The odds for Trump refusing to abide the court is assuming there is no existential catastrophe… do we foresee an existential catastrophe occuring? Or is this a caveat you apply to all odds?
It's a caveat that makes it much easier to forecast, but also to compare forecasters who have divergent views on the likelihood of a catastrophe (some are quite doomy)
The chart of disabilities gets steeper after COVID but it was already climbing a lot since 2010. I think it’s more likely social/technological phenomenon than an epidemiological one.
Looking at the methodology below, the question about difficulty concentrating could be getting tons of hits.
Methodology:
How are people with disabilities identified in the CPS?
The CPS uses a set of six questions to identify persons with disabilities. A response of “yes” to any one of the questions indicates that the person in question has a disability. The disability questions appear in the CPS in the following format:
This month we want to learn about people who have physical, mental, or emotional conditions that cause serious difficulty with their daily activities. Please answer for household members who are 15 years old or over.
Is anyone deaf or does anyone have serious difficulty hearing?
Is anyone blind or does anyone have serious difficulty seeing even when wearing glasses?
Because of a physical, mental, or emotional condition, does anyone have serious difficulty concentrating, remembering, or making decisions?
Does anyone have serious difficulty walking or climbing stairs?
Does anyone have difficulty dressing or bathing?
Because of a physical, mental, or emotional condition, does anyone have difficulty doing errands alone such as visiting a doctor’s office or shopping?
The odds for Trump refusing to abide the court is assuming there is no existential catastrophe… do we foresee an existential catastrophe occuring? Or is this a caveat you apply to all odds?
It's a caveat that makes it much easier to forecast, but also to compare forecasters who have divergent views on the likelihood of a catastrophe (some are quite doomy)
The chart of disabilities gets steeper after COVID but it was already climbing a lot since 2010. I think it’s more likely social/technological phenomenon than an epidemiological one.
Looking at the methodology below, the question about difficulty concentrating could be getting tons of hits.
Methodology:
How are people with disabilities identified in the CPS?
The CPS uses a set of six questions to identify persons with disabilities. A response of “yes” to any one of the questions indicates that the person in question has a disability. The disability questions appear in the CPS in the following format:
This month we want to learn about people who have physical, mental, or emotional conditions that cause serious difficulty with their daily activities. Please answer for household members who are 15 years old or over.
Is anyone deaf or does anyone have serious difficulty hearing?
Is anyone blind or does anyone have serious difficulty seeing even when wearing glasses?
Because of a physical, mental, or emotional condition, does anyone have serious difficulty concentrating, remembering, or making decisions?
Does anyone have serious difficulty walking or climbing stairs?
Does anyone have difficulty dressing or bathing?
Because of a physical, mental, or emotional condition, does anyone have difficulty doing errands alone such as visiting a doctor’s office or shopping?
Look at this chart: https://archive.is/e1sUL#:~:text=Fijan%20told%20me-,.
ONLY 72%??? It’s so over
This is a mixture, most forecasters are pretty certain and one is not.