An additional news item to add about the coming week is that the Trump administration plans to impose a general 50% tariff on goods from India starting tonight. It looks like this is a done deal; it's hard to see what will stop this from happening at this point. India's Modi refuses to bow to Trump's demand to stop buying Russian oil and has reportedly refused to take calls from Trump over recent weeks. And Trump, for his part, has not backed down, either. However, it remains to be seen how long such a high tariff will be in place, if it is indeed imposed.
Exports to the US account for just over 2% of India's GDP, and about 20% of the country's exports worldwide. The high tariff rate will cause substantial economic harm to some of India's export industries, and politically, will likely push India away from the US and towards BRICS countries. India will likely seek greater trade with Europe and the Middle East.
A 50% tariff will have greater effects on some sectors of the Indian economy than on others. Firms that sell textiles, apparel, some machinery and auto parts, gems and jewelry will likely suffer most because their customers are very price-sensitive and competition is steep. Exports of chemicals, electronics and processed foods will probably suffer a bit less. Pharmaceutical sales will probably be least affected, at least in the shorter term, because India dominates the US generics market, and there are currently few alternatives.
Just wanted to say: Thank you for what you’re doing, this has become one of my favorite sources of high-signal news and I‘ve recommended it to a couple of friends!
1. Because data collection in the region is very spotty, making the number of 287 deaths an underestimate. Estimating the number at the beginning of the exponential is hard. And the number is not the actual threshold, the actual threshold would depend on the region. The IPC report mentions the possibility that people are dying of famine on their houses and just not being noticed.
3. However, when writting to a broader audience, we made the judgment call that it makes sense to have some humility here and that focusing on the poor present UN estimate was less important than assessing the possiblity of a threshold like 10k deaths
> On the one hand, releasing all hostages seems to be an Israeli precondition for a ceasefire. But on the other hand, if they did so, Hamas would lose their remaining leverage.
There is also: international pressure on Israel, Hamas still has significant military capabilities, the claim to political legitimacy in Gaza, alliance with regional powers (though ofc strongly weakened)
An additional news item to add about the coming week is that the Trump administration plans to impose a general 50% tariff on goods from India starting tonight. It looks like this is a done deal; it's hard to see what will stop this from happening at this point. India's Modi refuses to bow to Trump's demand to stop buying Russian oil and has reportedly refused to take calls from Trump over recent weeks. And Trump, for his part, has not backed down, either. However, it remains to be seen how long such a high tariff will be in place, if it is indeed imposed.
Exports to the US account for just over 2% of India's GDP, and about 20% of the country's exports worldwide. The high tariff rate will cause substantial economic harm to some of India's export industries, and politically, will likely push India away from the US and towards BRICS countries. India will likely seek greater trade with Europe and the Middle East.
A 50% tariff will have greater effects on some sectors of the Indian economy than on others. Firms that sell textiles, apparel, some machinery and auto parts, gems and jewelry will likely suffer most because their customers are very price-sensitive and competition is steep. Exports of chemicals, electronics and processed foods will probably suffer a bit less. Pharmaceutical sales will probably be least affected, at least in the shorter term, because India dominates the US generics market, and there are currently few alternatives.
Just wanted to say: Thank you for what you’re doing, this has become one of my favorite sources of high-signal news and I‘ve recommended it to a couple of friends!
1. Because data collection in the region is very spotty, making the number of 287 deaths an underestimate. Estimating the number at the beginning of the exponential is hard. And the number is not the actual threshold, the actual threshold would depend on the region. The IPC report mentions the possibility that people are dying of famine on their houses and just not being noticed.
2. We can do the same basic maths as you can. In fact, you can see me going through the same calculus a few days ago here: <https://x.com/NunoSempere/status/1958841139638779906>,
3. However, when writting to a broader audience, we made the judgment call that it makes sense to have some humility here and that focusing on the poor present UN estimate was less important than assessing the possiblity of a threshold like 10k deaths
Banned for unplesasantness.
I think this is my first ban, so writting some more thoughts:
- We are grateful for readers pointing out flaws. For an example of a pretty harsh comment that is totally fine, see: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-262025/comment/130810228
- I tend to generally restack comments that make some contribution, e.g., a Manifold market related to one of our points, thoughtful pushback, etc.
- I think a version of this comment that was more respectful, and that held some uncertainty about us not being innumerate would have been fine.
> On the one hand, releasing all hostages seems to be an Israeli precondition for a ceasefire. But on the other hand, if they did so, Hamas would lose their remaining leverage.
There is also: international pressure on Israel, Hamas still has significant military capabilities, the claim to political legitimacy in Gaza, alliance with regional powers (though ofc strongly weakened)