Subscribe
Sign in
Home
Archive
About
Latest
Top
Discussions
Sentinel minutes for week #51/2024: OpenAI o3 model, a reference class for solar superflares, and a streetlight effect in H5N1
Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢
Dec 23
•
Nuño Sempere
18
Share this post
Sentinel minutes
Sentinel minutes for week #51/2024: OpenAI o3 model, a reference class for solar superflares, and a streetlight effect in H5N1
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Sentinel minutes for week #50/2024: Mirror life
Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢
Dec 16
•
Nuño Sempere
,
Tolga Bilge
, and
Vidur Kapur
18
Share this post
Sentinel minutes
Sentinel minutes for week #50/2024: Mirror life
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
5
Sentinel minutes for week #49/2024: Damascus falls, Congo mystery illness
Status: Greenish 🟢
Dec 9
•
Nuño Sempere
8
Share this post
Sentinel minutes
Sentinel minutes for week #49/2024: Damascus falls, Congo mystery illness
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
3
Sentinel minutes for week #48/2024: Aleppo, Romania presidential election, and the long tail of H5N1 impact
Status: Greenish 🟢
Dec 2
•
Nuño Sempere
12
Share this post
Sentinel minutes
Sentinel minutes for week #48/2024: Aleppo, Romania presidential election, and the long tail of H5N1 impact
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
2
November 2024
Sentinel minutes for week #47/2024. Internet cables, AGI Manhattan Project, DeepSeek model.
Status: greenish.
Nov 25
•
Nuño Sempere
11
Share this post
Sentinel minutes
Sentinel minutes for week #47/2024. Internet cables, AGI Manhattan Project, DeepSeek model.
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Sentinel minutes for week #46/2024
Status: greenish; forecasters don't anticipate events spiraling into global catastrophes this week. H5N1 spreads further in North America, tensions…
Nov 18
•
Nuño Sempere
12
Share this post
Sentinel minutes
Sentinel minutes for week #46/2024
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Sentinel minutes for week #45/2024
Status: Greenish 🟢. Russia revealed to cover 3-5% of North Korea's yearly calorie consumption in exchange for soldiers. The Russia-Ukraine war might…
Nov 11
•
Nuño Sempere
8
Share this post
Sentinel minutes
Sentinel minutes for week #45/2024
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
4
Sentinel minutes for week #44/2024: North Korea tests ICBM.
Status: Greenish 🟢. North Korea performed an ICBM test, France depends on Russia’s Rosatom for nuclear fuel, upcoming US election has some tail risk…
Nov 4
•
Nuño Sempere
5
Share this post
Sentinel minutes
Sentinel minutes for week #44/2024: North Korea tests ICBM.
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
3
October 2024
Sentinel minutes for week #43/2024
Status: greenish. Tensions between Israel and Iran remain high while mpox continues to spread and H5N1 surveillance remains spotty
Oct 28
•
Nuño Sempere
7
Share this post
Sentinel minutes
Sentinel minutes for week #43/2024
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
1
How Likely Are Various Precursors of Existential Risk?
War (23%), natural pandemic (22%), the unexpected (21%), WW3 specifically (12%), AI (10%), ..., US civil war (0.92%), solar storm (0.2%), asteroid…
Oct 22
•
Nuño Sempere
12
Share this post
Sentinel minutes
How Likely Are Various Precursors of Existential Risk?
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Sentinel minutes for week #42/2024
Status: Greenish. The prospect of a larger regional war receded as Israel said it would attack Iranian military rather than nuclear or oil targets. Mpox…
Oct 21
•
Nuño Sempere
10
Share this post
Sentinel minutes
Sentinel minutes for week #42/2024
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Sentinel minutes for week #41/2024
Status: Greenish 🟢. We decided to lower the Sentinel status, because it looks as though Israel won’t be bombarding nuclear sites in Iran.
Oct 14
•
Nuño Sempere
8
Share this post
Sentinel minutes
Sentinel minutes for week #41/2024
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Share
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please
turn on JavaScript
or unblock scripts