This connects with something I’ve been thinking about in the Ebola response: the difference between border-focused policy and containment at source. I wrote about this recently from a public health systems angle.
Is it correct that all the dates in the consumer price index value for Motor oil, coolant, and fluids section are 2026? I'm confused that some of the forecast period is before the baseline.
This connects with something I’ve been thinking about in the Ebola response: the difference between border-focused policy and containment at source. I wrote about this recently from a public health systems angle.
Kindly read my full article here: https://wsthhealth.substack.com/p/ebola-is-not-someone-elses-problem?r=8dds4n&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Is it correct that all the dates in the consumer price index value for Motor oil, coolant, and fluids section are 2026? I'm confused that some of the forecast period is before the baseline.
Good brief.
Thanks, as always highly appreciated.
> Our forecasters’ aggregate 50th percentile estimate for how many [Ebola] deaths there will be on June 13, 2026 is 208 (185 to 230).
Do you have more forecasts on this that more specifically capture the tail risks? E.g. those seem more directly informative:
P(confirmed case in a major city outside DRC and Uganda by August 1)
P(cumulative confirmed deaths ≥ 1,000 by September 1)
P(confirmed case outside Africa by September 1)
Yeah, I agree, should have done 90% ile estimates.