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Houthi PM and cabinet killed, RFK Jr. fires CDC director, Trump fires Federal Reserve Governor, $200M pro-AI lobbying group launched …
43% probability that the Houthis will sink at least one ship between now and the end of September.
Sep 1
•
Nuño Sempere
,
belikewater
,
Tolga Bilge
, and
Vidur Kapur
25
12
August 2025
UN famine declaration, US moving 2.2K marines off the coast of Venezuela, DeepSeek V3.1 released || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #34/2025.
22% chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between now and the end of 2025.
Aug 25
•
Nuño Sempere
,
belikewater
,
Vidur Kapur
,
Tolga Bilge
, and
anpaure
25
6
Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, FARC spinout drone attacks || Global Risks Weekly…
Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.
Aug 18
•
Nuño Sempere
,
belikewater
,
Tolga Bilge
, and
Vidur Kapur
16
2
Israel preparing to take over Gaza City, ceasefire in Ukraine unlikely to happen soon, Trump deploying National Guard in DC, GPT-5 released…
Status: green
Aug 11
•
Nuño Sempere
,
belikewater
,
Vidur Kapur
, and
Tolga Bilge
22
4
Gaza hunger, US GDP growth driven by AI capex, Trump fires labor statistics commissioner | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #31/2025
Executive summary
Aug 4
•
Nuño Sempere
,
Tolga Bilge
,
Vidur Kapur
, and
belikewater
29
1
July 2025
🟢 Thailand v. Cambodia clashes erupted and resolved, White House AI Action Plan released, Anthropic faces billion-dollar lawsuit | Global…
Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached...
Jul 28
•
Nuño Sempere
,
belikewater
,
Tolga Bilge
, and
Vidur Kapur
14
3
🟢 Taiwan defense rehearsals, Israel-Syria ceasefire, IMO Gold at OpenAI | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #29/2025.
Executive summary
Jul 21
•
Nuño Sempere
,
Vidur Kapur
,
belikewater
, and
Tolga Bilge
16
1
🟢 Houthis sink ships, US tariffs for US allies and secondary tariff threats for Russia, Grok and Kimi model releases | Global Risks Weekly…
The Houthis sank two ships last week, new powerful open source model released.
Jul 14
•
Nuño Sempere
,
belikewater
,
Vidur Kapur
, and
Tolga Bilge
20
2
🟢 Big Beautiful Bill passed in the US, Russia using chemical weapons in Ukraine, Musk announced new America Party | Global Risks Weekly…
US/Israel attacks on Iran delayed it by 1 to 37 months.
Jul 7
•
Nuño Sempere
,
Tolga Bilge
,
belikewater
, and
Vidur Kapur
14
2
June 2025
🟢 Iran ceasefire holding, AI regulation moratorium watered down, US executive power unhobbled | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #26/2025.
Iran, NATO increased spending, video addictions.
Jun 30
•
Nuño Sempere
,
belikewater
,
Vidur Kapur
, and
Tolga Bilge
14
3
Iranian Regime Change? - Unpacking Broad Disagreement Between the Forecasters
Listen now | Unpacking Broad Disagreement Between the Forecasters
Jun 27
•
Rai Sur
,
Nuño Sempere
,
Vidur Kapur
, and
belikewater
10
52:12
🟢 US bombs Iran, India again rejects water treaty | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #25/2025.
Executive summary
Jun 23
•
Nuño Sempere
,
Vidur Kapur
,
belikewater
, and
Tolga Bilge
23
5
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