Sentinel Global Risks Watch

Sentinel Global Risks Watch

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June 2025

🟢 Iran ceasefire holding, AI regulation moratorium watered down, US executive power unhobbled | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #26/2025.
Iran, NATO increased spending, video addictions.
 • 
Nuño Sempere
, 
belikewater
, 
Vidur Kapur
, 
Tolga Bilge
, and 
scott eastmanphoto.com
3
Iranian Regime Change? - Unpacking Broad Disagreement Between the Forecasters
Listen now | Unpacking Broad Disagreement Between the Forecasters
 • 
Rai Sur
, 
Nuño Sempere
, 
Vidur Kapur
, and 
belikewater
52:12
🟢 US bombs Iran, India again rejects water treaty | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #25/2025.
Executive summary
 • 
Nuño Sempere
, 
Vidur Kapur
, 
belikewater
, 
scott eastmanphoto.com
, and 
Tolga Bilge
5
🟡 Israel attacks Iran, US protests continue, China deploys 2 aircraft carriers in Pacific | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #24/2025
and, the Gentle Singularity.
 • 
Nuño Sempere
, 
belikewater
, 
Tolga Bilge
, and 
Vidur Kapur
1
Making sense of Israel’s strikes on Iran
until midnight NYC time.
 • 
Nuño Sempere
 and 
belikewater
5
Trump sent the National Guard to Los Angeles, Russia intensified conventional attacks on Ukraine, US-Iran nuclear talks continue | Global…
40% chance that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act, 27% that Musk backs a third party by the midterms
 • 
Nuño Sempere
, 
Tolga Bilge
, 
belikewater
, and 
Vidur Kapur
2
Ukraine drones destroy 41 Russian planes, proposed taxes on foreign investment, uranium enrichment continues in Iran | Global Risks Weekly…
Executive summary
 • 
Nuño Sempere
, 
belikewater
, 
Vidur Kapur
, and 
Tolga Bilge

May 2025

Endgames and escalations of the US and Japan's expensive debt problem – Itay Vinik
Listen now | Itay Vinik is the cofounder and Chief Investment Officer of Equi, an alternatives investment fund that deeply considers rare market…
 • 
Rai Sur
, 
Nuño Sempere
, and 
belikewater
2
45:37
Iran nuclear talks survive, Claude 4 release, trade tensions reignite | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #21/2025.
...and the short term-chance of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan this year and the next.
 • 
Nuño Sempere
, 
Vidur Kapur
, 
belikewater
, and 
Tolga Bilge
US credit rating downgraded, $1T in Gulf state investments in the US, Kurdistan Workers’ Party disbanded | Global Risks Weekly Roundup…
Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating, Gulf states agreed to more than $1T in US investments and joint enterprises during a visit by Trump to the…
 • 
Nuño Sempere
, 
belikewater
, 
Tolga Bilge
, and 
Vidur Kapur
7
Scott Eastman – Sentinel Forecaster Introduction
Listen now | Scott Eastman has been professionally forecasting for over a decade with major forecasting groups, some of which advise the US intelligence…
 • 
Rai Sur
45:50
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