The 47% on Hormuz feels a little high to me, mostly because of the threshold. A deal or reopening headline is one thing; getting the 7-day MA back to 52 transits by July 1 is another. Even if the Strait reopens cleanly, rerouted tankers, potential de-mining, war-risk insurance, and charter reshuffling won’t unwind overnight.
"What will be the number of jobs in transportation and warehousing in the United States in 2026, according to FRED? Our forecasters’ aggregate 90% confidence interval is 5.87M to 6.66M"
Nitpick. "December 2026", not "2026". You may also want to add "from a current level of 6.58M".
The 47% on Hormuz feels a little high to me, mostly because of the threshold. A deal or reopening headline is one thing; getting the 7-day MA back to 52 transits by July 1 is another. Even if the Strait reopens cleanly, rerouted tankers, potential de-mining, war-risk insurance, and charter reshuffling won’t unwind overnight.
Hello.
"What will be the number of jobs in transportation and warehousing in the United States in 2026, according to FRED? Our forecasters’ aggregate 90% confidence interval is 5.87M to 6.66M"
Nitpick. "December 2026", not "2026". You may also want to add "from a current level of 6.58M".
thx