Executive summary
Thanks, as always highly appreciated.
> Our forecasters’ aggregate 50th percentile estimate for how many [Ebola] deaths there will be on June 13, 2026 is 208 (185 to 230).
Do you have more forecasts on this that more specifically capture the tail risks? E.g. those seem more directly informative:
P(confirmed case in a major city outside DRC and Uganda by August 1)
P(cumulative confirmed deaths ≥ 1,000 by September 1)
P(confirmed case outside Africa by September 1)
Yeah, I agree, should have done 90% ile estimates.
Thanks, as always highly appreciated.
> Our forecasters’ aggregate 50th percentile estimate for how many [Ebola] deaths there will be on June 13, 2026 is 208 (185 to 230).
Do you have more forecasts on this that more specifically capture the tail risks? E.g. those seem more directly informative:
P(confirmed case in a major city outside DRC and Uganda by August 1)
P(cumulative confirmed deaths ≥ 1,000 by September 1)
P(confirmed case outside Africa by September 1)
Yeah, I agree, should have done 90% ile estimates.