"Looking at 2026, forecasters estimate that there is a 5.1% (3% to 7%) chance that the WHO will declare any new pandemic in 2026, not deviating very far from the historical baserate."
Since Evo 2 was released in February 2025, and other models now for the first time in history can significantly enhance the capabilities of potential bioterrorists, why continue relying so heavily on historical base rates?
Would it have made sense to stick closely to historical base rates for WMDs after Trinity?
"They believe there’s a 14% (8% to 25%) chance that there will be a military conflict or incident between Russia and an EU country that results in more than 10 fatalities"
"Looking at 2026, forecasters estimate that there is a 5.1% (3% to 7%) chance that the WHO will declare any new pandemic in 2026, not deviating very far from the historical baserate."
Since Evo 2 was released in February 2025, and other models now for the first time in history can significantly enhance the capabilities of potential bioterrorists, why continue relying so heavily on historical base rates?
Would it have made sense to stick closely to historical base rates for WMDs after Trinity?
Thanks for the update!
"They believe there’s a 14% (8% to 25%) chance that there will be a military conflict or incident between Russia and an EU country that results in more than 10 fatalities"
By which date?
By the end of 2026 - updated the post!