UN famine declaration, US moving 2.2K marines off the coast of Venezuela, DeepSeek V3.1 released || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #34/2025.

22% chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between now and the end of 2025.

Executive summary

Top items:

• Famine: The UN declared a famine in Gaza.

• Geopolitics: Putin clarifies Russia’s stringent terms for a ceasefire. The US is moving Navy ships with 2.2K Marines to waters off the coast of Venezuela. Some National Guard troops in DC will be armed.

• Tech and AI: DeepSeek released its V3.1 model, a more capable open-source model.

• Biorisk: The American Academy of Pediatrics’ recommendations for Covid vaccines for children now differ from those of the CDC; recommendations that diverge from the CDC’s official list are not shielded from liability.

Forecaster estimates:

• What is the chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between now and the end of 2025? 22%

• What is the chance that Israel and Hamas will agree to a ceasefire by the end of 2025? 34.5%

  • If so, what is the chance that it will include the release of all living hostages? 34%

• What is the chance that Putin and Zelensky will meet by the end of the year? 10%

• What is the chance that Maduro will still be in power on Jan 1, 2026? 88.7%

• Will any US troops be reported to be on the ground in Venezuela in 2025? 10%, though slightly underdefined.

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Geopolitics

Europe

After Trump and Russia met in Alaska, Putin’s terms for Russia to agree to a ceasefire have become clear. Putin demands that Ukraine cede the Donbas region and renounce plans to join NATO. Russia would now be willing to freeze front lines in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, in an apparent concession from Putin’s previous position.

Russia clarified that it is also opposed to security guarantees for Ukraine in the form of European boots on the ground, as well as any guarantees that it cannot personally veto. Given that security guarantees are likely Ukraine’s most important red line, the probability of any ceasefire or peace deal before October 1 now seems very low.

Russia also said that Putin is not ready to meet Ukrainian President Zelensky. The chance of direct talks between Zelensky and Putin in the near future is near zero, as Lavrov has defined terms that are unacceptable to Ukraine. Forecasters estimate that there is a 10% (5% to 42%) chance that Zelensky and Putin will meet by the end of the year.

Perhaps in frustration with the lack of progress towards a ceasefire, Trump again resorted to making threats against Russia, blamed former president Biden for not allowing Ukraine to “fight back” against Russia, and teased that there are “interesting times ahead”.

Ukraine proposed to entice US security guarantees after a potential peace settlement with Russia by suggesting a $100B US weapons purchase to be financed by other European countries. The US said that it would not place boots on ground in Ukraine after a ceasefire is reached, but it could provide air support, although this statement is immaterial as long as peace remains distant.

An IISS report on Russian sabotage in Europe highlights the country’s “gig economy” approach: Russia is increasingly recruiting people from other countries, for instance on Telegram, to carry out acts of sabotage for a fee. It's cheap, it's easy, and it's been quite effective, albeit not without mistakes.

A Russian military drone crashed in Eastern Poland, causing an explosion that “left a crater 6 meters (20 feet) wide.” The explosion “scorched a cornfield in the village of Osiny in the eastern Lublin province overnight, just over 100 km (62 miles) from the Ukrainian border and around 90 km from Belarus.” Radar systems did not detect the drone.

And: Belarus says it is looking at how to arm its missile systems with nuclear warheads, Sweden plans to build more nuclear plants with US or UK technology, and Italian police arrested a Ukrainian man over the Nord Stream pipeline attacks.

Middle East

Gaza

The UN-backed IPC Global Famine Review Committee (report, dashboard, archive link) declared a Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Gaza, in the Gaza City area, for the first time since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war. Israel has sole authority over how much food, water, fuel, and medical supplies enter Gaza, and consequently, the report describes the famine as “man-made”.

So far, the White House has remained silent. US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee wrote on X that, “Tons of food has gone into Gaza but Hamas savages stole it, ate lots of it to become corpulent.” While tons of food have made it into Gaza, it is estimated that ~2,000 tons or 600 truckloads a day are necessary to meet the needs of the population.

Although the UN did declare a famine, forecasters are uncertain whether the IPC’s famine threshold of 2 out of every 10K adults (or 4 in 10K children) dying has been met.

