🟨 "I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace", Iran halts executions, OpenAI/Musk emails and notes || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #3/2026

Executive summary

Tech and AI: Emails and personal notes written by Greg Brockman that improve Elon Musk’s position in his lawsuit against OpenAI and others were revealed during the lawsuit’s discovery phase.

• Forecasters think there’s a 31% (15% to 40%) chance that Elon Musk will win at least $40 billion in his case against OpenAI.

Geopolitics: Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on imports from eight European countries that oppose US ownership of Greenland, and writes that he “no longer feel[s] an obligation to think purely of Peace”. Iran halted planned executions of protesters after threats of US intervention.

• Forecasters think there’s a 21% (9.0% to 40%) chance that an execution of an imprisoned Iranian protester occurs before March 2026, and a 34% (20% to 70%) that the US carries out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026.

• They also think there’s a 8.6% (2% to 49%) that the Iranian regime falls before March, a 24% (12% to 67%) chance before July, and a 34% (18% to 70%) before 2027. This would have to involve the IRGC no longer holding power in the country. Forecasters are generally split, with most forecasters clustering at 5%/15%/20% for the three time periods and one being more certain and thus bringing our aggregate higher.

• They believe there’s a 16% (10% to 25%) probability that Congress will pass a bill before the end of 2026 that prevents the US from annexing Greenland.

• They think there’s a 31% (18% to 50%) chance that the Venezuelan government will announce a date for Presidential elections before the end of 2026.

Economics: Trump indicated that Kevin Warsh, the more institutional and establishment candidate, is now the favourite to become his nominee for chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. France suggested deploying the EU’s powerful “anti-coercion instrument” in retailation against US tariffs.

Our alert level is at yellow 🟨: Trump’s push for Greenland is resulting in a more rapid decoupling between the US and the EU, UK & Canada, and it damages NATO. Meanwhile, ICE deployments and the backlash against them increase US domestic instability. We recommend increased alertness but no particular costly action at the individual level yet.

Geopolitics

Europe

Trump announced that starting in February, the US would impose an additional 10% tariff on imports from eight European countries that oppose US ownership of Greenland: Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland. Trump said that the tariff would increase to 25% on June 1 if no deal for the US to purchase Greenland had been reached by then.

These countries had sent a small number of military personnel to Greenland on a reconnaissance mission ahead of joint military exercises later this year that Denmark invited the US to participate in. Those countries frame the exercise as a as demonstration to Trump that Europe is serious about defending the Arctic from Russian and Chinese interference. However, another aim may have been to signal to the US that they were willing to defend Greenland if the US were to take it by force, and Trump appears to have interpreted the deployments in this manner, saying that the troops had “journeyed to Greenland, for purposes unknown” and that they were playing a “very dangerous game”.

Trump later wrote, in an exchange with Norway’s Prime Minister, that because he was not awarded the Nobel Peace Prize by a Norwegian committee, he “no longer feel[s] an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant…” and reiterated that he wants “Complete and Total Control of Greenland”. Some forecasters worry about Trump’s mental state, and point out that he has sole launch authority.

Whether or not the tariffs go ahead may depend on the Supreme Court’s upcoming ruling on the legality of Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose previous tariffs, and on whether there is enough Congressional opposition to Trump’s designs on Greenland. A bipartisan delegation of members of Congress, including Republican senators Lisa Murkowski and Thom Tillis, visited Denmark during the week to try to de-escalate tensions and reassure Denmark and Greenlanders. Forecasters think there’s a 16% (10% to 25%) chance that Congress will pass a bill that attempts to stop the US from annexing Greenland before the end of the year. Two such bills have been introduced in the House and Senate. Even if such a bill were passed, it’s possible that Trump could veto it.

In the meantime, the EU and the UK are weighing up how to respond to Trump’s threats. France has suggested deploying the bloc’s new ‘anti-coercion instrument’, commonly described as a ‘bazooka’ that would restrict US companies’ access to the European Single Market. Other members prefer continued negotiations, and UK Prime Minister Starmer indicated that a trade war would not be in Britain’s interests, while calling Trump’s threats “completely wrong”. Italian Prime Minister Meloni, whose country is not directly affected, attempted to clarify the purpose of the deployments to Greenland in a call with Trump.

Earlier in the week, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Danish officials at the White House to discuss Greenland. Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said that the meeting was “constructive” but that Trump’s wish to own Greenland is “totally unacceptable”. A working group was formed to “focus on how to address the American security concerns while at the same time respecting the red lines of the Kingdom of Denmark.” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that an attempt by the US military to seize Greenland would be “the end of NATO”.

