Trump sent the National Guard to Los Angeles, Russia intensified conventional attacks on Ukraine, US-Iran nuclear talks continue | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #23/2025

Executive summary

Trump federalized National Guard troops and ordered them to be deployed to Los Angeles amid anti-deportation protests, against the California governor’s wishes. Federal officials are calling the protests an insurrection, setting the stage for the possibility that the Insurrection Act may be invoked, which would allow the military to be used for law enforcement within the US. Forecasters estimate that there is a 40% (range: 25% to 65%) chance that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act in the next two months.

Our forecasting team updated their estimates of the probability that Russia would use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine by July 1st. Last week we forecasted a 0.4% chance for this possibility; we now estimate a ~0.04% chance (range: 0.02% to 0.1%). Forecasters mentioned they thought the risk here has gone back down to the base rate because Russia doesn’t yet have its back against the wall, and its initial response to Ukraine’s drones was heavier aerial bombardment. Putin doesn’t want to alienate allies like China and India, the time horizon is short, and Putin is slowly making gains on the frontlines—with some complications; he can hope for gains throughout the summer.

Elon Musk and President Trump fell out. This could shake up American politics, and the direction the US takes on AI if rumors of a purge of Silicon Valley members of the administration pan out.

Forecasters estimated the probability that Elon Musk would significantly back a third party in the midterm elections to be 27% (range: 10% to 50%). This would involve committing significant sums of money (>$100M), making public endorsements comparable to those he made during the 2024 Presidential campaign, or even setting up a third party himself.

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Geopolitics

United States

National Guard in California

After two days of protests against ICE’s immigration crackdown, Trump federalized at least 2,000 National Guard troops on Saturday against the wishes of California’s governor, and on Sunday, several hundred were deployed in the Los Angeles area. Unless the Insurrection Act were invoked, all the troops can legally do is protect federal buildings and personnel, not participate in law enforcement, and so their deployment is so far mostly a matter of optics.

Trump’s memo federalizing National Guard troops states that, “In addition, the Secretary of Defense may employ any other members of the regular Armed Forces as necessary to augment and support the protection of Federal functions and property in any number determined appropriate in his discretion.” Defense Secretary Hegseth twice raised the possibility on X of sending in the Marines to defend federal law enforcement agents, which would not likely require the Insurrection Act to be invoked but could position Marines for deployment if the Insurrection Act were to be invoked. The US Speaker of the House said, of the possibility of sending Marines into the streets of an American city, that, "We have to be prepared to do what is necessary."

VP Vance tweeted that, “Insurrectionists carrying foreign flags are attacking immigration enforcement officers”. Stephen Miller, the Homeland Security Advisor and the White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy, repeatedly called the protests in LA an insurrection. Conversely, California Governor Gavin Newsom described the National Guard deployment as “purposefully inflammatory” and said that it would “escalate tensions”. The LA mayor tweeted that, “Deploying federalized troops on the heels of these raids is a chaotic escalation.”

By framing the protests as an insurrection, the Trump administration has set the stage for the possibility that the Insurrection Act may be invoked. California Democratic Rep. Nanette Barragán has been told to expect 30 days of ICE enforcement in the state, and she said that the presence of the National Guard is “going to escalate the situation.”

On Sunday, thousands of protestors took to the streets in the LA area, with some throwing large, heavy objects and fireworks at California Highway Patrol officers and vehicles and setting several Waymo cars on fire, and law enforcement used tear gas, rubber bullets and flash bangs to control crowds at times. Newsom tweeted, “I have formally requested the Trump Administration rescind their unlawful deployment of troops in Los Angeles county and return them to my command. We didn’t have a problem until Trump got involved.” When speaking to reporters before boarding Air Force One to go to Camp David to meet with military leaders and others, Trump declined to rule out the possibility that the Insurrection Act would be invoked and later referred to the protesters as “insurrectionists” in two social media posts.