Forecasters estimate a 22% (10% to 45%) probability that more than 10,000 people will die of hunger by the end of the year in Gaza. On the one hand, Israel can let in more aid and avoid large numbers of deaths. On the other hand, there have been 281 cumulative deaths from hunger over the course of the war, many of which have occurred in the past couple of weeks, so it's plausible that this could happen if the famine continues to spread and it turns out that we are at the beginning of an exponential. Israel’s planned Gaza City operation is likely to make the situation much worse. Internal dissent might force Netanyahu to moderate his stance, but hardliners are dominant in his coalition.

Hamas approved a ceasefire proposal by Qatar and Egypt, and Israel is now weighing its response. In the meantime, the Israeli military is calling up 60k reservists to expand operations in Gaza City. Israel’s defense minister warned that Gaza City could be destroyed if Hamas does not agree to its terms to end the war.

Forecasters estimate a 34.5% (18% to 55%) probability that Israel and Hamas will agree to a ceasefire by the end of 2025. On the one hand, forecasters commented that Hamas could realize that the alternative to reaching an agreement would be a worse outcome. But on the other hand, Israel's strategy doesn't seem to route through a ceasefire, and Netanyahu's electoral constraints make this fairly unlikely.

Conditional on a ceasefire, forecasters estimate a 33.6% (10% to 70%) chance that it will include the release of all living hostages. On the one hand, releasing all hostages seems to be an Israeli precondition for a ceasefire. But on the other hand, if they did so, Hamas would lose their remaining leverage.

Iran

Iran held its first solo military drills since its war with Israel and said that it has developed more advanced missiles that it will use if attacked again. Iranian President Pezeshkian visited Armenia and Belarus.

A potential conflict between Iran and Afghanistan is looming over water from the Helmand River.

Yemen

Israel struck targets in the Yemeni capital of Sana’a, in retaliation for Houthi missile and drone launches towards Israel.

United States

Starting Sunday night, some National Guard troops in DC will be armed. Trump also said he would probably want to deploy troops to crack down on crime in Chicago next, followed by New York; he later mentioned the possibility of sending troops to Baltimore, as well.

The Pentagon fired the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency. The DIA’s initial assessment of the US air strike against Iran’s nuclear program contradicted Trump’s statement that Iran’s nuclear program was “obliterated.” There is increasing pressure to conform to the Administration’s talking points or face termination. A lack of independent advice increases the risk of mistakes in foreign policy.

Former National Security Advisor John Bolton’s home and office were searched by the FBI “to determine whether he illegally shared or possessed classified information.” Some forecasters are concerned about this as a move to intimidate and silence political opponents.

The State Department is reviewing the records of 55M immigrants holding visas for “deportable offenses, including overstays, criminal activity and engagement in any form of ‘terrorist activity.’” Moreover, the department stated that all US visa holders, including foreign students and tourists, will undergo “continuous vetting.” The Trump administration has so far revoked more than 6,000 student visas.

Homeland Security Secretary Noem wants ICE to have its own fleet of airplanes for deporting immigrants. Maintaining its own planes would be costly, but with its own fleet of 30 planes, ICE could potentially double its deportation rate.

Director of National Intelligence Gabbard will cut staff at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence by nearly 50% and will shrink the Foreign Malign Influence Center. She claims that these functions are covered by other intelligence agencies. Meanwhile, the FBI is warning that “Russian FSB cyber actors are targeting end-of-life networking devices across critical infrastructure sectors.” And the Chief of Staff of the Air Force will retire early, in an apparent continuation of a shakeup among military leadership.

Talking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump pushed for Putin to be invited to the World Cup to be held in the US in 2026, while holding a photo of the two of them taken at their meeting in Alaska. Trump said he planned to sign the photo and send it back to Putin as a gift. “I was just sent a picture from somebody that wants to be there very badly,” Mr. Trump said. “He’s been very respectful of me and of our country, but not so respectful of others.”

Oklahoma will require applicants for teaching jobs coming from California and New York to “pass an exam that the Republican-dominated state’s top education official says is designed to safeguard against ‘radical leftist ideology,’ but which opponents decry as a ‘MAGA loyalty test.’” The exam will be administered by PragerU, an Oklahoma-based conservative nonprofit.