A forecaster writes:

> The US already has the right to station as many soldiers on Greenland as necessary for security. Taking it by force or coerced purchase risks losing Canada, Iceland, the UK, and Norway as close partners for defense of the Arctic. It will mean a massive economic and defense schism with Europe. Even the threat of the move, and the announcement of tariffs, have already done lasting damage. Greenland is a litmus test for whether pressure can be applied to Trump behind the scenes from US businesses, financiers, defense companies, and moderates at State, DOD, and Congress to avoid a catastrophe. I think they will prevail, and that is why my forecast is low. [If Trump does take Greenland], it would be a point of no return, and if the EU/NATO permits it without massive economic retaliation and moving to a form of military alliance without the US, they will have succumbed to a Neville Chamberlain “Peace in our times” Munich Agreement level of humiliation.

Middle East

Iran halted its planned executions of protesters after the US threatened to militarily intervene in the country and evacuated some personnel from an air base in Qatar. However, some Iranian hardliners, including cleric Ahmad Khatami, are calling for executions to go ahead. Meanwhile, Iran’s Ayatollah blamed US interference for the killing of thousands of protesters.

While protests in Iran have fallen off over the past week, the situation remains tense. Internet access remains largely blocked, but the regime appears to be testing limited filtered access.

The US is building up military assets in the Middle East in preparation for potential strikes on Iran. The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is also en route to the region, and it is estimated that the carrier and its strike group will be within strike range of Iran in about 4 days.

However, as the WSJ pointed out, one of the biggest problems the Iranian regime is facing is the impending collapse of its banking system. And fundamentally, Iran’s zombie¹ banks are teetering on the edge because of corruption, mismanagement, and sanctions, the same trifecta that have also held back the economy. If key banks fail, it could become increasingly difficult for the regime to pay members of its security forces, including primarily the IRGC, and an inability to pay those forces would pose an existential risk for the regime.

The collapse of Iran’s currency will also make it difficult for Iran to import food. Wheat is the greatest source of calories for people in Iran; people in Iran have also traditionally eaten rice at least once per day. The country imports both wheat and rice for domestic consumption. The regime reportedly has 3-4 months’ worth of wheat consumption stockpiled currently, and it will continue to subsidize foreign currency exchange for wheat imports. But rice importers are suffering, as their foreign exchange subsidy has been suspended.

Overall, forecasters think there’s a 21% (9.0% to 40%) that an execution of an imprisoned protester occurs before March 2026, and a 34% (20% to 70%) that the US carries out a strike on Iranian territory by the end of March. On the one hand, executing prisoners would antagonize the US further and risk strikes, but on the other hand, not doing so would make the regime appear weak and antagonize hardliners. It’s possible the regime could wait until there is some distraction in the geopolitical theater.

A forecaster writes:

> Without the protests, the US and Israel want to continue strikes against Iran’s nuclear program. The protests present the challenge that if strikes are limited, the government can be internally strengthened by them as a diversion from the protests and to strengthen the narrative of external meddling. Unless there is successful decapitation strike, the regime is unlikely to be sufficiently weakened through a series of limited strikes. Serbia absorbed 3,000 cruise missile strikes and more than 23,000 aerial sorties without collapsing. Their economic position was stronger and they had better internal cohesion, but it highlights the difficulty of regime change purely through aerial bombardment. Trump may be lulled into overestimating the ability of the US military to force quick change, like the capture of Maduro, or may be reminded of the difficulty of dislodging the Houthis. In the March-May 2025 conflict with the Houthis more than 1,000 sorties were flown and were not decisive.

They also think there’s a 8.6% (2% to 49%) that the Iranian regime falls before March, a 24% (12% to 67%) before July, and a 34% (18% to 70%) before 2027. This would have to involve the IRGC no longer holding power in the country.

The Syrian government has signed an agreement with the main Kurdish force in the northeast of the country that ends fighting and will bring the region under the control of the central government.

The Americas

Latin America

The Director of the CIA, John Ratcliffe, visited Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodriguez, in Venezuela. To some forecasters, this is a sign of continued US pressure on the regime in Caracas but also of tacit cooperation between Rodriguez and the Trump administration that may have pre-dated former President Maduro’s capture. However, Maria Corina Machado, Venezuela’s main opposition leader, is trying to persuade Trump to back regime change or at least elections in Venezuela. To that end, she gifted him the Nobel Peace Prize that she won last year. Forecasters think there’s a 31% (18% to 50%) chance that the Venezuelan government will announce a date for presidential elections by the end of 2026. Forecasters generally see elections as risky for the current equilibrium.

Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba have stopped since the US captured former Venezuelan President Maduro, and Cuba has not been able to make up for the resulting shortage. Cuba relies on imported oil for electricity generation, and electricity for its water supply, and the country was already in a power crisis before losing its supply of oil from Venezuela. Many wonder whether the economy and government will collapse under the strain. Trump said, “we’re talking to Cuba, and you’ll find out pretty soon.”

United States

Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act and deploy the military to help with law enforcement in Minneapolis, MN, where ICE agents are conducting immigration enforcement amid protests. The situation remains tense in Minneapolis since the fatal shooting of a protester by an ICE agent in the city on January 7. On Friday, Trump told reporters that he did not currently see a need to invoke the Insurrection Act but that, “if I needed it, I’d use it.”