Trump also told reporters, “we’re going to have troops everywhere.” Trump’s memo federalizing National Guard troops does not mention California specifically and instead allows troops to be deployed “at locations where protests against these [federal] functions are occurring or are likely to occur based on current threat assessments and planned operations”.

CNN reported on Friday that the Trump administration is considering cutting a large amount of federal funding to California. In response, California’s governor tweeted that, “We pay over $80 BILLION more in taxes than we get back. Maybe it’s time to cut that off, @realDonaldTrump”.

Trump-Musk feud

President Trump and Elon Musk openly feuded on social media. After leaving his position in the White House last week, Musk continued to criticize the Trump administration’s budget, assailing the “mountain of disgusting pork” in the bill. He also took credit for getting Trump elected and wondered whether he should start a new political party. Trump then threatened to cancel government contracts to Musk’s companies and subsidies that benefit Musk’s companies; Tesla stock plummeted 14% on Thursday as a consequence but recovered some of its losses on Friday. Musk then claimed that Trump is in the Epstein files and called for his impeachment. Steve Bannon said that he thought the government should “seize” SpaceX and that Musk should be deported; these statements may have been part of a power play by Bannon to become an advisor to Trump once again. On Saturday, Trump said that he had no desire to mend his relationship with Musk.

Elon Musk has over the last decade consistently spoken out in favor of AI regulation, including the proposed legislation in California last year, SB-1047. On the one hand, his departure could plausibly shift the administration away from AI safety efforts. On the other hand, the FT suggests there could be a purge of Musk allies and Silicon Valley tech figures in the Trump administration. Some of these figures have much less of a track record of advocacy for safe AI, and Krishnan was the head of the London office of a16z, a company which has engaged in lobbying against regulations pertinent to AI safety.

Musk’s allies aligned with Trump fear several Silicon Valley figures who followed him into government could find their roles are in peril.

The sudden deselection of Jared Isaacman, a tech founder and friend of Musk’s who had been nominated to lead NASA, was the start of an expected “purge”, said one person close to the administration.

Among those considered to be at risk were crypto and artificial intelligence tsar David Sacks, policy adviser Sriram Krishnan, and Michael Grimes, Musk’s former banker at Morgan Stanley who is now an official at the Department of Commerce.

Forecasters estimated a 27% (10% to 50%) chance of Musk significantly backing a third party by the mid-terms: >$100M, not just donating to 1 or 2 third-party candidates. Polymarket is at 17% on a related question by the end of the year. Forecasters mentioned that to some extent it’s a question about whether Musk does so before crashing. On the one hand, he could also reconcile with Trump, or back pro-tech Democrats, but on the other hand, he could indeed build a party with Andrew Yang or other politicians looking for more relevance.

Kilmar Abrego García surprisingly brought back

On Friday, Kilmar Abrego Garcia was brought back to the US, and taken to court hours later to face criminal charges for allegedly transporting undocumented immigrants in the US, as part of what the Trump administration claimed was a large human smuggling ring.

Abrego Garcia had been deported to El Salvador without due process in March; a US federal judge and the US Supreme Court had ordered the Trump administration to facilitate his return to the US, but the Trump administration had been dragging its feet. President Bukele of El Salvador released Abrego to US custody after being presented with a US federal warrant for his arrest.

By bringing Abrego Garcia back to the US to face new charges, the Trump administration complies with court rulings and does not lose face in the way it would if it were to bring Abrego Garcia back for an ordinary due process hearing. Abrego Garcia had been one test case, now among many, for the Trump administration’s push to deport large numbers of alleged undocumented immigrants without due process.

Approximately one and a half months ago, forecasters assigned a 34% chance to Abrego Garcia returning to the US by June 17, so this comes as somewhat unexpected news. The threat model of the Trump administration overtly disobeying a Supreme Court decision is diffused, for now.

