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🟩 CIA authorized to operate in Venezuela, Trump walks back China tariff threat, Budapest to host US-Russia meeting on Ukraine || Global…
90% (86% to 92%) chance that former US National Security Advisor John Bolton will be convicted.
Oct 20
•
Nuño Sempere
,
Vidur Kapur
,
belikewater
, and
Tolga Bilge
16
4
🟢 Gaza ceasefire agreed, Trump threatens 100% tariffs on China, OpenAI subpoena controversy || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #41/2025.
Executive summary
Oct 13
•
Nuño Sempere
,
belikewater
,
Vidur Kapur
, and
Tolga Bilge
22
How AI Will Transform Military Command and Control - Paul Scharre
Listen now | A conversation with Paul Scharre, author of Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence joins us to talk about
Oct 9
•
Rai Sur
,
Nuño Sempere
, and
belikewater
10
1:29:54
🟢 California AI bill passed, Trump tries to send National Guard to Portland, US economy warning signs | Global Risks Weekly Roundup…
Hamas agreed to some parts of a 20-point US peace plan. Ukraine continues to target Russia’s oil refineries.
Oct 6
•
Nuño Sempere
,
Tolga Bilge
,
belikewater
, and
Vidur Kapur
20
5
September 2025
🟢 NATO may shoot down Russian jets next time, US gov may shutdown, no global AI red lines | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #39/2025
More drone sightings, EU still considering shooting down Russian jets next time, probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in the next year slightly…
Sep 29
•
Nuño Sempere
,
Vidur Kapur
,
belikewater
, and
Tolga Bilge
19
1
🟡 US comedian’s show suspended after government pressure, Russian jets flew over Estonia, open-source AIs designed new genome variants …
Overall, the combination of continued violations of NATO airspace, the FCC exerting pressure on a network to fire a comedian, and the new AI generated…
Sep 22
•
Nuño Sempere
32
6
🟢 Russian drones shot down over Poland, Israel strikes Qatar, Trump ally assassinated | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #37/2025.
OpenAI and Oracle signed a $300B deal, which would lead to Oracle displacing Microsoft to become OpenAI’s largest compute provider; the deal lifted…
Sep 15
•
Nuño Sempere
,
Vidur Kapur
,
belikewater
, and
Tolga Bilge
24
3
Dangers of Recommender Systems - Ivan Vendrov
Ivan Vendrov and top Sentinel forecasters discuss recommender systems and their impact on human attention and society.
Sep 11
•
Rai Sur
,
Ivan Vendrov
,
Nuño Sempere
, and
Vidur Kapur
11
5
1:08:32
Possible postwar Ukraine security guarantees ready, chikungunya outbreak grows in China, weak jobs numbers suggest Fed rate cut likely …
Executive Summary
Sep 8
•
Nuño Sempere
,
belikewater
,
Tolga Bilge
, and
Vidur Kapur
19
3
Houthi PM and cabinet killed, RFK Jr. fires CDC director, Trump fires Federal Reserve Governor, $200M pro-AI lobbying group launched …
43% probability that the Houthis will sink at least one ship between now and the end of September.
Sep 1
•
Nuño Sempere
,
belikewater
,
Tolga Bilge
, and
Vidur Kapur
25
12
August 2025
UN famine declaration, US moving 2.2K marines off the coast of Venezuela, DeepSeek V3.1 released || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #34/2025.
22% chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between now and the end of 2025.
Aug 25
•
Nuño Sempere
,
belikewater
,
Vidur Kapur
,
Tolga Bilge
, and
anpaure
25
6
Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, FARC spinout drone attacks || Global Risks Weekly…
Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.
Aug 18
•
Nuño Sempere
,
belikewater
,
Tolga Bilge
, and
Vidur Kapur
16
2
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