"However, they assigned a 36% probability (range: 20%-50%) to there being at least 10 deaths as a result of violent demonstrations conditional on the Associated Press declaring Trump’s opponent the victor."
It seems like a probability of the inverse (10 deaths condition on AP declaring Trump the victor) would also have been a helpful thing to model.
"However, they assigned a 36% probability (range: 20%-50%) to there being at least 10 deaths as a result of violent demonstrations conditional on the Associated Press declaring Trump’s opponent the victor."
It seems like a probability of the inverse (10 deaths condition on AP declaring Trump the victor) would also have been a helpful thing to model.