Other US

The Army is preparing to hold a parade in Washington, DC on June 14, the Army’s 250th anniversary and Trump’s 79th birthday. Large amounts of military equipment and personnel are being transported to DC, including 6,700 troops, 28 M1A1 Abrams tanks, 28 M2 Bradley Fighting Vehicles, 4 Paladin Howitzers, 8 CH-47 Chinook helicopters, 16 AH-64 Apache helicopters, and 16 UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters. Protests against the Trump administration are also planned throughout the country on June 14.

The Trump administration banned entry into the US by citizens of 12 countries and placed restrictions on travel to the US by citizens of an additional 7 countries. The travel restrictions went into effect on June 9. The administration also asked Congress to take back funding for foreign aid, PBS and NPR, and placed a 22-year-old recent college graduate in charge of the DHS Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships, which works to prevent terrorism in the US.

Last Wednesday, a federal judge ruled that the Trump administration’s deportations of Venezuelan men to El Salvador in March under the Alien Enemies Act were illegal but did not – “at least yet” – order the administration to bring them back. The judge ruled that the deported men can pursue court cases in the US to challenge their deportations and gave the administration a week to come up with a plan to facilitate their filing cases.

The Supreme Court ruled that DOGE could have access to Social Security computer systems that contain sensitive data on millions of Americans.

Europe

NATO defense ministers agreed to increase ground-based air defenses and land forces and to increase their military capability targets by 30%, in advance of the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague later this month.

The UK plans to purchase US F-35A fighter jets capable of launching US tactical nuclear weapons, to increase the UK’s and NATO’s nuclear deterrent against Russia.

Along Sweden’s southeast coast, 30 communications towers were damaged in acts of sabotage.

Ukraine

Russia has intensified drone and missile attacks across Ukraine, particularly on Kyiv and Kharkiv. Peace talks are currently at a dead end. Trump stated that, “it might be better to let Ukraine and Russia ‘fight for awhile’”, having grown frustrated with the lack of progress towards peace.

Following Ukraine’s drone attack on nuclear-capable aircraft in Russia, the Kremlin and some of Trump’s own advisers have been claiming that the risk of nuclear war is now elevated, in an attempt to get him to reduce support for Ukraine. Last week, we forecasted that there was a 0.4% chance that Russia will use a tactical nuclear weapon before July 1, 2025. As Russia did not launch a nuclear weapon in the immediate aftermath of Ukraine’s drone strike, our current forecasts have fallen to 0.04% (range: 0.02% to 0.1%).

Meanwhile, the United States is reportedly unwilling to provide air cover to any European troops that would be stationed in Ukraine as part of a “Coalition of the Willing”. British and French officials previously said that a “US backstop” would be required before they could send troops to strategic locations such as cities, ports and energy sites in an effort to provide security guarantees to Ukraine following the conclusion of a peace agreement.

However, European officials are still hopeful that the US will share intelligence with their forces and that the US would ultimately intervene if their forces were attacked by Russia. Following multiple rounds of military planning, they have in any case concluded that a US backstop is no longer required for a reassurance force to be sent to Ukraine, with European and Ukrainian troops, aircraft stationed on NATO’s eastern flank, and patrols in the Black Sea deemed sufficient. Nevertheless, they are not planning to send such a force until a peace agreement is reached, so the plans will be put on hold for now. In late March, forecasters assigned a 4% chance (range: 2% to 10% chance) to a military conflict between Russia and the UK and/or France that results in at least 10 fatalities before the end of 2025.

A pro-Ukrainian Twitter account pointed out that Yandex, which is much like Google in Russia, has blurred multiple locations on Moscow satellite map views and may thereby have revealed the locations of military, defense industry and other sensitive facilities.

Greenland

The Trump administration plans to move Greenland from the purview of the US European Command in Stuttgart, Germany, to that of the US Northern Command, and hence to treat the territory militarily more like Canada than a part of Europe. One military commentator sees this step as "a ‘legal’ & operational precursor to seizing the island.”

