Sentinel Global Risks Watch

California AI bill passed, Trump tries to send National Guard to Portland, US economy warning signs | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #40/2025

Hamas agreed to some parts of a 20-point US peace plan. Ukraine continues to target Russia’s oil refineries.

Oct 6 • 

Nuño Sempere

, 

Tolga Bilge

, 

belikewater

, and 

Vidur Kapur

16

2

September 2025

🟢 NATO may shoot down Russian jets next time, US gov may shutdown, no global AI red lines | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #39/2025

More drone sightings, EU still considering shooting down Russian jets next time, probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in the next year slightly…

Sep 29 • 

Nuño Sempere

, 

Vidur Kapur

, 

belikewater

, and 

Tolga Bilge

17

1

🟡 US comedian’s show suspended after government pressure, Russian jets flew over Estonia, open-source AIs designed new genome variants …

Overall, the combination of continued violations of NATO airspace, the FCC exerting pressure on a network to fire a comedian, and the new AI generated…

Sep 22 • 

Nuño Sempere

32

6

🟢 Russian drones shot down over Poland, Israel strikes Qatar, Trump ally assassinated | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #37/2025.

OpenAI and Oracle signed a $300B deal, which would lead to Oracle displacing Microsoft to become OpenAI’s largest compute provider; the deal lifted…

Sep 15 • 

Nuño Sempere

, 

Vidur Kapur

, 

belikewater

, and 

Tolga Bilge

24

3

Dangers of Recommender Systems - Ivan Vendrov

Ivan Vendrov and top Sentinel forecasters discuss recommender systems and their impact on human attention and society.

Sep 11 • 

Rai Sur

, 

Ivan Vendrov

, 

Nuño Sempere

, and 

Vidur Kapur

11

5

1:08:32

Possible postwar Ukraine security guarantees ready, chikungunya outbreak grows in China, weak jobs numbers suggest Fed rate cut likely …

Executive Summary

Sep 8 • 

Nuño Sempere

, 

belikewater

, 

Tolga Bilge

, and 

Vidur Kapur

19

3

Houthi PM and cabinet killed, RFK Jr. fires CDC director, Trump fires Federal Reserve Governor, $200M pro-AI lobbying group launched …

43% probability that the Houthis will sink at least one ship between now and the end of September.

Sep 1 • 

Nuño Sempere

, 

belikewater

, 

Tolga Bilge

, and 

Vidur Kapur

25

12

August 2025

UN famine declaration, US moving 2.2K marines off the coast of Venezuela, DeepSeek V3.1 released || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #34/2025.

22% chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between now and the end of 2025.

Aug 25 • 

Nuño Sempere

, 

belikewater

, 

Vidur Kapur

, 

Tolga Bilge

, and 

anpaure

25

6

Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, ​FARC spinout drone attacks || Global Risks Weekly…

Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.

Aug 18 • 

Nuño Sempere

, 

belikewater

, 

Tolga Bilge

, and 

Vidur Kapur

16

2

Israel preparing to take over Gaza City, ceasefire in Ukraine unlikely to happen soon, Trump deploying National Guard in DC, GPT-5 released…

Status: green

Aug 11 • 

Nuño Sempere

, 

belikewater

, 

Vidur Kapur

, and 

Tolga Bilge

22

4

Gaza hunger, US GDP growth driven by AI capex, Trump fires labor statistics commissioner | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #31/2025

Executive summary

Aug 4 • 

Nuño Sempere

, 

Tolga Bilge

, 

Vidur Kapur

, and 

belikewater

29

1

July 2025

🟢 Thailand v. Cambodia clashes erupted and resolved, White House AI Action Plan released, Anthropic faces billion-dollar lawsuit | Global…

Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached...

Jul 28 • 

Nuño Sempere

, 

belikewater

, 

Tolga Bilge

, and 

Vidur Kapur

14

3