabia] according to this agreement.”
Pakistan has historically positioned itself as a defender of Saudi Arabia, so some argue that this is merely a formalisation of existing arrangements. However, the agreement could deter attacks on Pakistan and Saudi Arabia from nuclear powers such as India and Israel (who recently attacked Pakistan and Qatar, respectively). Pakistan’s defence minister explicitly stated that the Saudis would be obligated to intervene in the event of an Indian attack. As it is a defensive pact, it probably wouldn’t have altered Pakistan’s 2015 decision to refuse a Saudi request to participate in airstrikes on Yemen.
Lebanon and Syria
Syria and Israel may reach a border deal within days.
Iran
Israel struck Yemen's Hodeidah Port over 10 times after a Houthi attack on an Israeli airport, claiming it was used by the Houthis for weapons transfers from Iran.
Israel and Gaza
Israel continued its full assault on Gaza City. Gaza was hit by a telecoms blackout. More than 10% of Gaza’s population has been killed or injured, said a former Israeli military chief.
Meanwhile, the Israeli finance minister discussed plans to turn Gaza into a “real estate bonanza” after the war. And the Trump administration is planning a $6.4B weapons sale to Israel, focused on attack helicopters.
Indian subcontinent
India and Pakistan met on the cricket field for the first time since the two countries engaged in hostilities in May. But, the “cricket diplomacy” didn’t pay off, with India’s team refusing to shake hands with their Pakistani counterparts after the match ended.
18 members of the Pakistani security forces were killed this week. Pakistan suspects Afghanistan-backed terrorists. Pakistan has been hit hard with flooding and extreme rainfall this monsoon season.
India’s PM Modi visited Manipur, a state plagued by tribal warfare that seems to have recently abated. In the short visit, he announced $1B worth of investment projects. Critics describe the visit as just optics.
Asia-Pacific
North Korea's Kim Jong Un oversaw a drone test and approved a plan to further strengthen the capabilities of unmanned aerial vehicles with AI.
The Trump administration reportedly paused a $400M package of military aid to Taiwan, which would have been significantly more lethal than previous rounds and included autonomous drones. At the same time, the administration has been more comfortable with weapons sales to Taiwan. The administration, with Congress’s permission, is able to send up to $1B in military aid to the island nation every year, but Taiwan is still waiting on billions of dollars worth of equipment, including fighter jets and anti-ship missiles, from previous purchases and aid packages.
Africa
Sudan is currently experiencing the world's largest displacement crisis, with over 30.4 million people requiring assistance. The crisis has resulted in alarming rates of malnutrition. An RSF rebel drone strike at a mosque in a displaced persons camp in Darfur killed several dozen people. Over 110 Sudanese refugees have died or are missing after one boat capsized and another caught fire off the coast of Libya. Resolving conflict inside Sudan could end up solidifying the rule of a military junta, or pave the way for more democratic rule.
Economy
In the US, the Fed lowered interest rates by 0.25%, in line with expectations.
In signs of economic risks: The Shiller PE ratio is at 39.95, the highest since the dotcom bubble (however, the S&P 500 PE ratio is not near comparable highs.) Google searches for “help with mortgage” passed levels seen in the 2008 housing crisis. US farm income for 2025 is forecasted to be the most negative in inflation-adjusted dollars since 1952.
In the UK, inflation was 3.8% in August, driven by increases in food prices, and was higher than inflation in the Euro zone or in the US. The UK government borrowed more than expected in the first five months of the fiscal year. “Economists said the deterioration in the public finances meant it was almost certain that Reeves would be forced to raise taxes again in November.”
Artificial Intelligence
Over 200 prominent figures, over 70 organizations, 8 former heads of state and ministers and 10 Nobel laureates and recipients have signed a “call for international red lines to prevent unacceptable AI risks” that was presented at the UN General Assembly meeting in New York today.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said he believes there’s a 25% chance that “things go really, really badly” with AI, when asked for his p(doom). Characterizing himself as an optimist, he also said there’s a 75% chance that things go “really, really well,” with not much in between. He had previously been on the record saying he thought the chance that something goes “really quite catastrophically wrong on the scale of human civilization” was somewhere between 10 and 25%.
Scientists have used open-source biological foundation AI models to generate simple, variant bacteriophage viral genomes, and then synthesized them to produce bacteriophages that killed bacteria. The AIs were trained on 15K genomes in a family of viruses and came up with genomes that were roughly similar to one well-studied virus but that nonetheless differed substantially from it, surpassing what could be done with random-mutagenesis lab experiments. The method eliminated the need to do a vast number of lab experiments, and it enriched for desired traits. This is a positive proof-of-principle application of AI capabilities, but this same ability to write viral genomes, or parts of genomes, also poses significant risk in the wrong hands, especially as such capabilities grow over time.