Denmark plans to increase its military presence in the Arctic, including in Greenland. President Macron of France is to visit Greenland with Danish Prime Minister Mette Fredericksen. This is a show of unity and strength in response to Trump’s overtures to take the island.

Middle East

Negotiations between Iran and the US over Iran’s nuclear program continue to drag on. The US reportedly offered Iran the option of continuing to enrich uranium to 3% as necessary for civilian purposes, while negotiations continue; Iran is reviewing the US proposal. Israeli officials have reportedly told Washington that Israel would not attack Iranian nuclear facilities as long as US negotiations with Iran don't fail. One official stated that:

We calmed the Americans and told them there is no logic in launching an attack if a good diplomatic solution can be found. This is why we are going to give it a chance and wait with any military action until it is clear that negotiations were exhausted and [White House envoy] Steve Witkoff has given up.

Two weeks ago, forecasters estimated a 22% chance of a US and/or Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites by the end of August. Last week, they assigned a 34% probability to this happening by the end of 2025.

The US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution that demanded a Gaza ceasefire and immediate access to basic services for civilians, among other items.

Israel struck Syria after projectiles were fired from Syria, and held the Syrian interim President Al-Sharaa responsible.

Asia

Admiral Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, said that, “China is on a dangerous course,” and that the country’s “aggressive manoeuvres around Taiwan are not just exercises. They are rehearsals.”

Africa

The Russia-backed Wagner Group announced that their troops are leaving Mali, claiming “mission accomplished” after fighting insurgents in the country — and suffering heavy losses. Russia’s state-controlled Africa Corps announced on their Telegram channel that their forces would remain in Mali. Russia continues to maintain its military influence in parts of Africa through the Africa Corps.

Economy

The OECD cut its growth forecasts for the global and US economies. The global GDP is forecast to grow by 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026, and the US GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026.

Trump raised tariffs on nearly all steel and aluminum imports to 50% on Wednesday. If the tariffs continue, a variety of goods are expected to become more expensive in the US.

Ocean shipping volumes have nearly returned to levels seen before US tariffs were announced on April 2. Ocean container shipping rates (mid-high average spot rates) paid by shippers in the 75th percentile of the market for transit from the Far East to the US West and East Coasts have surged by 194% and 88%, respectively, since May 2, as shippers scramble to take advantage of the temporary pause in US-China reciprocal tariffs. Ocean shipping rates between other locations have increased as well. Shipping rates are expected to peak in June and then fall to more typical levels.

Many Western manufacturing companies are extremely concerned about China’s export controls on rare earth metals. Rare earth magnets, in particular, are used in cars, cell phones, missiles and other electronics. Automakers are already hurting worldwide, and an auto industry news organization has warned that the shortage could have a larger impact than chip shortages during the first years of the Covid pandemic. China has signaled for the past 15 years that it could roil supply chains by throttling rare earth supplies, if needed, by instituting an export control regime modeled on US export controls and sanctions that the country has perceived as aiming to hold back its economic growth. However, while it appears unlikely that China will rescind its new export control system, there are signs that the country may start to approve export licenses more quickly, including for export to EU companies. China has approved temporary export licenses for suppliers of rare earths to three US automakers as well, amid trade discussions with the US. Several automakers have been considering moving the manufacture of parts containing rare earth magnets to China to get around Chinese export controls.

Chinese airlines are considering ordering hundreds of jets from Airbus, a European company. While the CEO of Boeing, a US company, said that the company will resume deliveries of its aircraft to Chinese airlines this month, it is possible that the trade war will shift some future purchases by Chinese airlines towards Airbus. Boeing faces both retaliation for US tariffs and high aluminum costs due to tariffs on aluminum imports. Meanwhile, Comac, China’s airline manufacturing company, is coming up.

Artificial Intelligence and Technology

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei wrote an opinion piece arguing against the proposed 10-year ban on state-level regulation of AI, which is present in the US budget reconciliation bill that has reached the Senate. It seems unlikely that the provision will survive the Byrd Rule, but it could be reintroduced later in different legislation.