And: Trump’s approval rating is 40%, an all-time low for his second-term. Also, Texas passed a redistricting measure that would result in more Republicans being elected to Congress; the bill will next go to the governor’s desk to be signed into law.

The Rest of the Americas

The US is sending three guided-missile destroyers, the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group, which comprises three ships, a submarine, and the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit, with 2,200 Marines, to waters outside Venezuela – all ostensibly to combat drug trafficking from the country. However, as a defense official remarked, deploying all this firepower and these personnel against drug cartels would be like “bringing a howitzer to a knife fight”.

There is some speculation that the US may be preparing for some level of involvement in ousting Maduro from power in Venezuela. White House spokesperson Leavitt, when asked whether the US planned to place boots on the ground in Venezuela, neither confirmed nor refuted the possibility, instead remarking that, “The Maduro regime is not the legitimate government of Venezuela. It is a narco-terror cartel.” The Trump administration also recently increased the bounty for Maduro’s arrest to $50M.

The Maduro regime has responded by activating 4.5M militia and banning the sale, purchase or operation of drones. Maduro previously survived a drone attack.

Forecasters estimate that there is a 88.7% (30%, 91%, and 3x 95%) chance that Maduro will still be in power on January 1, 2026. Forecasters point out that Maduro is 63 years old and likely obese, but interpret recent US moves differently. Forecasters also estimated a 9.9% (2%, 3% to 7%, 7%, 2%, 10%, 55%) probability that US troops will be reported to be on the ground in Venezuela in 2025 as well¹.

Haitian gangs may be using Bahamian banks to launder money.

Asia

South Asia

India successfully tested an intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Agni-5, that is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead to any part of China.

Since PM Sheikh Hasina was ousted in August 2024, Bangladesh has become somewhat unstable. A news report alleges that supporters of the former regime are being targeted, both through the court system and extrajudicially through mob violence.

East Asia

Taiwan’s citizens did not vote in large enough numbers to restart a nuclear power plant, in a referendum held just three months after shutting it down. Although they endorsed the proposition by an almost 3-to-1 margin, the 25% turnout threshold was not met. Opposition parties in the country had pushed for the vote amid concerns about energy security in the event of a Chinese blockade or invasion and the impact of AI on the electric grid. Taiwan relies on imported fossil fuels to meet 95% of its energy demand.

On the same day, opposition lawmakers in Taiwan again survived an attempt by groups aligned with the ruling party to remove them from their seats via a recall election. The ruling DPP, which occupies the Presidency, does not control the Legislative Yuan. The opposition parties are relatively more China-friendly, so China will be satisfied with the results of the recall elections.

Kim Jong-un presented North Korean troops who fought for Russia with medals and honored fallen soldiers. And he called for rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal, following the launch of US-South Korean joint military exercises. And, North Korea now has a covert base near China that can house 6-9 ICBMs that could reach the US, together with their mobile launchers and thousands of soldiers, a new report from CSIS says. Forecasters commented that Kim Jong-un might feel ignored after not being the subject of international attention for a relatively long time.

In response to a claim by Trump that Xi Jinping told him that China would not invade Taiwan while Trump is president, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that Taiwan is an internal matter for China. She added that, "We will do our utmost to strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification. But we will never allow anyone or any force to separate Taiwan from China in any way."

And: In China, satellites in the Guowang network, a rival to Starlink, are being launched at a rapid pace. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization will hold a summit in Tianjin China, August 31-September 1. Heads of state from more than 20 Eurasian countries, including Putin, along with UN chief Guterres, plan to attend to discuss political and security cooperation.

Africa

In eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), 141 villagers in at least 14 villages were reportedly massacred by M23 rebels in July. The M23 rebels were reportedly targeting the Hutu extremist militia Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). A peace brokered by the US between the DRC government and M23 requires the DRC government to dismantle the FDLR. However, there has been little change on the ground since the peace agreement was signed two months ago; M23 and the DRC military have resumed attacks against each other, and M23 claims that DRC forces are striking civilian areas as well.

Some are warning that an ISIS resurgence in Africa poses a “real and present danger” to the West.

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk warned that AI is “obviously gonna one-shot the human limbic system”, and Microsoft’s AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman warned about AI psychosis.

