Status: Greenish 🟢. North Korea performed an ICBM test, France depends on Russia’s Rosatom for nuclear fuel, upcoming US election has some tail risk, H5N1 and monkeypox continue spreading.
> a 7% probability (range: 4%-10%) to Trump being inaugurated as President by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court on January 20, 2025 conditional on the Associated Press declaring his opponent the winner of the election
Seems surprisingly high to me, would be interested in seeing your reasoning. I imagine AP would not declare a winner if there's a non-negligible chance that a recount would change the outcome?
France is _not_ to my knowledge dependent on Russia for nuclear fuel, and the article does not say that. Rather some eastern European countries that have contracts with French company Orano are.
> a 7% probability (range: 4%-10%) to Trump being inaugurated as President by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court on January 20, 2025 conditional on the Associated Press declaring his opponent the winner of the election
Seems surprisingly high to me, would be interested in seeing your reasoning. I imagine AP would not declare a winner if there's a non-negligible chance that a recount would change the outcome?
France is _not_ to my knowledge dependent on Russia for nuclear fuel, and the article does not say that. Rather some eastern European countries that have contracts with French company Orano are.
You are right, thanks, I pattern matched too hard here.