Amodei’s opinion piece comes after 260 US state lawmakers co-signed an open letter opposing the 10-year ban. Notably, there was an almost exact split between the Republican and Democratic signatories.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, after having voted for the bill without realizing the provision was in there, has come out strongly against it:

I will NOT vote for any bill that destroys states rights and lets AI run wild for the next 10 years. AI will replace jobs, especially in the press.

This is not a left or right issue. It’s about humanity. I’ll go to the mat on this.

Greene has said she expects the bill to come back to the House and to have more opportunities to vote on it in the future.

The US renamed its AI Safety Institute to the U.S. Center for AI Standards and Innovation. “CAISI will focus on demonstrable risks, such as cybersecurity, biosecurity, and chemical weapons.” Here at Sentinel, we think other risks, like loss of control or black swans, are also dangerous and should be investigated.

Anthropic launched an AI for military and intelligence purposes, and Anthropic AI researchers suggested on Dwarkesh’s podcast that one possible future for humans is that of becoming “meat robots”.

Yoshua Bengio announced a new initiative to build AI that is safe by design, Law Zero.

OpenAI released a report on malicious uses of their AI services.

Reuters reported that the US/UAE multi-billion-dollar AI datacenter deal is far from being finalized.

Epoch AI released a database of AI supercomputers:

AI-generated video might be directly optimizable for attention, in a way that is scarier than Tiktok.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released unemployment statistics by college major for recent college grads. Computer engineering grads face an unemployment rate of 7.5% (#3 on the list), computer science grads are at 6.1% (#8), and physics majors are at 7.8% (#2). The US unemployment rate was 4.2% in April.

Biorisks

Artificial universal blood developed by Japanese researchers is in clinical trials at Nara Medical University in Japan, and if all goes well, may be commercially available as early as 2030. The artificial blood is reported to contain “hemoglobin molecules from expired donor blood, which are encapsulated in protective lipid shells to create artificial red blood cells.” The blood can be given to people with any blood type, and it can be stored for up to two years at room temperature. Artificial blood that can be stored at room temperature would be incredibly useful in many situations, including in locations around the world without adequate refrigeration and in military settings.

If vaccination rates in the US were to fall substantially, then cases, hospitalizations, and deaths would surge for multiple diseases. A modeling study found that

At current state-level vaccination rates, measles may become endemic again; increasing vaccine coverage would prevent this. Under a 50% decline in childhood vaccination in the US, the simulation model predicted 51.2 million measles cases over a 25-year period, 9.9 million rubella cases, 4.3 million poliomyelitis cases, 197 diphtheria cases, 10.3 million hospitalizations, and 159 200 deaths.

The CDC official in charge of overseeing updates to Covid vaccine recommendations has resigned, following RFK Jr.’s order that attempted to force the CDC to change its Covid vaccination recommendations to exclude pregnant women and healthy children.

Two Chinese researchers were charged with attempting to smuggle a crop pathogen into the US last July. The couple had conducted research on the pathogen in China, and the man claimed that he had wanted to conduct research on it at the University of Michigan.

A new Covid “variant under monitoring,” designated as NB1.8.1, is spreading faster than previous variants. It does not appear to be more virulent than previous variants and is part of the existing Omicron family.

Whooping cough (pertussis) is on the rise in the Americas and globally. This is another illness that had been largely controlled but is making a resurgence because of the repercussions of post-Covid anti-vax sentiment. With mass vaccinations, a 150x decrease in mortality rates was seen. Pertussis is particularly deadly in infants.

A measles outbreak in Ontario, Canada has eclipsed the US outbreak. Ontario has had 2,009 cases since October and has seen the first death of an infant with measles; the infant contracted the disease in utero from a mother who was not vaccinated. The infant was born premature and had other serious medical problems as well.

Climate and Nature

Insect populations even in protected nature reserves are suffering catastrophic collapse.

A new dataset suggests that global temperatures may have been increasing 6% faster than previously thought.