Archive - Sentinel minutes

Sentinel minutes for week #51/2024: OpenAI o3 model, a reference class for solar superflares, and a streetlight effect in H5N1

Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Dec 23 •

Sentinel minutes for week #50/2024: Mirror life

Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Dec 16 •

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Sentinel minutes for week #49/2024: Damascus falls, Congo mystery illness

Status: Greenish 🟢

Dec 9 •

Sentinel minutes for week #48/2024: Aleppo, Romania presidential election, and the long tail of H5N1 impact

Status: Greenish 🟢

Dec 2 •

November 2024

Sentinel minutes for week #47/2024. Internet cables, AGI Manhattan Project, DeepSeek model.

Status: greenish.

Nov 25 •

Sentinel minutes for week #46/2024

Status: greenish; forecasters don't anticipate events spiraling into global catastrophes this week. H5N1 spreads further in North America, tensions…

Nov 18 •

Sentinel minutes for week #45/2024

Status: Greenish 🟢. Russia revealed to cover 3-5% of North Korea's yearly calorie consumption in exchange for soldiers. The Russia-Ukraine war might…

Nov 11 •

Sentinel minutes for week #44/2024: North Korea tests ICBM.

Status: Greenish 🟢. North Korea performed an ICBM test, France depends on Russia’s Rosatom for nuclear fuel, upcoming US election has some tail risk…

Nov 4 •

October 2024

Sentinel minutes for week #43/2024

Status: greenish. Tensions between Israel and Iran remain high while mpox continues to spread and H5N1 surveillance remains spotty

Oct 28 •

How Likely Are Various Precursors of Existential Risk?

War (23%), natural pandemic (22%), the unexpected (21%), WW3 specifically (12%), AI (10%), ..., US civil war (0.92%), solar storm (0.2%), asteroid…

Oct 22 •

Sentinel minutes for week #42/2024

Status: Greenish. The prospect of a larger regional war receded as Israel said it would attack Iranian military rather than nuclear or oil targets. Mpox…

Oct 21 •

Sentinel minutes for week #41/2024

Status: Greenish 🟢. We decided to lower the Sentinel status, because it looks as though Israel won’t be bombarding nuclear sites in Iran.

Oct 14 •

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