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🟩 Iran drought warning, rebels agree to Sudan ceasefire, Trump tariffs threatened || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #45/2025
Executive summary
Nov 10
•
Nuño Sempere
,
Vidur Kapur
,
belikewater
, and
Tolga Bilge
20
5
6
🟩 Trump threatens to send troops to Nigeria and denies Venezuela attack plans, China-US trade détente || Global Risks Weekly Roundup…
Iran is carrying out more construction in and around a mountainous nuclear site. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured the city of el-Fasher in…
Nov 3
•
Nuño Sempere
,
belikewater
,
Vidur Kapur
, and
Tolga Bilge
21
3
October 2025
🟩 Aircraft carrier ordered near Venezuela, chance of Trump 3rd term, bird flu spreading with fall migration || Global Risks Weekly Roundup…
Executive summary
Oct 27
•
Nuño Sempere
,
Vidur Kapur
,
Tolga Bilge
, and
belikewater
28
5
🟩 CIA authorized to operate in Venezuela, Trump walks back China tariff threat, Budapest to host US-Russia meeting on Ukraine || Global…
90% (86% to 92%) chance that former US National Security Advisor John Bolton will be convicted.
Oct 20
•
Nuño Sempere
,
Vidur Kapur
,
belikewater
, and
Tolga Bilge
19
4
3
🟢 Gaza ceasefire agreed, Trump threatens 100% tariffs on China, OpenAI subpoena controversy || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #41/2025.
Executive summary
Oct 13
•
Nuño Sempere
,
belikewater
,
Vidur Kapur
, and
Tolga Bilge
22
4
How AI Will Transform Military Command and Control - Paul Scharre
Listen now | A conversation with Paul Scharre, author of Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence joins us to talk about
Oct 9
•
Rai Sur
,
Nuño Sempere
, and
belikewater
11
3
1:29:54
🟢 California AI bill passed, Trump tries to send National Guard to Portland, US economy warning signs | Global Risks Weekly Roundup…
Hamas agreed to some parts of a 20-point US peace plan. Ukraine continues to target Russia’s oil refineries.
Oct 6
•
Nuño Sempere
,
Tolga Bilge
,
belikewater
, and
Vidur Kapur
20
5
4
September 2025
🟢 NATO may shoot down Russian jets next time, US gov may shutdown, no global AI red lines | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #39/2025
More drone sightings, EU still considering shooting down Russian jets next time, probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in the next year slightly…
Sep 29
•
Nuño Sempere
,
Vidur Kapur
,
belikewater
, and
Tolga Bilge
19
1
5
🟡 US comedian’s show suspended after government pressure, Russian jets flew over Estonia, open-source AIs designed new genome variants …
Overall, the combination of continued violations of NATO airspace, the FCC exerting pressure on a network to fire a comedian, and the new AI generated…
Sep 22
•
Nuño Sempere
32
6
5
🟢 Russian drones shot down over Poland, Israel strikes Qatar, Trump ally assassinated | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #37/2025.
OpenAI and Oracle signed a $300B deal, which would lead to Oracle displacing Microsoft to become OpenAI’s largest compute provider; the deal lifted…
Sep 15
•
Nuño Sempere
,
Vidur Kapur
,
belikewater
, and
Tolga Bilge
24
3
4
Dangers of Recommender Systems - Ivan Vendrov
Ivan Vendrov and top Sentinel forecasters discuss recommender systems and their impact on human attention and society.
Sep 11
•
Rai Sur
,
Ivan Vendrov
,
Nuño Sempere
, and
Vidur Kapur
11
5
4
1:08:32
Possible postwar Ukraine security guarantees ready, chikungunya outbreak grows in China, weak jobs numbers suggest Fed rate cut likely …
Executive Summary
Sep 8
•
Nuño Sempere
,
belikewater
,
Tolga Bilge
, and
Vidur Kapur
19
3
5
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