A federal judge ordered ICE agents not to retaliate against people “engaging in peaceful and unobstructive protest activity” in the state and not to stop drivers who are not “forcibly obstructing” officers.

About 1,500 soldiers in the Army’s 11th Airborne Division have been given orders to prepare to deploy to Minnesota. While these orders have been given as part of prudent military planning for the possibility that Trump could invoke the Insurrection Act and order troops to Minnesota, one former-military observer interprets this as a sign of an invasion of Greenland instead, since “Minnesota would be a good place to interim stage these forces in the lower 48. Because Canada won’t let them fly over…”

In an interview with the New York Times, Trump said that he should have ordered the National Guard to seize voting machines in swing states after he lost the 2020 election. And in an interview with Reuters, Trump said, referring to the upcoming midterm elections, that, “when you think of it, we shouldn’t even have an election.”

Asia

China imposed an import ban on Nvidia’s H200 chips, which were cleared for export to China by the Trump administration.

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney visited China. The two countries lowered tariffs on each other’s goods and hailed their “new strategic partnership”.

Africa

Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Somalia are discussing a potential security agreement to counter UAE influence in the Horn of Africa.

Sudan’s government returned to the capital, Khartoum, after nearly three years of civil war. Sudan’s armed forces are also preparing operations to retake the Kordofan and Darfur regions from the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Technology and artificial intelligence

Court files from Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI allege that Greg Brockman plotted with Sam Altman to oust Musk in order to establish a for-profit business without him. Brockman’s diary produced during the discovery phase of the trial contains fragments like “another realization from [this meeting] is that it’d be wrong to steal the non-profit from him. to convert to a b-corp without him. that’d be pretty morally bankrupt. and he’s really not an idiot.” OpenAI argues that Musk is cherry-picking evidence and taking quotes out of context. Forecasters think there’s a 31% (15% to 40%) chance that Musk wins at least $40 billion as a result of the lawsuit, though one forecaster expressed skepticism that funds would be given to Musk personally, rather than remaining in a 501c3 institution.

X said that Grok will no longer be able to produce non-consensual sexualised images of real people in jurisdictions where this is illegal, after the platform was threatened with a UK ban and a law making the creation of such imagery illegal was brought into force in Britain.

California’s attorney general, Rob Bonta, sent a cease and desist letter to xAI, saying that it has to stop the generation and distribution of non-consensual sexual imagery. Meanwhile, the UK’s Ofcom regulator opened an investigation into Grok. Canada’s privacy watchdog expanded its probe into X, while Malaysian and Japanese officials are also looking into it. In the US Senate, a bill was passed that would allow nonconsensual deepfake victims to sue those who use an AI to create such images for civil damages. The Spanish cabinet approved draft legislation to curb deepfakes.

Ashley St. Clair, the mother of one of Musk’s children, opened a lawsuit against xAI over Grok allegedly generating sexual deepfakes of her, including images from when she was a child.

A Claude Code prompt-injection vulnerability that allows attackers to extract a victim’s files made its way to Claude Cowork. The vulnerability was first disclosed in October and has been acknowledged by Anthropic, but it still has not been fixed.

The Center for AI Standards and Innovation put out a request for information seeking insights in relation to the secure development and deployment of AI agents.

The White House released scant details about a national AI legislative framework.

Apple and Google announced a multi-year deal to use Gemini models for Siri, starting later this year. With this agreement, Apple has cast its vote that Google’s AI models will outcompete OpenAI’s.

Microsoft took down the website and platform of RedVDS, a company that sold subscriptions for access to AI-enabled tools for cyber fraud. Microsoft identified almost 190,000 organizations worldwide that lost millions of dollars to fraud enabled by RedVDS, with the US, the UK and Canada most affected.

Near the end of the Biden administration, the US purchased a device that produces pulsed radio waves and may be linked to Havana syndrome, and the Department of War has been testing it. That device appears to be different from a sonic weapon used by the US military in Venezuela.

Economy

Trump indicated that he wants Kevin Hassett, currently director of the White House’s National Economic Council, to stay in his post rather than become Federal Reserve chairman. Given that Trump again indicated that his Fed Chair pick will likely be one of the “two Kevins”, Kevin Warsh is now seen as the most likely pick, and Trump was notably impressed by Warsh’s “good looks”. Markets slightly scaled back their bets on rapid interest rate cuts in 2026 because Warsh, who served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011, is generally seen as the more ‘establishment’ or ‘institutional’ option. He is viewed as more ‘hawkish’ on monetary policy and advocated fiscal austerity in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.

1. At least 5 of Iran's banks are zombie banks in the sense that their capital adequacy ratios (CAR) are below 0% and they require government support. The Basel II CAR requirement for internationally active banks is 8%. Bank Sepah is at -23%