I think this was published before Trump's press conference in which he said the war would end "very soon". How much does that affect your predictions on oil prices and such?
It does not affect my predictions. Trump also said "no" when asked if the war would be over in a week. So it depends on what your definition of "very soon" is. It seems unlikely to me that the US will conclude its military operations against Iran within a couple weeks, especially as the US is bringing more THAADs from South Korea, and another aircraft carrier is expected to arrive in the Middle East next week (https://www.defencetoday.com/global-security/flashpoints/uss-george-h-w-bush-carrier-strike-group-to-deploy-to-middle-east/ ). It's not impossible that US military operations could be completed within a couple weeks, but it seems unlikely.
And as long as the US is continuing military operations against Iran, Iran will try to constrain shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. While their missile capabilities are enormously degraded and there have been no strikes on ships for 3 days now, they can use drones, and they are also now reportedly laying mines in the strait. US Navy escorts won't start for a while, at least not until missile strikes are highly unlikely. A $20B US reinsurance fund isn't likely to tempt many shipowners to send their ships through; they want safety. So it really isn't clear how the strait will be opened while US military operations against Iran continue, except perhaps near the end.
And the longer the strait stays largely closed, the harder it will be to contain oil prices. The market started to panic early Monday but climbed down after G7 finance ministers discussed releasing oil from strategic petroleum reserves, and that possibility or reality might be enough to keep a lid on oil prices for a while. But the longer the strait is closed, the greater the risk. Famed oil historian Daniel Yergin writes, "We are looking at what is by far the biggest disruption in world history in terms of daily oil production…. If it goes on for weeks, it will reverberate across the global economy." And Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned today on an earnings call that, "There would be catastrophic consequences for the world's oil markets, and the longer the disruption goes on, ... the more drastic the consequences for the global economy. ... While we have faced disruptions in the past, this one by far is the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has faced" (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/consequences-global-oil-markets-could-be-catastrophic-if-hormuz-closure-2026-03-10/ ).
So, no, Trump's comment doesn't move the dial for me. Some things that would lower my predictions include 1) seeing a sustained period (1 or 2 weeks?) without Iranian attacks on ships, 2) seeing US Navy escorts of commercial shipping through the strait, 3) seeing G7 nations coordinate release of oil from their strategic reserves, 4) seeing a high probability that US operations will draw to a close within a week, 5) seeing statements from Iran that they will cease to target commercial shipping through the strait, 6) seeing shipping starting to return to normal, and 7) seeing a serious increase in transport via pipeline to other ports away from the Gulf, which will soon likely happen.
However, additional problems that could raise prices to some extent include 1) shutting down production in Gulf states, which has happened, because restarting can take 6 weeks, 2) targeted strikes against Gulf energy infrastructure, which Iran has warned that it will do further, 3) extensive mine placement in the strait, which can take time to clear, and 4) loss of centralized control of the military within Iran, beyond the intentional decentralization in place now, leading to some independent faction conducting strikes on shipping through the strait.
I think it's important to focus on the fundamentals here: 1) US military operations won't be wrapped up within a week, and it's not clear whether they'll go on for 2, 3, or 4 more weeks -- or 6 months, 2) the strait will likely remain closed during most, if not all, of US military operations against Iran, 3) even a few weeks of closure will have large consequences for oil markets and the global economy, and a longer closure could be way worse, and 4) longer military operations will likely result in longer-lasting reductions in oil production and hence oil exports from the Gulf as well.
While Trump often lies, quitting early is in line with Trump's personality and his earlier behavior. Israel may well continue, of course. Trump also changes his mind often, so ordering more supplies makes sense regardless.
I see his comments as intended to calm markets by trying to signal that he doesn't intend the operation go on for months. They also indicate that the operation will likely continue for at least one week. Beyond that, we can look at other clues about the war, oil production, oil exports by other means, oil supplies, and events in the strait itself. Also, it should be noted that the administration initially said they expected the operation to take around 4-5 weeks, so his statements yesterday are not inconsistent with those earlier statements.
How would you update in general based on his speech? Does it have any significant weight at all, since it all sounded a bit like "we can already claim a victory" as well as goalpost-moving?
