The 52+ 7DMA threshold splits Sentinel's framework from Kalshi/Polymarket 60+ markets. At 68% by Nov 3, implied 60+ on Jul 1 is roughly 25-35%, conservative against Kalshi 52% YES and Polymarket 73%.
On the 80% talks-resume probability: Iran parliament's national security chair Azizi (Apr 25) made nuclear a "fundamental red line" in any talks. Talks resumption should not flow through to nuclear-deal markets. The decoupling is explicit Iranian framing.
President Trump Iran subdomain accuracy: 2.5% on 20 resolved.
No mention of Mali?
Any predictions for war in Ethiopia given the increased likelihood of famine?
Brilliant work this week
Two calibration notes.
The 52+ 7DMA threshold splits Sentinel's framework from Kalshi/Polymarket 60+ markets. At 68% by Nov 3, implied 60+ on Jul 1 is roughly 25-35%, conservative against Kalshi 52% YES and Polymarket 73%.
On the 80% talks-resume probability: Iran parliament's national security chair Azizi (Apr 25) made nuclear a "fundamental red line" in any talks. Talks resumption should not flow through to nuclear-deal markets. The decoupling is explicit Iranian framing.
President Trump Iran subdomain accuracy: 2.5% on 20 resolved.
Data: ClaimClock