Some academics have been exploring the idea of “model welfare”, the principle that we will have “a duty to extend moral consideration to beings that have a non-negligible chance” of, in effect, being conscious, and that as a result, “some AI systems will be welfare subjects and moral patients in the near future”. One forecaster worries that speculation about whether AI models are conscious will be its own danger, as it will exacerbate delusions, create more emotional dependence on these models, and open more fronts for psychological vulnerabilities.

Anthropic’s Claude chatbot can now end “persistently harmful or abusive” user interactions – with the goal of helping the “potential welfare” of Anthropic’s AIs. Previously, an AI startup, Auren, had implemented the same measure, so it’s interesting to see model welfare interventions being diffused or reinvented.

DeepSeek V3.1 was released. Despite the small version-number bump, the improvements are significant; for example, the new model took DeepSeek’s highest score from 45.4% on SWE-bench to 66% (vs. top models with scaffolding of 75%). This is also the first “hybrid” version of DeepSeek’s models, which allows for both reasoning and regular modes of use with a single model, unlike R1.

The US government has acquired 9.9% of Intel stock. The government’s shares are non-voting, and their market value at acquisition equaled the monetary value of Intel’s previous and upcoming subsidies received through the CHIPS Act and other government programs. Intel’s announcement describes this transfer as the US government “buying” these shares, while a post from Trump on Truth Social stated that, “The United States paid nothing for these Shares.”

US Senator Josh Hawley has said that he will be investigating Meta’s AI policies pertaining to the behavior of their AIs towards children, after backlash against a leaked internal Meta policy document that said their AIs could engage children in romantic or sensual conversations. The policy has reportedly since been changed.

And: Grok’s “MechaHitler” episode reportedly cost xAI a government contract, and TikTok is laying off hundreds of moderation staff and will replace them with AIs. Anthropic and the US government built a classifier to detect traffic relevant to nuclear risk. Some AI safety researchers aren’t saving for retirement.

Thanks to @anpaure for help drafting this section this week.

Economy

Fed chair Powell indicated that the US Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in September. Also in the US, professional investors have been selling off ETFs throughout 2025, but individual investors have been snatching them up. This may not bode well for individual investors.

In response to US tariffs, Apple is expanding production in India of iPhones for US markets.

Amid thawing relations between China and India, China has lifted restrictions on exporting rare earths to India. India has been a hub for the transshipment of Russian oil, and it may now become a hub for the transshipment of rare earths from China to the US. China has curbed exports of rare earths to the US for leverage in trade negotiations with the US over tariffs.

Chinese refineries have been buying up Russian oil as demand from India falls. Indian purchases of Russian oil have fallen off because of threats of secondary tariffs from the Trump administration, which are intended to increase pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine. At least for now, China is not being threatened with secondary tariffs if the country buys Russian oil.

Other technology

A company in China hopes to release a humanoid robot next year that contains a “gestation chamber” with “an artificial womb so it can carry a full-term pregnancy”. Previously, an artificial “biobag” has been used to keep premature lambs alive, but experts caution that there’s a large leap from lambs to humans; they are skeptical that the technology is mature and warn of health and ethical risks even if it could bring a baby to term.

Biorisks

In Ghana, veterinarians, farmers and local governments will work to contain an African swine fever outbreak that has so far affected more than 200 pigs.

For the first time in 30 years, American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) vaccine recommendations differ from those of the CDC; the AAP strongly recommends Covid shots for young children, but the CDC does not. In response, RFK Jr warned that the AAP should "be candid with doctors and hospitals that recommendations that diverge from the CDC’s official list are not shielded from liability under the 1986 Vaccine Injury Act."

Climate and Nature

A Nature study projects that Antarctica will likely have no sea ice in the summer before the same happens in the Arctic. The loss of sea ice is projected to have catastrophic changes for species that rely on it, including emperor penguins.

A study of large dengue outbreaks in the Americas found that the outbreaks tend to occur about five months after an El Niño event, about three months after summer temperatures peak, and roughly one month after rainfall peaks.

1. Our forecast is somewhat unspecified, since we didn’t think about a minimum troop threshold, and we are not sure about how we would resolve this question in the case of an individual raid on a narcotics target.