> Our forecasters gave an aggregate of 13% (range 2.5% to 30%) to Russia invading at least one of the Baltic States by 2030.
> On whether Ukraine will join the EU by 2030, forecasters gave a 10% (range: 5% to 25%)
Fairly surprised by how high both of those are, would be interested in learning more here.
1) Even with a weakened NATO, it seems that attacking a Baltic State would ~guarantee European countries entering the war?
2) And joining the EU spontaneously seems to require a miracle (AI?) in reconstruction, besides of course the war ending and regaining full control over claimed territory.
Like, European countries could enter the war, but does that mean further military support or does that mean that Germany sends its kids to die? Article 5 is ambiguous here:
> The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
On Ukraine joining the EU, yes, this would never happen in time with the current process, but the current process could be changed or abridged due to special circumstances.
- I'm spontaneously like 85% sure that Germany would send troops if Russia attacked a Baltic state unprovoked (conditional on sending troops being high leverage), and 90% for Poland? Why not higher? Dunno, sth sth nuclear threats? Sth sth US-China war changing everything?
- If Ukraine would never be able to join the EU under current process by 2030, I am really doubtful the EU would be able to agree to act as a "Samaritan" and take on an economically devastated country that will come with painful financial obligations, when the EU is already struggling.
> Our forecasters gave an aggregate of 13% (range 2.5% to 30%) to Russia invading at least one of the Baltic States by 2030.
> On whether Ukraine will join the EU by 2030, forecasters gave a 10% (range: 5% to 25%)
Fairly surprised by how high both of those are, would be interested in learning more here.
1) Even with a weakened NATO, it seems that attacking a Baltic State would ~guarantee European countries entering the war?
2) And joining the EU spontaneously seems to require a miracle (AI?) in reconstruction, besides of course the war ending and regaining full control over claimed territory.
Good points, on the other hand:
- Inferences are uncertain
- Shit happens
- There is still time
Like, European countries could enter the war, but does that mean further military support or does that mean that Germany sends its kids to die? Article 5 is ambiguous here:
> The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
On Ukraine joining the EU, yes, this would never happen in time with the current process, but the current process could be changed or abridged due to special circumstances.
Thanks for the response, interesting... hmmm:
- I'm spontaneously like 85% sure that Germany would send troops if Russia attacked a Baltic state unprovoked (conditional on sending troops being high leverage), and 90% for Poland? Why not higher? Dunno, sth sth nuclear threats? Sth sth US-China war changing everything?
- If Ukraine would never be able to join the EU under current process by 2030, I am really doubtful the EU would be able to agree to act as a "Samaritan" and take on an economically devastated country that will come with painful financial obligations, when the EU is already struggling.
"The CFPB’s purvey has been described as..."
I believe you meant the noun "purview". "Purvey" is a verb with an unrelated meaning.
Thanks, fixing