OpenAI and Apollo Research published research finding that frontier AIs exhibit behavior consistent with scheming. They also tested a new method to significantly reduce a model’s tendency to engage in scheming behavior, which seemed to work. The researchers also found that AI’s propensity to scheme was affected by its situational awareness — whether it could tell it was being tested. When it could tell it was being tested, it schemed less.
The researchers warned that their methods are dependent on access to AI chains of thought, and they urged AI developers to preserve this access so that scheming can be further studied and mitigated.
Security researchers discovered a now-patched vulnerability that could have enabled attackers to use ChatGPT to steal sensitive data from users’ Gmail accounts.
The hunger strikers outside Anthropic and Google DeepMind offices, together with one livestreaming in India, are still striking.
OpenAI announced Stargate UK, a major AI infrastructure project in the UK. Separately, Microsoft announced $30 billion in UK AI investments. The rationale for these projects isn’t obvious, given the UK’s electricity prices. However, investments of this scale may also yield political influence.
Microsoft also announced plans for a $4 billion datacenter in Wisconsin, its second in the state.
China is reportedly urging Chinese companies not to use Nvidia AI chips, which Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is disappointed about.
A Google DeepMind AI got a gold medal in another elite programming competition.
OpenAI is hiring robotics researchers.
White House officials are reportedly frustrated with the limits Anthropic are placing on the use of their AIs by law enforcement.
SoftBank and OpenAI’s joint venture in Japan is facing delays.
AI psychosis and suicide
The Washington Post reports on the case of a 13-year-old girl, Juliana Peralta, who died by suicide in association with a Character AI chatbot “Hero” in 2023. Peralta, and another teen who died by suicide in association with this same chatbot in 2024, reportedly both wrote the same strange phase in their diaries over and over.
According to a police report cited by the lawsuit, the phrase seems to refer to the idea of shifting consciousness "from their current reality... to their desired reality."
Parents of teens who died by suicide in association with AI testified before the US Senate Subcommittee on Crime and Counterterrorism on Tuesday.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced new measures OpenAI will be taking to try to address problems like this. These include age prediction and parental controls.
The FTC announced an inquiry into 7 companies seeking information about how they develop AI companions: Google, Instagram, Meta, OpenAI, Snap, X, and Character Technologies.
Italy has passed legislation regulating AI, including prison terms for those who misuse the technology.
Other technology
A suspected cyberattack grounded flights at London’s Heathrow Airport and also caused disruption at airports in Brussels and Berlin. Electronic customer check-in and baggage drop services, running on Collins Aerospace software, appear to have been affected.
On Sunday, Trump said that Larry Ellison, Michael Dell, and Lachlan and Rupert Murdoch (negotiating on behalf of Fox Corp.) would likely be involved in a TikTok deal. Previously, the Trump administration had said that Ellison’s company, Oracle, Silver Lake and Andreessen Horowitz would be involved. The investors are likely to pay the US government a “multibillion dollar fee” in exchange for the ability to negotiate the agreement with China.
Meanwhile, the Ellison family has been increasing its position in media companies for the last few decades, since Larry Ellison’s son David started a successful production company, Skydance. Skydance merged with Paramount, which owned CBS, and is now considering acquiring Warner Bros, which owns CNN and HBO. Together with Ellison’s stake in TikTok, this would concentrate a major share of media power in one family.
Nvidia bought a 4% stake in Intel, sending Intel’s stock price from ~$23-25 per share to ~$30.
A NATO country is buying air-defense lasers from an Australian company, Electro Optic Systems, which the company claims are able to shoot down 20 drones per minute at a cost of less than $0.10 per shot. Israel’s planned Iron Beam defense laser will have comparable power.
Biorisks
DR Congo has begun Ebola vaccinations for those most at risk in the country’s new Ebola virus disease outbreak.
Chagas disease may be becoming endemic in the US. It causes acute and chronic illnesses and is typically fatal in <5% of cases. The disease is caused by Trypanosoma cruzi parasites in triatomine or "kissing bugs," which spread the disease to animals through bites, often on the face. The insect has been reported in 32 states in the US. About 8M people around the world and about 280K people in the US have the disease, which is often undiagnosed. There is no vaccine for Chagas disease, but antiparasitic medications are typically used in the treatment of the disease.
A review article finds that people on average consume between 39,000 and 52,000 microplastic particles per year, and people who drink bottled water consume 90,000 more particles per year than do people who drink tap water.
Climate and Nature
A new study warns that groundwater is disappearing, as underground aquifers that took millions of years to fill and would take thousands of years to refill are being pumped dry around the world. After that water is pumped to the surface and used, much of it then flows into the oceans, and that loss of water from the continents has become a leading cause of sea-level rise. Meanwhile, land on Earth is becoming drier.
🟡 nice touch