40% chance that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act, 27% that Musk backs a third party by the midterms
Thanks for the update!
"Last week we forecasted a 0.4% chance for this possibility; we now estimate a ~0.04% chance (range: 0.02% to 0.1%)."
The chance of the risk going back from 0.04 % to 0.4 % should be lower than 10 % (= 0.004/(4*10^-4)).
Mmh, good point to check that we don't expect another flare up; will check with the forecasting team!
Thanks for the update!
"Last week we forecasted a 0.4% chance for this possibility; we now estimate a ~0.04% chance (range: 0.02% to 0.1%)."
The chance of the risk going back from 0.04 % to 0.4 % should be lower than 10 % (= 0.004/(4*10^-4)).
Mmh, good point to check that we don't expect another flare up; will check with the forecasting team!