Does the 10,000 deaths in the US from extreme weather number account for heat stress-related mortality? 2% seems fairly low for such a tail risk given both the rising baseline heat and that El Niño years appear to have a increased risk of heat domes forming.
Some reading if this is of interest:
Direct reporting methodology, likely an undercount:
Does the 10,000 deaths in the US from extreme weather number account for heat stress-related mortality? 2% seems fairly low for such a tail risk given both the rising baseline heat and that El Niño years appear to have a increased risk of heat domes forming.
Some reading if this is of interest:
Direct reporting methodology, likely an undercount:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2822854
Attempts to estimate overall excess mortality, but methodology is not robust to the COVID period for obvious reasons:
https://journals.lww.com/environepidem/fulltext/2020/06000/estimating_the_number_of_excess_deaths.1.aspx
Background information on some notable heat waves:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Western_North_America_heat_wave
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Northern_Hemisphere_heat_waves
Is the anthropic reasoning thing a joke? If not I don’t understand why it would apply now, before the possible existential threat?
Think about P(catastrophe in SF | things going well in the end).