I think this was published before Trump's press conference in which he said the war would end "very soon". How much does that affect your predictions on oil prices and such?
It does not affect my predictions. Trump also said "no" when asked if the war would be over in a week. So it depends on what your definition of "very soon" is. It seems unlikely to me that the US will conclude its military operations against Iran within a couple weeks, especially as the US is bringing more THAADs from South Korea, and another aircraft carrier is expected to arrive in the Middle East next week (https://www.defencetoday.com/global-security/flashpoints/uss-george-h-w-bush-carrier-strike-group-to-deploy-to-middle-east/ ). It's not impossible that US military operations could be completed within a couple weeks, but it seems unlikely.
And as long as the US is continuing military operations against Iran, Iran will try to constrain shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. While their missile capabilities are enormously degraded and there have been no strikes on ships for 3 days now, they can use drones, and they are also now reportedly laying mines in the strait. US Navy escorts won't start for a while, at least not until missile strikes are highly unlikely. A $20B US reinsurance fund isn't likely to tempt many shipowners to send their ships through; they want safety. So it really isn't clear how the strait will be opened while US military operations against Iran continue, except perhaps near the end.
And the longer the strait stays largely closed, the harder it will be to contain oil prices. The market started to panic early Monday but climbed down after G7 finance ministers discussed releasing oil from strategic petroleum reserves, and that possibility or reality might be enough to keep a lid on oil prices for a while. But the longer the strait is closed, the greater the risk. Famed oil historian Daniel Yergin writes, "We are looking at what is by far the biggest disruption in world history in terms of daily oil production…. If it goes on for weeks, it will reverberate across the global economy." And Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned today on an earnings call that, "There would be catastrophic consequences for the world's oil markets, and the longer the disruption goes on, ... the more drastic the consequences for the global economy. ... While we have faced disruptions in the past, this one by far is the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has faced" (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/consequences-global-oil-markets-could-be-catastrophic-if-hormuz-closure-2026-03-10/ ).
So, no, Trump's comment doesn't move the dial for me. Some things that would lower my predictions include 1) seeing a sustained period (1 or 2 weeks?) without Iranian attacks on ships, 2) seeing US Navy escorts of commercial shipping through the strait, 3) seeing G7 nations coordinate release of oil from their strategic reserves, 4) seeing a high probability that US operations will draw to a close within a week, 5) seeing statements from Iran that they will cease to target commercial shipping through the strait, 6) seeing shipping starting to return to normal, and 7) seeing a serious increase in transport via pipeline to other ports away from the Gulf, which will soon likely happen.
However, additional problems that could raise prices to some extent include 1) shutting down production in Gulf states, which has happened, because restarting can take 6 weeks, 2) targeted strikes against Gulf energy infrastructure, which Iran has warned that it will do further, 3) extensive mine placement in the strait, which can take time to clear, and 4) loss of centralized control of the military within Iran, beyond the intentional decentralization in place now, leading to some independent faction conducting strikes on shipping through the strait.
I think it's important to focus on the fundamentals here: 1) US military operations won't be wrapped up within a week, and it's not clear whether they'll go on for 2, 3, or 4 more weeks -- or 6 months, 2) the strait will likely remain closed during most, if not all, of US military operations against Iran, 3) even a few weeks of closure will have large consequences for oil markets and the global economy, and a longer closure could be way worse, and 4) longer military operations will likely result in longer-lasting reductions in oil production and hence oil exports from the Gulf as well.
While Trump often lies, quitting early is in line with Trump's personality and his earlier behavior. Israel may well continue, of course. Trump also changes his mind often, so ordering more supplies makes sense regardless.
I see his comments as intended to calm markets by trying to signal that he doesn't intend the operation go on for months. They also indicate that the operation will likely continue for at least one week. Beyond that, we can look at other clues about the war, oil production, oil exports by other means, oil supplies, and events in the strait itself. Also, it should be noted that the administration initially said they expected the operation to take around 4-5 weeks, so his statements yesterday are not inconsistent with those earlier statements.
Very much so! Found it surprising!
How would you update in general based on his speech? Does it have any significant weight at all, since it all sounded a bit like "we can already claim a victory" as well as goalpost-moving?