If Sentinel used an analog scale (say 1-10, with 1 being world peace and 10 being DEFCON 1) for its alert level instead of binary (green, yellow, red), what do you think the time vs. alert level would look like over the past 10 years? Has it slowly risen? Stayed relatively low with a few spikes and extended durations at higher values? Taken a permanent step function up at points because of some event(s)?
While I'm fairly confident this is mostly availability bias on my end, it feels like things have gotten more unstable, especially because of the second Trump administration and AI capabilities ramping up so quickly. I don't remember as much actually-newsworthy news during Trump 1 and before the AI labs started cooking.
If there's a ~50% chance the straight of hormuz will remain closed until Nov, I'd expect European gas prices to be higher. Any thoughts on why there's a discrepancy?
What's the probability that the US will deploy robots (like the ones used by Ukraine) in Iran or Cuba?
What do you think the odds are that the Zelenskyy statement is true in the way you’re talking about it?
If you have a counterexample let us know! Looking at the prose it does look a bit purple.
I just mean the reality of what happened on the ground in a war zone is hard to know and the combatants are biased.
If Sentinel used an analog scale (say 1-10, with 1 being world peace and 10 being DEFCON 1) for its alert level instead of binary (green, yellow, red), what do you think the time vs. alert level would look like over the past 10 years? Has it slowly risen? Stayed relatively low with a few spikes and extended durations at higher values? Taken a permanent step function up at points because of some event(s)?
While I'm fairly confident this is mostly availability bias on my end, it feels like things have gotten more unstable, especially because of the second Trump administration and AI capabilities ramping up so quickly. I don't remember as much actually-newsworthy news during Trump 1 and before the AI labs started cooking.
Great writeup as always!
If there's a ~50% chance the straight of hormuz will remain closed until Nov, I'd expect European gas prices to be higher. Any thoughts on why there's a discrepancy?
https://www.ice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=6277389&span=2
Discrepancy or market opportunity? Also we’re not forecasting closed, we’re forecasting not continuously open for 30 days